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"value": 1.545000623763854 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.7400553165103796 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.8330944390841861 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.7999219262752806 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.8535286310822965 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.735282235828827 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.6640278534113722 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.6542996647340473 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.5208569228967237 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.4659721008544204 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.3282879313173368 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 129.28; Wave 2 170.66.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 200.70; Wave 3 235.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 200.70; Wave 4 219.70.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.91\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 24% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 21w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 71, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 129.279999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.27737325343651, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 200.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 55.24442957336347, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 170.660004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.96761008920195, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 134, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 235.300003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.87647807625741, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 140, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 219.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.629836719551596, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 170.660004, "confirmation": 235.300003, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 75 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 170.66; Wave 2 219.70.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 24% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 122, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 170.660004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.96761008920195, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 134, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 235.300003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.87647807625741, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 140, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 219.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.629836719551596, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 170.660004, "confirmation": 235.300003, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 5 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 129.28; Wave 2 170.66.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 200.70; Wave 3 219.70.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.69\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 71, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 129.279999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.294089086932578, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 200.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 55.24442957336347, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 170.660004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.96761008920195, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 140, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 219.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.735492705133193, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 170.660004, "confirmation": 219.699997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 20 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.240686819557412, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 129.28; Wave 2 170.66.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 200.70; Wave 3 219.70.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.69\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 71, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 129.279999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.294089086932578, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 200.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 55.24442957336347, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 170.660004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.96761008920195, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 140, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 219.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.735492705133193, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 170.660004, "confirmation": 219.699997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 20 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.1504292622233825, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 129.28; Wave 2 170.66.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 200.70; Wave 3 235.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 200.70; Wave 4 219.70.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.91\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 24% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 21w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 71, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 129.279999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.27737325343651, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 200.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 55.24442957336347, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 170.660004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.96761008920195, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 134, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 235.300003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.87647807625741, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 140, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 219.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.629836719551596, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 170.660004, "confirmation": 235.300003, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 75 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.6053004835563676, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 170.66; Wave 2 219.70.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 24% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 122, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 170.660004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.919719063370728, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 134, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 235.300003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.87647807625741, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 140, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 219.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.629836719551596, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 170.660004, "confirmation": 235.300003, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave4_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave4", "labels": [ { "index": 71, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 129.279999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.27737325343651, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 200.699997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 55.24442957336347, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 170.660004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.96761008920195, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 134, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 235.300003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.87647807625741, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 140, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 219.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.629836719551596, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup.", "30-week price rate of change is positive.", "Relative Strength is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 8.465436658724203, "fair_value_gap": 31.804013009302228, "market_activity": 39.914891, "market_dynamics": 0.377496, "relative_strength": 7.015861, "roc30": 16.911451329410937, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 4 trough. Price is 8.5% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -3.682599201685252 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 10.158441033308856 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 19.298431922275594 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 28.554713114852426 } ], "range": { "high_52": 235.600006, "low_52": 168.479996, "position_52": 76.31107474507228, "drawdown": -6.748730303512815 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 23.096184831313938, "average_weekly_range": 3.753885703505885, "active_drawdown": -6.629836719551596 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 122, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 170.660004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.96761008920195, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 134, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 235.300003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.87647807625741, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 122, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 170.660004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.96761008920195, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 202.553001, "fair_value": 166.68688, "trend_gap": 8.465436658724203, "fair_value_gap": 31.804013009302228 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 134, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 235.300003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.87647807625741, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 140, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 219.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.629836719551596, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -6.629836719551596, "weeks": 6, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "8.5% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+7.0", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+39.9", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.4", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+16.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 84, "history_score": 54, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 141, "confirmed_pivots": 11 }, "volume_ratio": 174.9378631507909, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 40, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 39, "positive_rate": 48.7, "median_return": -0.01, "bar_width": 0.05, "average_return": -0.59, "best_return": 16.8, "worst_return": -14.34 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 30, "positive_rate": 33.3, "median_return": -3.65, "bar_width": 18.25, "average_return": -3.52, "best_return": 11.41, "worst_return": -25.37 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 29, "positive_rate": 69.0, "median_return": 6.13, "bar_width": 30.65, "average_return": 8.75, "best_return": 26.14, "worst_return": -6.7 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "setup", "label": "Setup in timing window", "now": "Possible Wave 4 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 235.30, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 170.66; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 12, "constructive_percent": 55, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 495, "positive_rate": 53.9, "median_return": 0.39, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.25, "excess_observations": 495, "p10": -3.77, "p90": 4.86 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 177, "positive_rate": 60.5, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 177, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 9.15 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 93, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 2.47, "average_return": 3.45, "median_excess_return": -0.78, "excess_observations": 93, "p10": -10.55, "p90": 15.89 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 22.32134441039615, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 36, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 4, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 19, "explanation": "Price is 8.5% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 1, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 5, "explanation": "Price is 76% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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