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-0.5675675625447408 }, { "date": "2025-04-18", "value": -0.5675675647771083 }, { "date": "2025-04-25", "value": -0.567567565893292 }, { "date": "2025-05-02", "value": -0.5675675666374145 }, { "date": "2025-05-09", "value": -0.5675675670094757 }, { "date": "2025-05-16", "value": -0.5675675672575167 }, { "date": "2025-05-23", "value": -0.567567567381537 }, { "date": "2025-05-30", "value": -0.5675675674642172 }, { "date": "2025-06-06", "value": -0.5675675675055574 }, { "date": "2025-06-13", "value": -0.5675675675331174 }, { "date": "2025-06-20", "value": -0.5675675675468975 }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "value": -0.5675675675560842 }, { "date": "2025-07-04", "value": -0.5675675675606775 }, { "date": "2025-07-11", "value": -0.5675675675637397 }, { "date": "2025-07-18", "value": -0.5675675675652709 }, { "date": "2025-07-25", "value": -0.5675675675662917 }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "value": -0.567567567566802 }, { "date": "2025-08-08", "value": -0.5675675675671423 }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "value": -0.5675675675673124 }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "value": -0.5675675675674259 }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "value": -0.5675675675674826 }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "value": -0.5675675675675202 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "value": -0.5675675675675392 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "value": -0.5675675675675519 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": -0.5675675675675582 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": -0.5675675675675623 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": -0.5675675675675644 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": -0.5675675675675659 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": 1.1981981981981986 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": 1.9909909909909913 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": 1.5265265265265267 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": 1.4624624624624625 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": 0.204315426537649 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": -0.1747302858413969 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": -0.27418776801492845 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": -0.2894128696597831 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": -1.2014552275183275 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": -1.5948178631306202 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": -1.8905785590498287 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": -2.0872857005763574 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": -2.218268243009729 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": -2.305538087326094 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": -2.3637006999905985 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": -2.4024700139181334 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -2.4283143028091114 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": -2.4455431886050816 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -2.457028899091946 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -2.4646859682908167 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -2.4697906573814956 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -2.473193775539092 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -2.475462518343204 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -2.4769750126678503 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -2.477983341924916 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -2.4786555613320607 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -2.4791037075709683 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -2.479402471719399 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -2.4796016478147394 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -2.4797344318770946 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -2.4798229545849306 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -2.479881969723354 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -2.4799213131489255 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -2.479947542099291 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -2.424359718223778 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -2.336855828514108 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -2.243274370200534 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -2.167819126331411 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -1.9944058206395774 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -1.7005064468563749 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -1.5118155476480628 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -1.365014167006563 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.25; Wave 2 13.65.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 0% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 70, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 21.2507, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 71, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 13.646, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.78564470817431, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.646, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.0, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 21.2507, "confirmation": 13.646, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.25; Wave 2 13.65.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 0% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 70, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 21.2507, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 71, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 13.646, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.78564470817431, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.646, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.0, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 21.2507, "confirmation": 13.646, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.25; Wave 2 13.65.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 0% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 70, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 21.2507, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 71, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 13.646, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.78564470817431, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.646, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.0, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 21.2507, "confirmation": 13.646, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.25; Wave 2 13.65.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 0% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 70, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 21.2507, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 71, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 13.646, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.78564470817431, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.646, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.0, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 21.2507, "confirmation": 13.646, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.25; Wave 2 13.65.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 0% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 70, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 21.2507, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 71, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 13.646, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.78564470817431, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.646, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.0, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 21.2507, "confirmation": 13.646, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.25; Wave 2 13.65.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 0% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 70, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 21.2507, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 71, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 13.646, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.78564470817431, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.646, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.0, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 21.2507, "confirmation": 13.646, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 59, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 70, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 21.2507, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 71, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 13.646, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.78564470817431, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.646, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.0, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 0.0, "fair_value_gap": -0.49511083609408835, "market_activity": -0.068243, "market_dynamics": 0.328019, "relative_strength": -10.949501, "roc30": 0.0, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 0.0% above its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 0.0 } ], "range": { "high_52": 21.2507, "low_52": 13.646, "position_52": 0.0, "drawdown": -35.78564470817431 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 0.0, "average_weekly_range": 0.0, "active_drawdown": -35.78564470817431 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": { "index": 70, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 21.2507, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 70, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 21.2507, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 13.646, "fair_value": 13.713899, "trend_gap": 0.0, "fair_value_gap": -0.49511083609408835 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 71, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 13.646, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.78564470817431, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.646, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.0, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 0.0, "weeks": 40, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "0.0% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-10.9", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.1", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "neutral", "value": "+0.0", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." } ], "positive": 2, "negative": 3, "neutral": 2, "observed": 7, "agreement": 43, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 67, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 33, "weekly_observations": 112, "confirmed_pivots": 2 }, "volume_ratio": null, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 18, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 17, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 8, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 7, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 13.65, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 21.25; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 696, "positive_rate": 62.4, "median_return": 0.89, "average_return": 0.74, "median_excess_return": 0.03, "excess_observations": 696, "p10": -6.54, "p90": 6.54 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 244, "positive_rate": 71.3, "median_return": 3.44, "average_return": 3.37, "median_excess_return": 1.44, "excess_observations": 244, "p10": -11.5, "p90": 17.53 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 133, "positive_rate": 76.7, "median_return": 5.49, "average_return": 4.99, "median_excess_return": 3.54, "excess_observations": 133, "p10": -16.93, "p90": 26.25 } ], "benchmark": "^SSMI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 55.72841858420048, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 15, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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