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"date": "2026-01-16", "value": -0.2994787728694771 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": -0.45862764266429523 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": -0.5227553469615578 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": -0.6515856781604799 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -0.7191007160908465 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -0.7350311504494774 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -0.7439581788592219 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.5098261697276609 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -0.15440256743652123 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.10443060097858814 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.1035487308306755 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.027829881174843314 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.09960692109518966 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.08227955886842515 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.1546290141013728 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.306671216322367 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.6086842033384737 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.821452431440877 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.7805229693433064 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.9204771844529879 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.9907798514696122 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.9841694698378427 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.1125880923145477 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.1238303062696506 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -1.1472267567431158 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -1.1499043483289142 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -1.157232210966583 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -1.1803084638652388 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -1.1643154295376668 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": -1.1362048902986916 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 212.00; Wave B 196.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 46.50; C length 30.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.65\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 74, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 212.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.439897698209718, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 165.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.933962264150942, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 196.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.731117824773413, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 166.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.267175572519085, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 166.5, "confirmation": 196.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 67 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 165.50; Wave 2 166.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 97% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 85, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 165.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.933962264150942, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 196.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.731117824773413, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 166.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.267175572519085, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 165.5, "confirmation": 196.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 16 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 196.50; Wave B 178.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 30.00; C length 11.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.38\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 196.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.731117824773413, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 166.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.267175572519085, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 178.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.906906906906907, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 166.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.46067415730337, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 166.5, "confirmation": 178.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 16 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 11.670835989872387, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 11.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 7.294272493670242, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 212.00; Wave B 196.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 46.50; C length 30.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.65\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 74, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 212.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.439897698209718, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 165.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.933962264150942, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 196.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.731117824773413, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 166.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.267175572519085, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 166.5, "confirmation": 196.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 67 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 7.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 5.105990745569169, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 196.50; Wave B 178.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 30.00; C length 11.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.38\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 196.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.731117824773413, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 166.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.267175572519085, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 178.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.906906906906907, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 166.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.46067415730337, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 166.5, "confirmation": 178.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 16 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave_hurst_confluence", "title": "Wave + Hurst trough confluence", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 74, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 74, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 212.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.439897698209718, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 165.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.933962264150942, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 196.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.731117824773413, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 166.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.267175572519085, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -4.071442473456033, "fair_value_gap": -6.41074271119276, "market_activity": -11.746703, "market_dynamics": -0.626899, "relative_strength": -39.230109, "roc30": -9.51086956521739, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as wave + hurst trough confluence. Price is 4.1% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.8928571428571429 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 0.6042296072507553 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -24.489795918367346 } ], "range": { "high_52": 261.0, "low_52": 160.0, "position_52": 6.435643564356436, "drawdown": -36.206896551724135 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 26.221273947396735, "average_weekly_range": 5.7076694011089915, "active_drawdown": -34.1897233201581 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 85, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 165.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.933962264150942, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 196.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.731117824773413, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 85, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 165.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.933962264150942, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 173.566667, "fair_value": 177.905034, "trend_gap": -4.071442473456033, "fair_value_gap": -6.41074271119276 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 196.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.731117824773413, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 166.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.267175572519085, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -15.267175572519085, "weeks": 21, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "4.1% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-39.2", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-11.7", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.6", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-9.5", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 2, "negative": 5, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 112, "confirmed_pivots": 13 }, "volume_ratio": 51.69649064136246, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 20, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 19, "positive_rate": 36.8, "median_return": -1.47, "bar_width": 7.35, "average_return": -0.02, "best_return": 17.66, "worst_return": -9.21 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 14, "positive_rate": 42.9, "median_return": -3.63, "bar_width": 18.15, "average_return": -3.26, "best_return": 5.9, "worst_return": -11.7 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 3, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -3.2, "bar_width": 16.0, "average_return": -3.74, "best_return": -2.36, "worst_return": -5.65 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "A/B/C reset may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 196.50, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 166.50; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 16, "constructive_percent": 67, "rising_cycle_count": 12, "rising_cycle_percent": 50, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 118, "positive_rate": 61.0, "median_return": 1.14, "average_return": 1.76, "median_excess_return": -0.66, "excess_observations": 118, "p10": -6.0, "p90": 9.07 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 82, "positive_rate": 62.2, "median_return": 2.38, "average_return": 3.46, "median_excess_return": -4.54, "excess_observations": 82, "p10": -9.6, "p90": 13.79 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 63, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 5.88, "average_return": 6.5, "median_excess_return": -9.33, "excess_observations": 63, "p10": -12.33, "p90": 23.28 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 4, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 4.1% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 6% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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