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103.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.5169498066647478, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 99.090912, "confirmation": 107.272728, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 23 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 61, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 107.73; Wave B 107.27.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 8.64; C length 3.77.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.44\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 257, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 107.727272, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.40601448916809, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 99.090912, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.01687431572573, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 269, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 107.272728, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.256878289706323, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 103.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.5169498066647478, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 103.5, "confirmation": 107.272728, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 19 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 86.35; Wave B 89.47.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 21.30; C length 14.03.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.66\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 217, "date": "2025-06-27", "price": 86.346878, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -51.24321920269216, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 226, "date": "2025-08-29", "price": 107.643188, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.66367110574628, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 238, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 89.470009, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.882795221561064, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 103.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.681222296512784, "weeks": 37, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 103.5, "confirmation": 89.470009, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 58 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 12.40802667091208, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 86.35; Wave B 89.47.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 21.30; C length 14.03.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.66\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 217, "date": "2025-06-27", "price": 86.346878, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -51.24321920269216, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 226, "date": "2025-08-29", "price": 107.643188, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.66367110574628, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 238, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 89.470009, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.882795221561064, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 103.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.681222296512784, "weeks": 37, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 103.5, "confirmation": 89.470009, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 58 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 12.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 7.755016669320049, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 99.09; Wave 2 103.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 46% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 99.090912, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.01687431572573, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 269, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 107.272728, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.256878289706323, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 103.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.5169498066647478, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 99.090912, "confirmation": 107.272728, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 23 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 7.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 5.428511668524034, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 99.09; Wave 2 103.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 46% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 99.090912, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.01687431572573, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 269, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 107.272728, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.256878289706323, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 103.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.5169498066647478, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 99.090912, "confirmation": 107.272728, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave2_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 85, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 99.090912, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.01687431572573, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 269, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 107.272728, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.256878289706323, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 103.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.5169498066647478, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup.", "30-week price rate of change is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 2.3216485470844863, "fair_value_gap": -22.662428757059015, "market_activity": 13.969056, "market_dynamics": 0.048176, "relative_strength": -25.819936, "roc30": 14.012742130154816, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 2.3% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.4807692307692308 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -0.13157544321316986 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 13.467225463334644 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 16.21728567623638 } ], "range": { "high_52": 110.909088, "low_52": 83.636435, "position_52": 72.83327001593868, "drawdown": -6.680325421123287 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 23.47565106411946, "average_weekly_range": 5.2469737762020054, "active_drawdown": -50.59630970185374 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 99.090912, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.01687431572573, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 269, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 107.272728, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.256878289706323, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 99.090912, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.01687431572573, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 101.151615, "fair_value": 133.828873, "trend_gap": 2.3216485470844863, "fair_value_gap": -22.662428757059015 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 269, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 107.272728, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.256878289706323, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 103.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.5169498066647478, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -3.5169498066647478, "weeks": 6, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "2.3% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-25.8", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+14.0", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.0", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+14.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 23 }, "volume_ratio": 115.55144949952509, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 67, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 66, "positive_rate": 60.6, "median_return": 2.2, "bar_width": 11.0, "average_return": 7.48, "best_return": 46.08, "worst_return": -16.0 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 58, "positive_rate": 72.4, "median_return": 14.96, "bar_width": 74.80000000000001, "average_return": 27.31, "best_return": 100.48, "worst_return": -28.44 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 49, "positive_rate": 83.7, "median_return": 50.49, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 67.41, "best_return": 219.88, "worst_return": -41.97 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 107.27, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 99.09; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 42, "rising_cycle_count": 6, "rising_cycle_percent": 25, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 154, "positive_rate": 53.2, "median_return": 0.33, "average_return": 0.77, "median_excess_return": -1.1, "excess_observations": 154, "p10": -4.77, "p90": 5.69 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 97, "positive_rate": 50.5, "median_return": 0.16, "average_return": 0.26, "median_excess_return": -5.09, "excess_observations": 97, "p10": -9.06, "p90": 9.19 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 81, "positive_rate": 48.1, "median_return": -0.55, "average_return": 1.53, "median_excess_return": -8.35, "excess_observations": 81, "p10": -13.2, "p90": 11.26 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 4.259988405797099, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 28, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 2.3% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 73% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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