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"value": 1.3068504833911385 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 1.3091441158623565 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 1.526109811905186 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 1.699619562963291 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 1.7923150264293104 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 1.7738643986197467 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 1.63834244869423 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 1.3830682228036317 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 1.0981738746515488 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.9704677802683155 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.9494029241347173 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.9412211380483587 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 1.0187316547778835 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 1.0578051095405634 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.1080639136744446 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.078458259202537 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.0521913164052143 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.0724698457117776 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.035029482383571 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.9971273283038408 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.0502976735781455 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.9276542002893869 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.9036691417771543 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.9207831842432717 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.9596175030039102 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.1076557621467402 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.2375510753044556 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.378107048340377 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 1.4961524909526727 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.48; Wave B 28.07.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 7.66; C length 4.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.59\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 38, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 22.481533, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.859083535170216, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 30.139711, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.06430513435183, "weeks": 45, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 28.066626, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.878251088738041, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 32.57, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.045298782974488, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 32.57, "confirmation": 28.066626, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 15 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.48; Wave 2 28.07.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 30.14; Wave 3 32.57.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.59\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 38, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 22.481533, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.859083535170216, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 30.139711, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.06430513435183, "weeks": 45, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 28.066626, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.878251088738041, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 32.57, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.045298782974488, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 28.066626, "confirmation": 32.57, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 6 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.48; Wave 2 26.08.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 27.24; Wave 3 30.14.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 27.24; Wave 4 28.07.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 4.76, 4.06, 4.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 30.14; Wave 5 32.57.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 24% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.85\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 5w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 38, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 22.481533, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.87233508432004, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 64, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 27.242535, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.177390349670556, "weeks": 26, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 65, "date": "2025-10-10", "price": 26.077691, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.275828222300159, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 30.139711, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.576609140740246, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 28.066626, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.878251088738041, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 32.57, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.045298782974488, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 28.066626, "confirmation": 32.57, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 79 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.48; Wave B 28.07.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 7.66; C length 4.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.59\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 38, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 22.481533, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.859083535170216, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 30.139711, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.06430513435183, "weeks": 45, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 28.066626, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.878251088738041, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 32.57, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.045298782974488, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 32.57, "confirmation": 28.066626, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 15 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.48; Wave 2 26.08.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 27.24; Wave 3 30.14.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 27.24; Wave 4 28.07.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 4.76, 4.06, 4.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 30.14; Wave 5 32.57.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 24% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.85\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 5w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 38, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 22.481533, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.87233508432004, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 64, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 27.242535, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.177390349670556, "weeks": 26, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 65, "date": "2025-10-10", "price": 26.077691, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.275828222300159, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 30.139711, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.576609140740246, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 28.066626, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.878251088738041, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 32.57, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.045298782974488, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 28.066626, "confirmation": 32.57, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 79 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 44, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 38, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 22.481533, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.859083535170216, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 30.139711, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.06430513435183, "weeks": 45, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 28.066626, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.878251088738041, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 32.57, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.045298782974488, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 9.01036428505852, "fair_value_gap": 21.60849695780868, "market_activity": 91.397023, "market_dynamics": 1.32236, "relative_strength": 1.289519, "roc30": 14.66728742614223, "hurst_alignment": 100, "hurst_risk": 0 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as bearish a/b/c rebound may be completing. Price is 9.0% above its 30-week trend. 7 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 6.2323870159691115 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 10.431606183464703 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 8.454903888209866 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 26.929349495072948 } ], "range": { "high_52": 32.58, "low_52": 25.581158, "position_52": 99.85711922057966, "drawdown": -0.030693677102510777 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 10.726172894018074, "average_weekly_range": 1.552518306352293, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 88, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 28.066626, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.878251088738041, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 29.877893, "fair_value": 26.782668, "trend_gap": 9.01036428505852, "fair_value_gap": 21.60849695780868 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 88, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 28.066626, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.878251088738041, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 32.57, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.045298782974488, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 16.045298782974488, "weeks": 20, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "9.0% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.3", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+91.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+14.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 7, "negative": 0, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 100, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 73, "history_score": 42, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 109, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 386.65397708554485, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 26, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 26, "positive_rate": 69.2, "median_return": 1.66, "bar_width": 8.299999999999999, "average_return": 1.17, "best_return": 5.96, "worst_return": -6.8 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 22, "positive_rate": 86.4, "median_return": 3.03, "bar_width": 15.149999999999999, "average_return": 3.23, "best_return": 8.08, "worst_return": -1.79 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 13, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 8.44, "bar_width": 42.199999999999996, "average_return": 8.58, "best_return": 12.7, "worst_return": 4.48 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 28.07, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 32.57; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 3, "constructive_percent": 19, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 19, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 436, "positive_rate": 64.7, "median_return": 0.69, "average_return": 0.61, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 436, "p10": -5.52, "p90": 6.17 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 151, "positive_rate": 70.2, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.35, "median_excess_return": -1.04, "excess_observations": 151, "p10": -7.8, "p90": 13.36 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 81, "positive_rate": 67.9, "median_return": 3.1, "average_return": 2.83, "median_excess_return": -4.37, "excess_observations": 81, "p10": -11.14, "p90": 16.41 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 25, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 5, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 23, "explanation": "Price is 9.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 99, "explanation": "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-28", "2025-04-04", "2025-04-11", "2025-04-18", "2025-04-25", "2025-05-02", "2025-05-09", "2025-05-16", "2025-05-23", "2025-05-30", "2025-06-06", "2025-06-13", "2025-06-20", "2025-06-27", "2025-07-04", "2025-07-11", "2025-07-18", "2025-07-25", "2025-08-01", "2025-08-08", "2025-08-15", "2025-08-22", 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