{ "ticker": { "symbol": "AYEE", "name": "iShares MSCI USA Screened UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc)", "exchange": "GER" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-24", "latest_close": 8.342, "latest_open": 8.377, "latest_high": 8.433, "latest_low": 8.275, "bar_count": 28, "analysis_bar_count": 28, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-24", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 0, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 7.893, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 27, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 8.342, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.688584821994182, "weeks": 27, "confirmed": false } ], "cycle": { "phase": "cresting", "trend_bias": "bearish", "oscillator": 4.694799492921076, "slope": -1.284982655742291, "dominant_period_weeks": 40, "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing", "weeks_since_turn": 27, "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 0, "series": [ { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 2.2717414877466924 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 4.08685482506346 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 5.57971128909235 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 7.206612759773406 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 5.979782148663367 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 5.578687813156594 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 5.562708106201187 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 4.960015201628139 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 4.694799492921076 } ] }, "hurst": { "status": "mixed", "phase": "cresting", "alignment_score": 25, "risk_score": 75, "trough_alignment": 0, "crest_alignment": 0, "nearest_trough_window": 17, "nearest_crest_window": 18, "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.", "cycles": [ { "period": 10, "label": "10w", "estimated_period": 10, "period_range": [ 8, 12 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "falling", "value": -0.07423155439060117, "slope": -0.2414792775924107, "amplitude": 3.86, "weeks_since_trough": 3, "weeks_since_crest": 2, "projected_trough_window": 7, "projected_crest_window": 8, "trough_window": { "start": 5, "midpoint": 7, "end": 9 }, "crest_window": { "start": 6, "midpoint": 8, "end": 10 }, "fld": { "value": 8.4275, "state": "crossed down", "weeks_since_cross": 0, "displacement": 5, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": true, "value": 8.521, "state": "price below", "slope": 0.08100000000000003, "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal." }, "trough_indexes": [ 10, 24 ], "series": [ { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -1.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -1.0610054011128505 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.8937018604279129 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.3700624687076294 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.5299185249135931 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.9472158436051461 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.0463783870079226 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.3142656940776627 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.4347391330224428 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.4281437968095239 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.3877046391085737 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.11633912853214 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.7515174438394201 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.5275477442562376 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.2215317514427469 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.16724772320180953 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.1829925561019006 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.06892496668259687 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.07423155439060117 } ] }, { "period": 20, "label": "20w", "estimated_period": 20, "period_range": [ 15, 25 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "cresting", "value": 0.7337523873224047, "slope": -0.07361544159354572, "amplitude": 5.739, "weeks_since_trough": 3, "weeks_since_crest": 2, "projected_trough_window": 17, "projected_crest_window": 18, "trough_window": { "start": 12, "midpoint": 17, "end": 22 }, "crest_window": { "start": 13, "midpoint": 18, "end": 23 }, "fld": { "value": 8.3445, "state": "crossed down", "weeks_since_cross": 0, "displacement": 10, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [ 24 ], "series": [ { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.0 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.9647269001528954 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.89843061974588 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.8932906188016783 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.8147719165382575 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.8073678289159504 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.8325900056045178 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.8008898711183603 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.7337523873224047 } ] }, { "period": 40, "label": "40w", "estimated_period": 40, "period_range": [ 30, 50 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "warming", "value": null, "slope": 0.0, "amplitude": null, "weeks_since_trough": null, "weeks_since_crest": null, "projected_trough_window": null, "projected_crest_window": null, "trough_window": null, "crest_window": null, "fld": { "value": 7.615, "state": "unconfirmed", "weeks_since_cross": null, "displacement": 20, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [], "series": [ { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": null } ] }, { "period": 80, "label": "80w", "estimated_period": 80, "period_range": [ 61, 99 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "warming", "value": null, "slope": 0.0, "amplitude": null, "weeks_since_trough": null, "weeks_since_crest": null, "projected_trough_window": null, "projected_crest_window": null, "trough_window": null, "crest_window": null, "fld": { "value": null, "state": "unconfirmed", "weeks_since_cross": null, "displacement": 40, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": false, "value": null, "state": "unavailable" }, "trough_indexes": [], "series": [ { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": null } ] } ], "composite": [ { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": null }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -1.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -1.0610054011128505 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.893701860427913 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.3700624687076294 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.5299185249135931 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.9472158436051462 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.0463783870079226 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.3142656940776627 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.4347391330224428 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.4281437968095239 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.1550818556434295 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.025371791504593 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.839665349383296 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.7469934689835019 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.5774758505000532 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.551319786630294 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.5727510258034708 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.5081039093440549 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.41055881063720223 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": null, "alternates": [], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 0, "changes": null, "observations": 0, "label": "Unavailable" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "warming", "title": "Needs more weekly history", "direction": "neutral", "confidence": 20, "labels": [], "notes": [ "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context." ], "metrics": {} }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. 0 of 3 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.7609614687764297 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 3.9113104135525667 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 6.3216925822075 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": null } ], "range": { "high_52": 8.555, "low_52": 7.108, "position_52": 85.2798894263995, "drawdown": -2.4897720631209723 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 13.602246991792022, "average_weekly_range": 1.8149852343108308, "active_drawdown": -2.4441585779440955 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 0, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 7.893, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 0, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 7.893, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level", "trend": null, "fair_value": 7.998107, "trend_gap": null, "fair_value_gap": 4.299679911759126 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 0, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 7.893, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 27, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 8.342, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.688584821994182, "weeks": 27, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 5.688584821994182, "weeks": 27, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The 30-week trend line is not available." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "neutral", "value": "+0.0", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." } ], "positive": 0, "negative": 1, "neutral": 2, "observed": 3, "agreement": 33, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "neutral" }, "evidence": { "score": 24, "history_score": 11, "indicator_coverage": 38, "structure_score": 17, "weekly_observations": 28, "confirmed_pivots": 1 }, "volume_ratio": 40.51608269425901, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 0, "horizons": [], "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "observing", "label": "Observing", "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.", "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.", "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.", "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "average_return": null, "median_excess_return": null, "excess_observations": 0, "p10": null, "p90": null }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "average_return": null, "median_excess_return": null, "excess_observations": 0, "p10": null, "p90": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "average_return": null, "median_excess_return": null, "excess_observations": 0, "p10": null, "p90": null } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": null, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 42, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 6, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 41, "explanation": "Price is 85% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.", "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2026-01-16", "2026-01-23", "2026-01-30", "2026-02-06", "2026-02-13", "2026-02-20", "2026-02-27", "2026-03-06", "2026-03-13", "2026-03-20", "2026-03-27", "2026-04-03", "2026-04-10", "2026-04-17", "2026-04-24", "2026-05-01", "2026-05-08", "2026-05-15", "2026-05-22", "2026-05-29", "2026-06-05", "2026-06-12", "2026-06-19", "2026-06-26", "2026-07-03", "2026-07-10", "2026-07-17", "2026-07-24" ], "close": [ 7.893, 7.846, 7.842, 7.772, 7.703, 7.741, 7.708, 7.648, 7.437, 7.325, 7.144, 7.345, 7.639, 8.018, 8.028, 8.041, 8.307, 8.358, 8.428, 8.551, 8.437, 8.363, 8.437, 8.279, 8.435, 8.495, 8.385, 8.342 ], "trend": [ null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null ], "sma30": [ null, null, null, null, null, null, null, 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