{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "517A",
    "name": "iFreeETF US Dollar Bear (1x)",
    "exchange": "JPX"
  },
  "latest_week": "2026-08-07",
  "latest_close": 1963.0,
  "latest_open": 1950.021565,
  "latest_high": 1993.0,
  "latest_low": 1938.0,
  "bar_count": 24,
  "analysis_bar_count": 24,
  "reversal_percent": 5.0,
  "model": {
    "version": "ewc-2.1.0",
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "index": 23,
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "price": 1963.0,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": null,
      "weeks": 0,
      "confirmed": false
    }
  ],
  "cycle": {
    "phase": "falling",
    "trend_bias": "bearish",
    "oscillator": -1.063768874203591,
    "slope": -0.6841855132420912,
    "dominant_period_weeks": 40,
    "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing",
    "weeks_since_turn": null,
    "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": null,
    "series": [
      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": -0.3795833609614997
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": -0.9289785046611297
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": -1.4151667834060868
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": -1.7415692658374546
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": -1.063768874203591
      }
    ]
  },
  "hurst": {
    "status": "mixed",
    "phase": "rising",
    "alignment_score": 75,
    "risk_score": 25,
    "trough_alignment": 0,
    "crest_alignment": 0,
    "nearest_trough_window": 17,
    "nearest_crest_window": null,
    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
    "cycles": [
      {
        "period": 10,
        "label": "10w",
        "estimated_period": 10,
        "period_range": [
          8,
          12
        ],
        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "rising",
        "value": 0.47871018267715837,
        "slope": 1.6062565079405156,
        "amplitude": 0.979,
        "weeks_since_trough": 6,
        "weeks_since_crest": 4,
        "projected_trough_window": 4,
        "projected_crest_window": 6,
        "trough_window": {
          "start": 2,
          "midpoint": 4,
          "end": 6
        },
        "crest_window": {
          "start": 4,
          "midpoint": 6,
          "end": 8
        },
        "fld": {
          "value": 1920.536288,
          "state": "crossed up",
          "weeks_since_cross": 1,
          "displacement": 5,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": true,
          "value": 1882.6,
          "state": "price above",
          "slope": -4.4,
          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
        },
        "trough_indexes": [
          12,
          17
        ],
        "series": [
          {
            "date": "2026-02-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-06",
            "value": null
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          {
            "date": "2026-03-13",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-10",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-01",
            "value": -1.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "value": -0.24947495704193834
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "value": -0.749824985680646
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-22",
            "value": -1.2634004542976596
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-29",
            "value": -1.1894325044518894
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-05",
            "value": -0.995931205970704
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "value": -0.47159803371787146
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "value": -0.8776971697787819
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "value": -1.3351888449756144
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-03",
            "value": -1.1387119745268788
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-10",
            "value": -0.976431656146815
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "value": -1.127546325263357
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "value": -1.1023276543546996
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "value": -0.8068985318515091
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "value": 0.47871018267715837
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "period": 20,
        "label": "20w",
        "estimated_period": 20,
        "period_range": [
          15,
          25
        ],
        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "troughing",
        "value": -0.40656904326833143,
        "slope": 0.6604914521061237,
        "amplitude": 1.603,
        "weeks_since_trough": 3,
        "weeks_since_crest": null,
        "projected_trough_window": 17,
        "projected_crest_window": null,
        "trough_window": {
          "start": 12,
          "midpoint": 17,
          "end": 22
        },
        "crest_window": null,
        "fld": {
          "value": 1931.5,
          "state": "crossed up",
          "weeks_since_cross": 0,
          "displacement": 10,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": false,
          "value": null,
          "state": "unavailable"
        },
        "trough_indexes": [
          20
        ],
        "series": [
          {
            "date": "2026-02-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-06",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-13",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-10",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-01",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-22",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-29",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-05",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-03",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-10",
            "value": -1.0
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "value": -1.0670604953744551
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "value": -1.0379254600665333
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "value": -0.963630512636476
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "value": -0.40656904326833143
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        ]
      },
      {
        "period": 40,
        "label": "40w",
        "estimated_period": 40,
        "period_range": [
          30,
          50
        ],
        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "warming",
        "value": null,
        "slope": 0.0,
        "amplitude": null,
        "weeks_since_trough": null,
        "weeks_since_crest": null,
        "projected_trough_window": null,
        "projected_crest_window": null,
        "trough_window": null,
        "crest_window": null,
        "fld": {
          "value": 1961.0,
          "state": "crossed up",
          "weeks_since_cross": 0,
          "displacement": 20,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": false,
          "value": null,
          "state": "unavailable"
        },
        "trough_indexes": [],
        "series": [
          {
            "date": "2026-02-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-06",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-13",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-10",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-01",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-22",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-29",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-05",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-03",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-10",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "value": null
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "period": 80,
        "label": "80w",
        "estimated_period": 80,
        "period_range": [
          61,
          99
        ],
        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "warming",
        "value": null,
        "slope": 0.0,
        "amplitude": null,
        "weeks_since_trough": null,
        "weeks_since_crest": null,
        "projected_trough_window": null,
        "projected_crest_window": null,
        "trough_window": null,
        "crest_window": null,
        "fld": {
          "value": null,
          "state": "unconfirmed",
          "weeks_since_cross": null,
          "displacement": 40,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": false,
          "value": null,
          "state": "unavailable"
        },
        "trough_indexes": [],
        "series": [
          {
            "date": "2026-02-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-06",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-13",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-10",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-01",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-22",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-05-29",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-05",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-03",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-10",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "value": null
          },
          {
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "value": null
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "composite": [
      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "value": -1.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": -0.2494749570419383
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "value": -0.749824985680646
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": -1.2634004542976596
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": -1.1894325044518894
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": -0.995931205970704
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": -0.47159803371787146
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": -0.8776971697787819
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": -1.3351888449756144
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": -1.1387119745268788
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": -0.990572662458726
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": -1.091254827330016
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": -1.0636863377817998
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": -0.9009377203224891
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": -0.052457352890135506
      }
    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": null,
    "alternates": [],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.5,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. 0 of 3 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 2.1844392345950703
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -0.7583417593528817
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 2000.02002,
      "low_52": 1879.057149,
      "position_52": 69.39555113568696,
      "drawdown": -1.8509824716654553
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 8.610707846127601,
      "average_weekly_range": 1.3058305489597377,
      "active_drawdown": -1.85
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": null,
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": null,
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": null,
      "fair_value": 1945.71669,
      "trend_gap": null,
      "fair_value_gap": 0.8882747467207073
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": null,
      "to": {
        "index": 23,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 1963.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": null,
      "weeks": 0,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The 30-week trend line is not available."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "+0.0",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        }
      ],
      "positive": 0,
      "negative": 1,
      "neutral": 2,
      "observed": 3,
      "agreement": 33,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 20,
      "history_score": 9,
      "indicator_coverage": 38,
      "structure_score": 0,
      "weekly_observations": 24,
      "confirmed_pivots": 0
    },
    "volume_ratio": 32.212178222364976,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "observing",
      "label": "Observing",
      "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.",
      "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.",
      "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.",
      "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 16,
      "constructive_percent": 67,
      "rising_cycle_count": 6,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 25,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
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          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
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        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 0,
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          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
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        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^N225",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": null,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 25,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 0.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 69% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 25,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
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