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        "label": "10w",
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      "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
      "direction": "bullish",
      "score": 95,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 20.30; Wave 2 23.40.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 24.82; Wave 3 30.56.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 24.82; Wave 4 26.81.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Motive lengths: 4.52, 7.16, 9.16.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 30.56; Wave 5 35.97.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.58\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 52% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 13w; Wave 4 lasted 7w.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
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          "index": 65,
          "date": "2022-09-30",
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          "weeks": 7,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
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        {
          "index": 108,
          "date": "2023-07-28",
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          "weeks": 43,
          "confirmed": true,
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        {
          "index": 121,
          "date": "2023-10-27",
          "price": 23.4029,
          "kind": "low",
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          "weeks": 13,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 189,
          "date": "2025-02-14",
          "price": 30.56,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 30.58210734567084,
          "weeks": 68,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "3"
        },
        {
          "index": 196,
          "date": "2025-04-04",
          "price": 26.81,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -12.270942408376964,
          "weeks": 7,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "4"
        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-10-09",
          "price": 35.97,
          "kind": "high",
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          "weeks": 79,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "5"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 26.81,
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      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 79
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave3",
        "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 74,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 23.40; Wave 2 26.81.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 30.56; Wave 3 35.97.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 52% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.28\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 121,
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            "price": 23.4029,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -5.709888356614201,
            "weeks": 13,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 189,
            "date": "2025-02-14",
            "price": 30.56,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 30.58210734567084,
            "weeks": 68,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 196,
            "date": "2025-04-04",
            "price": 26.81,
            "kind": "low",
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            "weeks": 7,
            "confirmed": true,
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          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 35.97,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 34.16635583737411,
            "weeks": 79,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "3"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 26.81,
        "confirmation": 35.97,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 14
      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-abc",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 66,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 23.40; Wave B 26.81.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 7.16; C length 9.16.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave C is 1.28\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 121,
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            "weeks": 13,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 189,
            "date": "2025-02-14",
            "price": 30.56,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 30.58210734567084,
            "weeks": 68,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 196,
            "date": "2025-04-04",
            "price": 26.81,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -12.270942408376964,
            "weeks": 7,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 35.97,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 34.16635583737411,
            "weeks": 79,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 35.97,
        "confirmation": 26.81,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 7
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
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        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.5,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 20.30; Wave 2 23.40.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 24.82; Wave 3 30.56.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 24.82; Wave 4 26.81.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 4.52, 7.16, 9.16.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 30.56; Wave 5 35.97.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.58\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 52% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 13w; Wave 4 lasted 7w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 65,
              "date": "2022-09-30",
              "price": 20.3033,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -10.02743052632045,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 108,
              "date": "2023-07-28",
              "price": 24.8201,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 22.246629858200393,
              "weeks": 43,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 121,
              "date": "2023-10-27",
              "price": 23.4029,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -5.709888356614201,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 189,
              "date": "2025-02-14",
              "price": 30.56,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 30.58210734567084,
              "weeks": 68,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 196,
              "date": "2025-04-04",
              "price": 26.81,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -12.270942408376964,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 35.97,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 34.16635583737411,
              "weeks": 79,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 26.81,
          "confirmation": 35.97,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 79
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 100,
      "changes": 0,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave5_risk",
    "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 70,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "tactical-bullish-wave5",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 65,
        "date": "2022-09-30",
        "price": 20.3033,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -10.02743052632045,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 108,
        "date": "2023-07-28",
        "price": 24.8201,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 22.246629858200393,
        "weeks": 43,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 121,
        "date": "2023-10-27",
        "price": 23.4029,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -5.709888356614201,
        "weeks": 13,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 189,
        "date": "2025-02-14",
        "price": 30.56,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 30.58210734567084,
        "weeks": 68,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "3"
      },
      {
        "index": 196,
        "date": "2025-04-04",
        "price": 26.81,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -12.270942408376964,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "4"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 35.97,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 34.16635583737411,
        "weeks": 79,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "5"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 3.775120784633382,
      "fair_value_gap": 19.736723013274997,
      "market_activity": 47.506203,
      "market_dynamics": 0.553916,
      "relative_strength": -1.800184,
      "roc30": 12.073531702757439,
      "hurst_alignment": 50,
      "hurst_risk": 50
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 3.8% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 1.1103302881236712
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 2.6834142163859482
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 7.994667819570536
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 15.92792293387564
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 35.97,
      "low_52": 31.0369,
      "position_52": 100.0,
      "drawdown": 0.0
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 3.9573158096864964,
      "average_weekly_range": 0.46204373534811854,
      "active_drawdown": 0.0
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 196,
        "date": "2025-04-04",
        "price": 26.81,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -5.835990952387642,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": null,
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 34.661487,
      "fair_value": 30.040909,
      "trend_gap": 3.775120784633382,
      "fair_value_gap": 19.736723013274997
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 196,
        "date": "2025-04-04",
        "price": 26.81,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -5.835990952387642,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 35.97,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 34.16635583737411,
        "weeks": 79,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 34.16635583737411,
      "weeks": 79,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "3.8% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-1.8",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+47.5",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.6",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+12.1",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 4,
      "negative": 2,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 87,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 33,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 2
    },
    "volume_ratio": 5.291005291005291,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 167,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 166,
          "positive_rate": 81.3,
          "median_return": 0.97,
          "bar_width": 4.85,
          "average_return": 0.83,
          "best_return": 6.24,
          "worst_return": -9.04
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 157,
          "positive_rate": 86.6,
          "median_return": 3.06,
          "bar_width": 15.3,
          "average_return": 2.86,
          "best_return": 8.64,
          "worst_return": -10.29
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 145,
          "positive_rate": 91.0,
          "median_return": 6.94,
          "bar_width": 34.7,
          "average_return": 6.12,
          "best_return": 12.63,
          "worst_return": -7.59
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "mature",
      "label": "Mature / manage risk",
      "now": "Five-wave advance mature is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 26.81; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 17,
      "constructive_count": 6,
      "constructive_percent": 35,
      "rising_cycle_count": 4,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 24,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 416,
          "positive_rate": 64.4,
          "median_return": 0.64,
          "average_return": 0.53,
          "median_excess_return": -0.53,
          "excess_observations": 416,
          "p10": -5.79,
          "p90": 6.5
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 142,
          "positive_rate": 69.0,
          "median_return": 1.94,
          "average_return": 3.05,
          "median_excess_return": -1.1,
          "excess_observations": 142,
          "p10": -11.56,
          "p90": 15.97
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 76,
          "positive_rate": 67.1,
          "median_return": 3.24,
          "average_return": 3.11,
          "median_excess_return": -2.83,
          "excess_observations": 76,
          "p10": -11.05,
          "p90": 20.13
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "SPY",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 25.46566583263831,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 59,
      "label": "Elevated vulnerability",
      "tone": "elevated",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 25,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 3.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 8,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.",
        "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.",
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
    "dates": [
      "2023-10-20",
      "2023-10-27",
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      "2025-01-03",
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      "2025-02-07",
      "2025-02-14",
      "2025-02-21",
      "2025-02-28",
      "2025-03-07",
      "2025-03-14",
      "2025-03-21",
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      "2025-05-16",
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      "2025-07-25",
      "2025-08-01",
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      "2025-09-19",
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      "2025-10-03",
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      "2025-10-24",
      "2025-10-31",
      "2025-11-07",
      "2025-11-14",
      "2025-11-21",
      "2025-11-28",
      "2025-12-05",
      "2025-12-12",
      "2025-12-19",
      "2025-12-26",
      "2026-01-02",
      "2026-01-09",
      "2026-01-16",
      "2026-01-23",
      "2026-01-30",
      "2026-02-06",
      "2026-02-13",
      "2026-02-20",
      "2026-02-27",
      "2026-03-06",
      "2026-03-13",
      "2026-03-20",
      "2026-03-27",
      "2026-04-03",
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      "2026-04-17",
      "2026-04-24",
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      "2026-05-08",
      "2026-05-15",
      "2026-05-22",
      "2026-05-29",
      "2026-06-05",
      "2026-06-12",
      "2026-06-19",
      "2026-06-26",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-17",
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      "2026-08-07",
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    "close": [
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