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"value": -0.8981144468831368 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.5953356761552752 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.23916071448595472 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.05781585961246828 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 10.35; Wave 2 9.71.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 55% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 10.350045, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.711298153594488, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 8.917639, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.83961132536139, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.71, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.885322673411666, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 10.350045, "confirmation": 8.917639, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 13 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 8.23; Wave B 8.92.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 2.12; C length 0.79.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.37\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 55, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 8.233186, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.14285714285714, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 10.350045, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.711298153594488, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 8.917639, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.83961132536139, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.71, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.885322673411666, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 9.71, "confirmation": 8.917639, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 8 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 85, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 10.35; Wave 2 10.16.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 9.78; Wave 3 8.92.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 9.78; Wave 4 9.71.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 66% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.17\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 64% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 10.350045, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.18559085604717, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 9.779377, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.513676510585215, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 10.15844, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.876146711595231, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 8.917639, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.214483719941262, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.71, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.885322673411666, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 10.15844, "confirmation": 8.917639, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 79 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 10.35; Wave 2 9.71.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 55% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 10.350045, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.711298153594488, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 8.917639, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.83961132536139, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.71, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.885322673411666, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 10.350045, "confirmation": 8.917639, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 13 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 85, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 10.35; Wave 2 10.16.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 9.78; Wave 3 8.92.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 9.78; Wave 4 9.71.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 66% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.17\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 64% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 10.350045, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.18559085604717, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 9.779377, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.513676510585215, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 10.15844, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.876146711595231, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 8.917639, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.214483719941262, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.71, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.885322673411666, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 10.15844, "confirmation": 8.917639, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 79 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 63, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 10.350045, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.711298153594488, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 8.917639, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.83961132536139, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.71, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.885322673411666, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -1.3969643466248962, "fair_value_gap": 8.350824570976501, "market_activity": -17.620659, "market_dynamics": -0.322525, "relative_strength": -1.31911, "roc30": -4.896488986014385, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 1.4% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 5.374043670867057 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -3.9424929129147084 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -2.6274737735975306 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 3.2525839995925256 } ], "range": { "high_52": 10.500829, "low_52": 8.854975, "position_52": 51.950233738837184, "drawdown": -7.53111016282618 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 13.248060163924732, "average_weekly_range": 2.2808504452221308, "active_drawdown": -6.183982774954108 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 8.917639, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.83961132536139, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 10.350045, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.711298153594488, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 10.350045, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.711298153594488, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 9.847567, "fair_value": 8.96163, "trend_gap": -1.3969643466248962, "fair_value_gap": 8.350824570976501 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 8.917639, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.83961132536139, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.71, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.885322673411666, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 8.885322673411666, "weeks": 6, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "1.4% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.3", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-17.6", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-4.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 5, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 75, "history_score": 48, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 125, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 128.96181108028026, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 1, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 8.92, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 10.35; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 427, "positive_rate": 42.9, "median_return": -1.12, "average_return": 0.54, "median_excess_return": -0.2, "excess_observations": 427, "p10": -8.23, "p90": 11.24 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 159, "positive_rate": 46.5, "median_return": -1.58, "average_return": 0.27, "median_excess_return": -0.04, "excess_observations": 159, "p10": -14.52, "p90": 16.37 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 88, "positive_rate": 44.3, "median_return": -1.05, "average_return": 0.47, "median_excess_return": -1.19, "excess_observations": 88, "p10": -20.39, "p90": 23.91 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 6.59160659114314, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 10, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 1.4% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 52% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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