{ "ticker": { "symbol": "EMXU", "name": "Amundi MSCI Emerging Ex China ESG Selection - UCITS ETF DR (C)", "exchange": "EBS" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 65.489998, "latest_open": 63.139999, "latest_high": 65.489998, "latest_low": 62.389999, "bar_count": 116, "analysis_bar_count": 116, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 92, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 63.57, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 56.040001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.845208431650155, 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1.5692090615629903 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 1.7168938669532205 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 1.7437854239473474 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 1.8037094781512657 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 1.8477240461851312 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 1.8484612064327355 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 1.3885679820567092 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.866946797683378 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.48041503341223063 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.21822255459111384 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.18543721227961119 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.508710900252491 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.930482384868675 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 1.0742167977406176 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.0149674545214928 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.369908374362187 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.4333795227271444 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.5370575399363804 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.699436292596269 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.5538630186477347 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.465513563543003 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.6145449213941114 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.4452148687694262 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.4107315812504897 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.2131403015505464 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.7369202078700546 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.49664741756463027 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.294799903239413 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.42384543765525484 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 69.24; Wave 2 65.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 48% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.239998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.554598080753074, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 61.970001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.49970712015329, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 65.489998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.680162890428218, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 69.239998, "confirmation": 61.970001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 56.04; Wave B 61.97.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 13.20; C length 3.52.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.27\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 56.040001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.845208431650155, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.239998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.554598080753074, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 61.970001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.49970712015329, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 65.489998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.680162890428218, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 65.489998, "confirmation": 61.970001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 25 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 69.24; Wave 2 65.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 48% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.239998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.049926389187827, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 61.970001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.49970712015329, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 65.489998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.680162890428218, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 69.239998, "confirmation": 61.970001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 69.24; Wave 2 65.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 48% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.239998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.554598080753074, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 61.970001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.49970712015329, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 65.489998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.680162890428218, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 69.239998, "confirmation": 61.970001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 69.24; Wave 2 65.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 48% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.239998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.049926389187827, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 61.970001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.49970712015329, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 65.489998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.680162890428218, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 69.239998, "confirmation": 61.970001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 82, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.239998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.554598080753074, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 61.970001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.49970712015329, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 65.489998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.680162890428218, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 4.179477463149945, "fair_value_gap": 24.62487986134573, "market_activity": 4.763388, "market_dynamics": -0.544529, "relative_strength": -0.31016, "roc30": 12.487112461574839, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 4.2% above its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.8027855560187372 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -1.5780026814246721 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 6.713376351855571 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 26.452976897992343 } ], "range": { "high_52": 69.860001, "low_52": 51.259998, "position_52": 76.5053640045112, "drawdown": -6.255372083375717 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 27.14858379220566, "average_weekly_range": 2.8639702542313255, "active_drawdown": -5.415944697167669 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 61.970001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.49970712015329, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.239998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.554598080753074, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 69.239998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.554598080753074, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 62.862667, "fair_value": 52.549698, "trend_gap": 4.179477463149945, "fair_value_gap": 24.62487986134573 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 61.970001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.49970712015329, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 115, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 65.489998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.680162890428218, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 5.680162890428218, "weeks": 3, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "4.2% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.3", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+4.8", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+12.5", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 74, "history_score": 45, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 116, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 139.1458320770922, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 6, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 6, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 6.0, "bar_width": 30.0, "average_return": 6.03, "best_return": 11.85, "worst_return": 0.39 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 6, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 12.36, "bar_width": 61.8, "average_return": 11.5, "best_return": 18.63, "worst_return": 2.37 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 3, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 18.91, "bar_width": 94.55, "average_return": 20.13, "best_return": 25.25, "worst_return": 16.22 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 61.97, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 69.24; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 138, "positive_rate": 55.8, "median_return": 0.97, "average_return": -1.24, "median_excess_return": -0.31, "excess_observations": 138, "p10": -13.34, "p90": 5.33 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 93, "positive_rate": 62.4, "median_return": 3.39, "average_return": 2.0, "median_excess_return": 4.56, "excess_observations": 93, "p10": -18.84, "p90": 10.7 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 71, "positive_rate": 71.8, "median_return": 9.02, "average_return": 7.37, "median_excess_return": 7.79, "excess_observations": 71, "p10": -28.7, "p90": 22.61 } ], "benchmark": "^SSMI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 5.72606522296733, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 35, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 4.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 1, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 6, "explanation": "Price is 77% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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