{ "ticker": { "symbol": "FDND", "name": "FT VEST DOW JONES INTERNET & TARGET INCOME ETF", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-31", "latest_close": 21.61, "latest_open": 20.75, "latest_high": 21.6749, "latest_low": 20.48, "bar_count": 124, "analysis_bar_count": 124, "reversal_percent": 6.0611315335217, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-31", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 53, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 18.420832, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 16.553055, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.139482299170853, "weeks": 1, 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"primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 20.36; Wave 2 21.61.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 9% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 20.360785, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.099243503603326, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 120, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 21.731806, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.733635269956433, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 21.61, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.5604964447041328, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 20.360785, "confirmation": 21.731806, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 21 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.40; Wave B 21.73.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 2.04; C length 0.12.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.06\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 114, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 22.398917, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.712638884854478, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 20.360785, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.099243503603326, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 120, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 21.731806, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.733635269956433, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 21.61, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.5604964447041328, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 21.61, "confirmation": 21.731806, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 21 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 70, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 20.36; Wave B 20.44.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.37; C length 1.17.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.85\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 20.360785, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.099243503603326, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 120, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 21.731806, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.733635269956433, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 20.4386, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.950752551352602, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 21.61, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.731312320804744, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 21.61, "confirmation": 20.4386, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 58 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 9.697810453634721, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 23.29; Wave 2 21.61.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 65% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 78, "date": "2025-09-19", "price": 23.287479, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 40.683873762275304, "weeks": 24, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 18.555569, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -20.31954596716975, "weeks": 27, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 21.61, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.460993462393965, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 23.287479, "confirmation": 18.555569, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 9.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 6.0611315335217, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 20.36; Wave 2 21.61.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 9% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 20.360785, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.099243503603326, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 120, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 21.731806, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.733635269956433, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 21.61, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.5604964447041328, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 20.360785, "confirmation": 21.731806, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 21 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.24279207346519, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 70, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 20.36; Wave B 20.44.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.37; C length 1.17.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.85\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 20.360785, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.099243503603326, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 120, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 21.731806, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.733635269956433, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 20.4386, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.950752551352602, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 21.61, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.731312320804744, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 21.61, "confirmation": 20.4386, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 58 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave_hurst_confluence", "title": "Wave + Hurst trough confluence", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 20.360785, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.099243503603326, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 120, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 21.731806, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.733635269956433, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 21.61, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.5604964447041328, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 4.569321258004252, "fair_value_gap": 9.353626451655463, "market_activity": 7.121874, "market_dynamics": 0.07121, "relative_strength": -7.070032, "roc30": 0.6878972914489606, "hurst_alignment": 100, "hurst_risk": 0 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as wave + hurst trough confluence. Price is 4.6% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 2.802131110536548 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 1.7320912446001007 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 2.433868533311013 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 0.27927383327662847 } ], "range": { "high_52": 23.341714, "low_52": 18.5154, "position_52": 64.11932584576967, "drawdown": -7.418966747686139 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 23.62931868542035, "average_weekly_range": 4.057689980301759, "active_drawdown": -7.203351638019735 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 20.360785, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.099243503603326, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 120, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 21.731806, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.733635269956433, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 20.360785, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.099243503603326, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 20.665717, "fair_value": 19.761576, "trend_gap": 4.569321258004252, "fair_value_gap": 9.353626451655463 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 120, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 21.731806, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.733635269956433, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 21.61, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.5604964447041328, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -0.5604964447041328, "weeks": 3, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "4.6% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-7.1", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+7.1", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 1, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 82, "history_score": 48, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 124, "confirmed_pivots": 7 }, "volume_ratio": 142.5645697835998, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 29, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 29, "positive_rate": 62.1, "median_return": 1.55, "bar_width": 7.75, "average_return": 0.63, "best_return": 5.97, "worst_return": -9.1 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 21, "positive_rate": 61.9, "median_return": 3.04, "bar_width": 15.2, "average_return": 1.99, "best_return": 11.96, "worst_return": -7.99 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 21, "positive_rate": 38.1, "median_return": -3.18, "bar_width": 15.9, "average_return": -4.66, "best_return": 5.93, "worst_return": -18.75 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 21.73, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 20.36; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 59, "rising_cycle_count": 6, "rising_cycle_percent": 35, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 482, "positive_rate": 64.3, "median_return": 0.68, "average_return": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.48, "excess_observations": 482, "p10": -4.84, "p90": 6.12 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 167, "positive_rate": 69.5, "median_return": 1.98, "average_return": 3.27, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 167, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 12.5 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 68.1, "median_return": 3.1, "average_return": 3.0, "median_excess_return": -2.71, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -11.14, "p90": 16.18 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 5.780726515502081, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 8, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 4.6% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 64% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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