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        "label": "10w",
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        {
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          "hard": true
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      ],
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          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
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          "detail": "Retraced 63% of Wave 1.",
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        {
          "index": 251,
          "date": "2026-04-24",
          "price": 5.5,
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        {
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      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 33
    },
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        "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
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            "price": 5.5,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -16.030534351145036,
            "weeks": 10,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 266,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 8.75,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 59.09090909090909,
            "weeks": 15,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 6.7,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -23.428571428571427,
            "weeks": 9,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 5.5,
        "confirmation": 8.75,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 33
      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 5.50; Wave 2 6.70.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 63% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 251,
            "date": "2026-04-24",
            "price": 5.5,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -16.030534351145036,
            "weeks": 10,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 266,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 8.75,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 59.09090909090909,
            "weeks": 15,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 6.7,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -23.428571428571427,
            "weeks": 9,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 5.5,
        "confirmation": 8.75,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 33
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.841184655138179,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 5.50; Wave 2 6.70.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 63% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 251,
              "date": "2026-04-24",
              "price": 5.5,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -16.030534351145036,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 266,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 8.75,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 59.09090909090909,
              "weeks": 15,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 6.7,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -23.428571428571427,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 5.5,
          "confirmation": 8.75,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.525740409461362,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 5.50; Wave 2 6.70.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 63% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 251,
              "date": "2026-04-24",
              "price": 5.5,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -16.030534351145036,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 266,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 8.75,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 59.09090909090909,
              "weeks": 15,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 6.7,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -23.428571428571427,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 5.5,
          "confirmation": 8.75,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.8680182866229527,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 5.50; Wave 2 6.70.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 63% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 251,
              "date": "2026-04-24",
              "price": 5.5,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -16.030534351145036,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 266,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 8.75,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 59.09090909090909,
              "weeks": 15,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 6.7,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -23.428571428571427,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 5.5,
          "confirmation": 8.75,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 33
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 100,
      "changes": 0,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave2_trough",
    "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 57,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 251,
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "price": 5.5,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -16.030534351145036,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 266,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 8.75,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 59.09090909090909,
        "weeks": 15,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 6.7,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -23.428571428571427,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Market Activity is positive.",
      "30-week price rate of change is positive."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -2.7576197387518073,
      "fair_value_gap": 1.5733561261923092,
      "market_activity": 7.356328,
      "market_dynamics": -0.597657,
      "relative_strength": -4.82606,
      "roc30": 15.51724137931035,
      "hurst_alignment": 50,
      "hurst_risk": 50
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 2.8% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -7.586206896551722
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -18.787878787878785
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 19.642857142857153
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 13.559322033898303
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 8.85,
      "low_52": 5.5,
      "position_52": 35.82089552238807,
      "drawdown": -24.293785310734457
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 41.11780675035791,
      "average_weekly_range": 2.8146052832187385,
      "active_drawdown": -65.44230828050262
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 251,
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "price": 5.5,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -16.030534351145036,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 266,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 8.75,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 59.09090909090909,
        "weeks": 15,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 251,
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "price": 5.5,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -16.030534351145036,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
      "trend": 6.89,
      "fair_value": 6.596218,
      "trend_gap": -2.7576197387518073,
      "fair_value_gap": 1.5733561261923092
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 266,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 8.75,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 59.09090909090909,
        "weeks": 15,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 6.7,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -23.428571428571427,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -23.428571428571427,
      "weeks": 9,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "2.8% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-4.8",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+7.4",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.6",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+15.5",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 2,
      "negative": 4,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 31
    },
    "volume_ratio": 201.61537390335607,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 69,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 69,
          "positive_rate": 43.5,
          "median_return": 0.0,
          "bar_width": 0.0,
          "average_return": 0.75,
          "best_return": 29.63,
          "worst_return": -16.42
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 69,
          "positive_rate": 43.5,
          "median_return": -0.47,
          "bar_width": 2.3499999999999996,
          "average_return": 1.58,
          "best_return": 54.55,
          "worst_return": -22.39
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 65,
          "positive_rate": 29.2,
          "median_return": -11.42,
          "bar_width": 57.1,
          "average_return": -6.06,
          "best_return": 29.46,
          "worst_return": -24.65
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close above 8.75, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 5.50; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 12,
      "constructive_count": 7,
      "constructive_percent": 58,
      "rising_cycle_count": 3,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 25,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 42,
          "positive_rate": 38.1,
          "median_return": -2.78,
          "average_return": -2.76,
          "median_excess_return": -3.2,
          "excess_observations": 42,
          "p10": -16.4,
          "p90": 7.12
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 22,
          "positive_rate": 27.3,
          "median_return": -11.18,
          "average_return": -10.05,
          "median_excess_return": -10.19,
          "excess_observations": 22,
          "p10": -32.91,
          "p90": 13.13
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 18,
          "positive_rate": 44.4,
          "median_return": -6.5,
          "average_return": 0.45,
          "median_excess_return": -9.92,
          "excess_observations": 18,
          "p10": -37.79,
          "p90": 48.07
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^SET.BK",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 17.910447761194032,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 19,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 2.8% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 36% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 8,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
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      "2025-11-28",
      "2025-12-05",
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