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1.2970282520461507 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": 1.1391377740028485 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": 1.09323340336543 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 1.0562637959497072 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 1.010025480927863 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 0.9413289767638477 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 0.8717867787774882 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 0.8781021583235735 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 0.9039678093945425 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 0.922306371550442 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.8715219386811618 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.8213232297453554 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.776946446938273 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.7695036756016791 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.7095197776178693 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.6359182333199038 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.5757470356024098 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.4300234507372551 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.26193749256977766 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.16673230026732364 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.09808834856815013 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.1781416447261213 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.34520865562669545 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.4667531548483629 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.5944426626666603 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.8122319263886538 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.9390787598913856 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.1011773361941655 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.1969683323068787 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.2477012246400683 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.185201125604857 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.118090207787087 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.0537495984592973 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.0170107001664856 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.983341806116375 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.9705981009383564 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.9015694731223884 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.8404754347951111 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.9427587589898987 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 77, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.58; Wave B 5.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.80; C length 1.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.61\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 41, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.584873, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.510037850780908, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 81, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 6.385, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 39.26230890146793, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 5.937, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.016444792482374, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.037, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.52787603166582, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 7.037, "confirmation": 5.937, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 43 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.58; Wave 2 5.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 6.38; Wave 3 7.04.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 25% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.61\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 41, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.584873, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.510037850780908, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 81, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 6.385, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 39.26230890146793, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 5.937, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.016444792482374, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.037, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.52787603166582, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 5.937, "confirmation": 7.037, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 14 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 77, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.58; Wave B 5.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.80; C length 1.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.61\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 41, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.584873, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.510037850780908, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 81, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 6.385, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 39.26230890146793, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 5.937, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.016444792482374, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.037, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.52787603166582, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 7.037, "confirmation": 5.937, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 43 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 77, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.58; Wave B 5.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.80; C length 1.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.61\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 41, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.584873, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.510037850780908, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 81, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 6.385, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 39.26230890146793, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 5.937, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.016444792482374, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.037, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.52787603166582, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 7.037, "confirmation": 5.937, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 43 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 77, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.58; Wave B 5.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.80; C length 1.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.61\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 41, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.584873, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.510037850780908, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 81, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 6.385, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 39.26230890146793, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 5.937, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.016444792482374, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.037, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.52787603166582, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 7.037, "confirmation": 5.937, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 43 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 82, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 41, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.584873, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.510037850780908, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 81, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 6.385, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 39.26230890146793, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 5.937, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.016444792482374, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.037, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.52787603166582, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 8.541944049920959, "fair_value_gap": 21.223605614149935, "market_activity": 39.640624, "market_dynamics": 0.279184, "relative_strength": -0.974802, "roc30": 10.211433046202039, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 8.5% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 3.5919328720741905 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 5.2771262890164605 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 12.322426177174783 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 21.09277062220897 } ], "range": { "high_52": 7.052, "low_52": 5.811247, "position_52": 98.79105672120079, "drawdown": -0.2127056154282428 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 12.613025940829626, "average_weekly_range": 0.931560481685664, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 5.937, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.016444792482374, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 6.483208, "fair_value": 5.804975, "trend_gap": 8.541944049920959, "fair_value_gap": 21.223605614149935 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 5.937, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.016444792482374, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.037, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.52787603166582, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 18.52787603166582, "weeks": 20, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "8.5% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.0", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+39.6", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+10.2", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 73, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 111, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 13.518617402289571, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 26, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 48.0, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": 0.56, "best_return": 7.92, "worst_return": -4.82 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 21, "positive_rate": 61.9, "median_return": 4.22, "bar_width": 21.099999999999998, "average_return": 2.4, "best_return": 10.1, "worst_return": -5.03 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 16, "positive_rate": 87.5, "median_return": 6.8, "bar_width": 34.0, "average_return": 5.03, "best_return": 9.45, "worst_return": -0.81 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 5.94, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 7.04; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 7, "constructive_percent": 41, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 53, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 260, "positive_rate": 50.4, "median_return": 0.11, "average_return": -0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 260, "p10": -14.22, "p90": 9.57 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 96, "positive_rate": 55.2, "median_return": 1.53, "average_return": -1.35, "median_excess_return": -0.84, "excess_observations": 96, "p10": -31.75, "p90": 15.6 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 57, "positive_rate": 43.9, "median_return": 0.0, "average_return": -5.25, "median_excess_return": -4.94, "excess_observations": 57, "p10": -61.94, "p90": 24.04 } ], "benchmark": "^AEX", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 49, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 4, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 20, "explanation": "Price is 8.5% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 14, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 95, "explanation": "Price is 99% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 99% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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