{ "ticker": { "symbol": "SP5C", "name": "Amundi Core S&P 500 Swap UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "EBS" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 562.200012, "latest_open": 547.299988, "latest_high": 565.0, "latest_low": 546.799988, "bar_count": 119, "analysis_bar_count": 119, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 47, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 401.700012, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 48, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 369.399994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.040830728180318, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": 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"value": 0.7256192379914961 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.6741764566241356 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.5308869454912788 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.36066258005833174 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.18395289254739514 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.0893742829281948 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.2236285721909563 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.49259975393350797 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.6828406660955433 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.8136123584221311 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.9945399071236959 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.1329759163185327 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.2294816629296874 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.3158293978995654 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.3142069339061255 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.2425604549857898 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.1981609210800839 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.0839253392148331 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.045268176603328 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.0400355414388718 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.9990143723886868 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.9270839544946983 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.8639924975710711 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.951934191357289 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 70, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 369.40; Wave B 467.05.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 134.10; C length 95.15.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.71\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 48, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 369.399994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.040830728180318, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 503.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.30211374610905, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 467.049988, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2393271102284045, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 562.200012, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.372556780795815, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 562.200012, "confirmation": 467.049988, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 52 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 369.40; Wave 2 467.05.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 503.50; Wave 3 562.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.71\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 48, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 369.399994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.040830728180318, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 503.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.30211374610905, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 467.049988, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2393271102284045, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 562.200012, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.372556780795815, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 467.049988, "confirmation": 562.200012, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 48 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 70, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 369.40; Wave B 467.05.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 134.10; C length 95.15.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.71\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 48, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 369.399994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.040830728180318, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 503.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.30211374610905, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 467.049988, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2393271102284045, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 562.200012, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.372556780795815, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 562.200012, "confirmation": 467.049988, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 52 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 78, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 48, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 369.399994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.040830728180318, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 503.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 36.30211374610905, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 467.049988, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2393271102284045, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 562.200012, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.372556780795815, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 8.562861324885835, "fair_value_gap": 24.58621637565847, "market_activity": 40.519774, "market_dynamics": 0.352622, "relative_strength": 0.858658, "roc30": 11.96972819793195, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 8.6% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 2.460360799117314 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 5.221790122892541 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 13.118714688128776 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 22.777903334062945 } ], "range": { "high_52": 565.0, "low_52": 458.649994, "position_52": 97.36719525902049, "drawdown": -0.49557309734513005 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 13.622301873702403, "average_weekly_range": 1.0967906021577953, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 467.049988, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2393271102284045, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 517.856664, "fair_value": 451.253781, "trend_gap": 8.562861324885835, "fair_value_gap": 24.58621637565847 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 467.049988, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2393271102284045, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 118, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 562.200012, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.372556780795815, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 20.372556780795815, "weeks": 19, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "8.6% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.9", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+40.5", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.4", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+12.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 74, "history_score": 46, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 119, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 173.15695536242907, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 49, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 48, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 1.04, "bar_width": 5.2, "average_return": 0.79, "best_return": 7.77, "worst_return": -5.79 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 39, "positive_rate": 84.6, "median_return": 4.39, "bar_width": 21.95, "average_return": 4.02, "best_return": 10.86, "worst_return": -6.24 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 32, "positive_rate": 90.6, "median_return": 8.49, "bar_width": 42.45, "average_return": 7.71, "best_return": 15.2, "worst_return": -3.04 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 467.05, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 562.20; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 696, "positive_rate": 62.4, "median_return": 0.89, "average_return": 0.74, "median_excess_return": 0.03, "excess_observations": 696, "p10": -6.54, "p90": 6.54 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 244, "positive_rate": 71.3, "median_return": 3.44, "average_return": 3.37, "median_excess_return": 1.44, "excess_observations": 244, "p10": -11.5, "p90": 17.53 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 133, "positive_rate": 76.7, "median_return": 5.49, "average_return": 4.99, "median_excess_return": 3.54, "excess_observations": 133, "p10": -16.93, "p90": 26.25 } ], "benchmark": "^SSMI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 43, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 4, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 20, "explanation": "Price is 8.6% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 13, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 89, "explanation": "Price is 97% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 97% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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