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        "label": "10w",
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      "pattern": "impulse",
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      "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
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      "score": 58,
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        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 989.12; Wave 2 1,056.37.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
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        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
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        {
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        {
          "index": 274,
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        {
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          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "2"
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      ],
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      "evidence_weight": 33
    },
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      {
        "id": "primary-bullish-abc",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
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            "detail": "Origin 1,160.82; Wave B 1,081.04.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
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            "detail": "A length 171.70; C length 24.67.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
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          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.14\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
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        ],
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          {
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          },
          {
            "index": 271,
            "date": "2026-09-11",
            "price": 989.12,
            "kind": "low",
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            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": true,
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          },
          {
            "index": 274,
            "date": "2026-10-02",
            "price": 1081.04,
            "kind": "high",
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            "weeks": 3,
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          },
          {
            "index": 275,
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        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 33
      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
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        "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
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            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
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            "detail": "Origin 989.12; Wave 2 1,056.37.",
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        ],
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            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 1.",
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        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 271,
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            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": true,
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            "index": 274,
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        "evidence_weight": 33
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    ],
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        "key": "strategic",
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        "candidate_count": 0,
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        "key": "primary",
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        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 989.12; Wave 2 1,056.37.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 271,
              "date": "2026-09-11",
              "price": 989.12,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -14.79090298197243,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 274,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 1081.04,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 9.293109026205109,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 1056.37,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -2.282061718345304,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 989.12,
          "confirmation": 1081.04,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 9.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 6.49671261856998,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 989.12; Wave 2 1,056.37.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 271,
              "date": "2026-09-11",
              "price": 989.12,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -14.79090298197243,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 274,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 1081.04,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 9.293109026205109,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 1056.37,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -2.282061718345304,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 989.12,
          "confirmation": 1081.04,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 52,
      "changes": 3,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Moderate"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave2_trough",
    "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 73,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 271,
        "date": "2026-09-11",
        "price": 989.12,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -14.79090298197243,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 1081.04,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 9.293109026205109,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 1056.37,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -2.282061718345304,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Price is above the 30-week trend line.",
      "Market Activity is positive.",
      "30-week price rate of change is positive.",
      "Relative Strength is positive."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 5.915964432770022,
      "fair_value_gap": 36.01723474346668,
      "market_activity": 9.15972,
      "market_dynamics": -0.526291,
      "relative_strength": 3.52255,
      "roc30": 43.59283547042871,
      "hurst_alignment": 25,
      "hurst_risk": 75
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 5.9% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 6.798972824328685
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -3.4080801653189505
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 37.136152584270064
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 11.911007500676432
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 1177.126569,
      "low_52": 700.115301,
      "position_52": 74.68475545529458,
      "drawdown": -10.25858834386739
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 42.27195885590888,
      "average_weekly_range": 8.047295332530018,
      "active_drawdown": -8.997559631860874
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 271,
        "date": "2026-09-11",
        "price": 989.12,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -14.79090298197243,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 1081.04,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 9.293109026205109,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 271,
        "date": "2026-09-11",
        "price": 989.12,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -14.79090298197243,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
      "trend": 997.366172,
      "fair_value": 776.644226,
      "trend_gap": 5.915964432770022,
      "fair_value_gap": 36.01723474346668
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    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 1081.04,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 9.293109026205109,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 1056.37,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -2.282061718345304,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -2.282061718345304,
      "weeks": 1,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "5.9% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+3.5",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+9.2",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.5",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+43.6",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 4,
      "negative": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 31
    },
    "volume_ratio": 91.98932982160865,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 68,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 67,
          "positive_rate": 52.2,
          "median_return": 0.66,
          "bar_width": 3.3000000000000003,
          "average_return": 1.16,
          "best_return": 23.17,
          "worst_return": -21.85
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 65,
          "positive_rate": 70.8,
          "median_return": 9.15,
          "bar_width": 45.75,
          "average_return": 9.47,
          "best_return": 58.61,
          "worst_return": -26.62
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 65,
          "positive_rate": 90.8,
          "median_return": 21.97,
          "bar_width": 100.0,
          "average_return": 23.09,
          "best_return": 74.15,
          "worst_return": -25.03
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close above 1,081.04, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 989.12; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 23,
      "constructive_count": 18,
      "constructive_percent": 78,
      "rising_cycle_count": 4,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 17,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 200,
          "positive_rate": 58.5,
          "median_return": 1.88,
          "average_return": 2.3,
          "median_excess_return": 1.71,
          "excess_observations": 200,
          "p10": -7.43,
          "p90": 13.83
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 113,
          "positive_rate": 65.5,
          "median_return": 4.41,
          "average_return": 7.23,
          "median_excess_return": 1.07,
          "excess_observations": 113,
          "p10": -9.7,
          "p90": 23.95
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 90,
          "positive_rate": 77.8,
          "median_return": 14.05,
          "average_return": 18.31,
          "median_excess_return": 6.71,
          "excess_observations": 90,
          "p10": -6.99,
          "p90": 46.92
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "SPY",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": "2026-10-28",
      "earnings_weeks": 3,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "bearish",
      "options_conviction": 40.17,
      "expected_move": 4.2551379,
      "invalidation_distance": 6.366140651476273,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [
        "Earnings are due in about 3 weeks.",
        "Stored options pressure is bearish with 40/100 conviction."
      ],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 32,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 5.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 75% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 75,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 5,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 48,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 5,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Earnings are about 3 week(s) away."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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