{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "SGBS",
    "name": "WisdomTree Physical Swiss Gold",
    "exchange": "AMS"
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  "latest_open": 336.829987,
  "latest_high": 360.829987,
  "latest_low": 333.820007,
  "bar_count": 30,
  "analysis_bar_count": 30,
  "reversal_percent": 5.181710829644552,
  "model": {
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    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
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      "date": "2026-03-13",
      "price": 421.420013,
      "kind": "high",
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    {
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      "date": "2026-07-17",
      "price": 335.23999,
      "kind": "low",
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      "weeks": 17,
      "confirmed": true
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    {
      "index": 29,
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "price": 359.809998,
      "kind": "high",
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    "trend_bias": "bearish",
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    "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing",
    "weeks_since_turn": 3,
    "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 17,
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        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": -10.506093422925893
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        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": -9.926829578848562
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  "hurst": {
    "status": "mixed",
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    "alignment_score": 75,
    "risk_score": 25,
    "trough_alignment": 0,
    "crest_alignment": 0,
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    "nearest_crest_window": 11,
    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
    "cycles": [
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          12
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        "amplitude": 3.555,
        "weeks_since_trough": 5,
        "weeks_since_crest": 9,
        "projected_trough_window": 4,
        "projected_crest_window": 9,
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          "midpoint": 4,
          "end": 7
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        "crest_window": {
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          "state": "crossed up",
          "weeks_since_cross": 0,
          "displacement": 4,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "vtl": {
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          "value": 311.768756875,
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          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
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        "period": 20,
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": -0.45825963998893027
      }
    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave2",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 58,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 421.42; Wave 2 359.81.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Retraced 29% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 9,
          "date": "2026-03-13",
          "price": 421.420013,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": null,
          "weeks": 0,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 26,
          "date": "2026-07-17",
          "price": 335.23999,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -20.449912282642355,
          "weeks": 17,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 29,
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "price": 359.809998,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 7.329080280667003,
          "weeks": 3,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "2"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 421.420013,
      "confirmation": 335.23999,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 8
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave4",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 85,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 421.42; Wave 2 394.33.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 375.90; Wave 3 335.24.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 375.90; Wave 4 359.81.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.30\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 3.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 9,
            "date": "2026-03-13",
            "price": 421.420013,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": null,
            "weeks": 0,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 11,
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "price": 375.899994,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -10.801579800625177,
            "weeks": 2,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 14,
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "price": 394.329987,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 4.902897923430141,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 26,
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "price": 335.23999,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -14.984910848284038,
            "weeks": 12,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "3"
          },
          {
            "index": 29,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 359.809998,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 7.329080280667003,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "4"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 394.329987,
        "confirmation": 335.23999,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 79
      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 394.33; Wave 2 359.81.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 14,
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "price": 394.329987,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 4.902897923430141,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 26,
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "price": 335.23999,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -14.984910848284038,
            "weeks": 12,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 29,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 359.809998,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 7.329080280667003,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 394.329987,
        "confirmation": 335.23999,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 13
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.290737327431284,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.181710829644552,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 421.42; Wave 2 359.81.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 29% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 9,
              "date": "2026-03-13",
              "price": 421.420013,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": null,
              "weeks": 0,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 26,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 335.23999,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -20.449912282642355,
              "weeks": 17,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 29,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 359.809998,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 7.329080280667003,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 421.420013,
          "confirmation": 335.23999,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 8
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.627197580751186,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 85,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 421.42; Wave 2 394.33.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 375.90; Wave 3 335.24.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 375.90; Wave 4 359.81.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.30\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 9,
              "date": "2026-03-13",
              "price": 421.420013,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": null,
              "weeks": 0,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 11,
              "date": "2026-03-27",
              "price": 375.899994,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -10.801579800625177,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 14,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 394.329987,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 4.902897923430141,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 26,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 335.23999,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -14.984910848284038,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 29,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 359.809998,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 7.329080280667003,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 394.329987,
          "confirmation": 335.23999,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 79
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 4.8% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 5 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 4.940649006046735
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -4.486207800100527
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -10.532862627925462
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 443.390015,
      "low_52": 331.640015,
      "position_52": 25.208038478747206,
      "drawdown": -18.85022534844408
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 21.592845340166594,
      "average_weekly_range": 3.6026602540234856,
      "active_drawdown": -15.053003741126547
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 26,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 335.23999,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -20.449912282642355,
        "weeks": 17,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 9,
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "price": 421.420013,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 26,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 335.23999,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -20.449912282642355,
        "weeks": 17,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": 378.056331,
      "fair_value": 378.056331,
      "trend_gap": -4.826352980714928,
      "fair_value_gap": -4.826352980714928
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 26,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 335.23999,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -20.449912282642355,
        "weeks": 17,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 29,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 359.809998,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 7.329080280667003,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 7.329080280667003,
      "weeks": 3,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "4.8% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Troughing",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-54.6",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.9",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        }
      ],
      "positive": 1,
      "negative": 3,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 5,
      "agreement": 60,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 28,
      "history_score": 12,
      "indicator_coverage": 38,
      "structure_score": 33,
      "weekly_observations": 30,
      "confirmed_pivots": 2
    },
    "volume_ratio": 57.64056082707831,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close through 335.24, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 421.42; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 17,
      "constructive_count": 7,
      "constructive_percent": 41,
      "rising_cycle_count": 9,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 53,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^AEX",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 17.122930252760785,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 14,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 4.8% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 25% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 25,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
    "dates": [
      "2026-01-09",
      "2026-01-16",
      "2026-01-23",
      "2026-01-30",
      "2026-02-06",
      "2026-02-13",
      "2026-02-20",
      "2026-02-27",
      "2026-03-06",
      "2026-03-13",
      "2026-03-20",
      "2026-03-27",
      "2026-04-03",
      "2026-04-10",
      "2026-04-17",
      "2026-04-24",
      "2026-05-01",
      "2026-05-08",
      "2026-05-15",
      "2026-05-22",
      "2026-05-29",
      "2026-06-05",
      "2026-06-12",
      "2026-06-19",
      "2026-06-26",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-17",
      "2026-07-24",
      "2026-07-31",
      "2026-08-07"
    ],
    "close": [
      370.459991,
      378.730011,
      405.359985,
      402.170013,
      400.359985,
      405.179993,
      410.359985,
      423.570007,
      418.619995,
      421.420013,
      379.350006,
      375.899994,
      386.98999,
      389.230011,
      394.329987,
      385.690002,
      376.709991,
      382.809998,
      373.929993,
      372.299988,
      375.0,
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      348.850006,
      345.970001,
      342.200012,
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      335.23999,
      342.200012,
      335.799988,
      359.809998
    ],
    "trend": [
      null,
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      378.056331
    ],
    "sma30": [
      null,
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