{ "ticker": { "symbol": "7750", "name": "Syntec Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-14", "latest_close": 2355.0, "latest_open": 2390.0, "latest_high": 2540.0, "latest_low": 2285.0, "bar_count": 111, "analysis_bar_count": 111, "reversal_percent": 11.582793681121956, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-14", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 40, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 554.891724, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 42, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 429.498016, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.597869562026474, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true 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1.1444067414228332 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 1.521229301608131 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 1.7651287246232055 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 1.9372332130740395 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 2.0556865848065677 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 2.1191324765876196 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 2.1470534497302762 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 2.019733118974318 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 1.9243763946916825 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 2.04247462979495 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 2.1863850791044857 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 2.332305970741529 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.457075116250868 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 2.5407568205280207 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 2.59966759746066 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 2.640907566642702 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 2.662478092319865 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 2.4439288835483097 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 2.15002586647824 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 2.023294343825252 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.572613937193851 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.394329087505945 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.156473913222593 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.7434559212748675 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.6526675052960127 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.6166545798350231 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.8582970554258165 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": 1.0314361164960333 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 656.59; Wave 2 696.08.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 966.62; Wave 3 2575.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 966.62; Wave 4 1815.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 310.03, 1878.92, 540.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 2575.00; Wave 5 2355.00.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 87% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 6.06\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 12w; Wave 4 lasted 11w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 55, "date": "2025-07-18", "price": 656.588928, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.185379173851526, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 61, "date": "2025-08-29", "price": 966.617371, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.218043098040184, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 73, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 696.083008, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -27.987740663104642, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 2575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 269.92714524070095, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1815.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.514563106796118, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 2355.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.75206611570248, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 1815.0, "confirmation": 2355.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 87 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 2575.00; Wave 2 2355.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 71% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 95, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 2575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 269.92714524070095, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1815.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.514563106796118, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 2355.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.75206611570248, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 2575.0, "confirmation": 1815.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 8 }, { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 696.08; Wave B 1815.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1878.92; C length 540.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.29\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 73, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 696.083008, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -27.987740663104642, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 2575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 269.92714524070095, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1815.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.514563106796118, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 2355.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.75206611570248, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 2355.0, "confirmation": 1815.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 5 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 18.53246988979513, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave5", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 429.50; Wave 2 696.08.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 966.62; Wave 3 2575.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 966.62; Wave 4 1815.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 537.12, 1878.92, 540.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 2575.00; Wave 5 2355.00.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 50% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 3.50\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 12w; Wave 4 lasted 11w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 42, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 429.498016, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.597869562026474, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 61, "date": "2025-08-29", "price": 966.617371, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 125.05747057979427, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 73, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 696.083008, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -27.987740663104642, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 2575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 269.92714524070095, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1815.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.514563106796118, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 2355.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.75206611570248, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 1815.0, "confirmation": 2355.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 18.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 11.582793681121956, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 656.59; Wave 2 696.08.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 966.62; Wave 3 2575.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 966.62; Wave 4 1815.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 310.03, 1878.92, 540.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 2575.00; Wave 5 2355.00.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 87% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 6.06\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 12w; Wave 4 lasted 11w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 55, "date": "2025-07-18", "price": 656.588928, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.185379173851526, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 61, "date": "2025-08-29", "price": 966.617371, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.218043098040184, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 73, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 696.083008, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -27.987740663104642, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 2575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 269.92714524070095, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1815.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.514563106796118, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 2355.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.75206611570248, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 1815.0, "confirmation": 2355.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 87 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 11.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 8.107955576785368, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 8.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave5_risk", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 76, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "labels": [ { "index": 55, "date": "2025-07-18", "price": 656.588928, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.185379173851526, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 61, "date": "2025-08-29", "price": 966.617371, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.218043098040184, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 73, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 696.083008, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -27.987740663104642, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 2575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 269.92714524070095, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1815.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.514563106796118, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 2355.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.75206611570248, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "notes": [ "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 29.7893225876842, "fair_value_gap": 152.96419767848667, "market_activity": 19.317638, "market_dynamics": -0.699575, "relative_strength": 30.158079, "roc30": 178.9670265843174, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 29.8% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 29.75206611570248 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -7.8277886497064575 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 116.83347526273575 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 218.8727480333188 } ], "range": { "high_52": 3070.0, "low_52": 689.171518, "position_52": 69.9684372307505, "drawdown": -23.289902280130292 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 67.50475996298078, "average_weekly_range": 13.6469857045427, "active_drawdown": -8.54368932038835 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1815.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.514563106796118, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 95, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 2575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 269.92714524070095, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 95, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 2575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 269.92714524070095, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 1814.478998, "fair_value": 930.961781, "trend_gap": 29.7893225876842, "fair_value_gap": 152.96419767848667 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1815.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.514563106796118, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 2355.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.75206611570248, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 29.75206611570248, "weeks": 4, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "29.8% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+30.2", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+19.3", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.7", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+179.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 2, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 111, "confirmed_pivots": 8 }, "volume_ratio": 53.61391327454656, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 24, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 23, "positive_rate": 47.8, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": 5.28, "best_return": 92.16, "worst_return": -23.42 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 16, "positive_rate": 87.5, "median_return": 33.85, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 32.11, "best_return": 72.64, "worst_return": -18.21 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 14, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 157.59, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 150.54, "best_return": 219.34, "worst_return": 52.49 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "mature", "label": "Mature / manage risk", "now": "Five-wave advance mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 1815.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 14, "constructive_percent": 58, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 38, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 180, "positive_rate": 50.0, "median_return": 0.26, "average_return": 1.54, "median_excess_return": -0.49, "excess_observations": 180, "p10": -10.77, "p90": 19.1 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 115, "positive_rate": 53.0, "median_return": 2.69, "average_return": 9.33, "median_excess_return": -1.38, "excess_observations": 115, "p10": -17.45, "p90": 46.95 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 95, "positive_rate": 55.8, "median_return": 5.63, "average_return": 16.58, "median_excess_return": -2.2, "excess_observations": 95, "p10": -24.51, "p90": 83.4 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 22.929936305732483, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 71, "label": "High vulnerability", "tone": "high", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 25, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 20, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Price is 29.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 70% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.", "Price is 29.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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