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"2026-06-05", "value": 1.3344639403737335 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.2091686871365555 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.1884433033578752 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.0655354424977435 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.0496902389132372 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.094319134829776 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.0694233251008058 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.0304295112226702 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.9648047258450126 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.92; Wave B 28.98.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 10.81; C length 6.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.60\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 51, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 22.924999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.20391843393148, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 79, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 33.735001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.153773049237635, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.095155947972247, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.445, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.308488612836438, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 35.445, "confirmation": 28.98, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 39 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.92; Wave 2 28.98.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 33.74; Wave 3 35.45.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 44% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.60\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 51, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 22.924999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.20391843393148, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 79, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 33.735001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.153773049237635, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.095155947972247, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.445, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.308488612836438, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 28.98, "confirmation": 35.445, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 22 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.92; Wave B 28.98.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 10.81; C length 6.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.60\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 51, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 22.924999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.588923969926832, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 79, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 33.735001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.153773049237635, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.095155947972247, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.445, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.308488612836438, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 35.445, "confirmation": 28.98, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 39 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.810620974446127, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.92; Wave B 28.98.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 10.81; C length 6.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.60\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 51, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 22.924999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.588923969926832, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 79, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 33.735001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.153773049237635, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.095155947972247, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.445, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.308488612836438, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 35.445, "confirmation": 28.98, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 39 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.506638109028829, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 22.92; Wave B 28.98.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 10.81; C length 6.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.60\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 51, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 22.924999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.20391843393148, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 79, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 33.735001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.153773049237635, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.095155947972247, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.445, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.308488612836438, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 35.445, "confirmation": 28.98, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 39 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.85464667632018, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 73, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 37.01; Wave B 36.56.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.98; C length 1.12.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.57\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 109, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 37.005001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.691514837819184, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 35.029999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.337121866312079, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 36.564999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.381958446530369, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.445, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.063035773636969, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 35.445, "confirmation": 36.564999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 81, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 51, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 22.924999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.20391843393148, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 79, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 33.735001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.153773049237635, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.095155947972247, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.445, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.308488612836438, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 6.085170484361031, "fair_value_gap": 20.06293472427713, "market_activity": 32.925945, "market_dynamics": 0.379605, "relative_strength": 3.049253, "roc30": 9.719857607181552, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 6.1% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -1.6099985226926576 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 6.681721997394856 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 11.796246648793574 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 21.386982144281433 } ], "range": { "high_52": 37.325001, "low_52": 28.924999, "position_52": 77.61904104308547, "drawdown": -5.036841124264136 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 20.447669568469085, "average_weekly_range": 2.807412772926287, "active_drawdown": -4.215649122668581 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.095155947972247, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 33.411833, "fair_value": 29.522017, "trend_gap": 6.085170484361031, "fair_value_gap": 20.06293472427713 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 100, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.095155947972247, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.445, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.308488612836438, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 22.308488612836438, "weeks": 18, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "6.1% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+3.0", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+32.9", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.4", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+9.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 74, "history_score": 46, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 119, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 167.21670037841028, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 31, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 30, "positive_rate": 46.7, "median_return": -0.39, "bar_width": 1.9500000000000002, "average_return": 0.14, "best_return": 11.38, "worst_return": -8.27 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 21, "positive_rate": 47.6, "median_return": -2.33, "bar_width": 11.65, "average_return": -1.45, "best_return": 5.02, "worst_return": -11.1 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 20, "positive_rate": 75.0, "median_return": 9.57, "bar_width": 47.85, "average_return": 6.26, "best_return": 14.22, "worst_return": -7.01 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 28.98, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 35.45; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 12, "constructive_percent": 55, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 495, "positive_rate": 53.9, "median_return": 0.39, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.25, "excess_observations": 495, "p10": -3.77, "p90": 4.86 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 177, "positive_rate": 60.5, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 177, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 9.15 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 93, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 2.47, "average_return": 3.45, "median_excess_return": -0.78, "excess_observations": 93, "p10": -10.55, "p90": 15.89 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": true, "options_direction": "mixed", "options_conviction": 31.68, "expected_move": 4.67652048, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": true, "flags": [ "The options-implied move is large enough to cross the Elliott invalidation level in one event-sized move." ], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 36, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 1, "explanation": "Price is 6.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 2, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 10, "explanation": "Price is 78% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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