{ "ticker": { "symbol": "EQQD", "name": "Invesco NASDAQ-100 Swap Dist", "exchange": "EBS" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 89.050003, "latest_open": 86.360001, "latest_high": 89.559998, "latest_low": 86.360001, "bar_count": 111, "analysis_bar_count": 111, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 9, "date": "2024-08-30", "price": 58.27626, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 10, "date": "2024-09-06", "price": 55.349136, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.022841204977805, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { 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0.44128301360260624 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.35621397219030393 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.26038321445509427 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.1369199637082265 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.08834076652923278 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.25527410309508364 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.6270636966750619 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.8722318576758549 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.0217735078861077 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.1957577813580218 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.354071400682238 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.49118814814241 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.6224729491142353 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.6185665621239973 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.5128454062254681 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.5127818962568416 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.3787018735474952 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.3045484489536974 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.262066490425547 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.079943028653498 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.9033501501035475 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.7853679279617969 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.8757523683649808 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 91.29; Wave 2 89.05.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 56% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 103, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 91.290001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.178235133064405, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 86.220001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.553729811000887, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 89.050003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.282303371812774, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 91.290001, "confirmation": 86.220001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 71.78; Wave B 86.22.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 19.51; C length 2.83.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.15\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 91, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 71.781151, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.259762029367801, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 91.290001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.178235133064405, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 86.220001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.553729811000887, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 89.050003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.282303371812774, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 89.050003, "confirmation": 86.220001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 25 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 91.29; Wave 2 89.05.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 64% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 103, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 91.290001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.178235133064405, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 85.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.890131373752536, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 89.050003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.76470941176471, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 91.290001, "confirmation": 85.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 91.29; Wave 2 89.05.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 56% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 103, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 91.290001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.178235133064405, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 86.220001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.553729811000887, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 89.050003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.282303371812774, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 91.290001, "confirmation": 86.220001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 91.29; Wave 2 89.05.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 64% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 103, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 91.290001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.178235133064405, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 85.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.890131373752536, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 89.050003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.76470941176471, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 91.290001, "confirmation": 85.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 82, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 103, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 91.290001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.178235133064405, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 86.220001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.553729811000887, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 89.050003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.282303371812774, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 8.782466969069304, "fair_value_gap": 27.585693777238323, "market_activity": 15.410812, "market_dynamics": -0.103695, "relative_strength": 2.119182, "roc30": 15.856949133401757, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 8.8% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.7024944246208775 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 1.652059952956041 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 19.068338485027745 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 26.32573104967628 } ], "range": { "high_52": 91.290001, "low_52": 69.250793, "position_52": 89.83630446248341, "drawdown": -2.4537167000359656 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 18.686074094671323, "average_weekly_range": 1.7960407809819052, "active_drawdown": -2.4537167000359656 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 86.220001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.553729811000887, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 91.290001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.178235133064405, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 91.290001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.178235133064405, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 81.860621, "fair_value": 69.796229, "trend_gap": 8.782466969069304, "fair_value_gap": 27.585693777238323 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 86.220001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.553729811000887, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 89.050003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.282303371812774, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 3.282303371812774, "weeks": 3, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "8.8% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+2.1", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+15.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+15.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 111, "confirmed_pivots": 10 }, "volume_ratio": 62.74328367416181, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 35, "positive_rate": 62.9, "median_return": 0.64, "bar_width": 3.2, "average_return": 1.51, "best_return": 15.56, "worst_return": -4.94 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 33, "positive_rate": 69.7, "median_return": 4.21, "bar_width": 21.05, "average_return": 6.67, "best_return": 24.99, "worst_return": -6.29 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 23, "positive_rate": 87.0, "median_return": 10.26, "bar_width": 51.3, "average_return": 10.69, "best_return": 23.72, "worst_return": -3.51 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "setup", "label": "Setup in timing window", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 86.22, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 91.29; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 696, "positive_rate": 62.4, "median_return": 0.89, "average_return": 0.74, "median_excess_return": 0.03, "excess_observations": 696, "p10": -6.54, "p90": 6.54 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 244, "positive_rate": 71.3, "median_return": 3.44, "average_return": 3.37, "median_excess_return": 1.44, "excess_observations": 244, "p10": -11.5, "p90": 17.53 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 133, "positive_rate": 76.7, "median_return": 5.49, "average_return": 4.99, "median_excess_return": 3.54, "excess_observations": 133, "p10": -16.93, "p90": 26.25 } ], "benchmark": "^SSMI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 2.5154384329442414, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 42, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 4, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 22, "explanation": "Price is 8.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 9, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 59, "explanation": "Price is 90% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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