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  "structure": {
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      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave2",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
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        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 3,190.00; Wave 2 1,525.00.",
          "hard": true
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      ],
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        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Retraced 6% of Wave 1.",
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      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 262,
          "date": "2026-07-10",
          "price": 3190.0,
          "kind": "high",
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          "weeks": 2,
          "confirmed": true,
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        {
          "index": 274,
          "date": "2026-10-02",
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        {
          "index": 275,
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      "invalidation": 3190.0,
      "confirmation": 1428.0,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 50
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
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        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 58,
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          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
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            "detail": "Origin 3,190.00; Wave 2 1,525.00.",
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        ],
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          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
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            "detail": "Retraced 6% of Wave 1.",
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            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 6.792717086834734,
            "weeks": 1,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 3190.0,
        "confirmation": 1428.0,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 50
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.0,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 3,190.00; Wave 2 1,525.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 6% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 262,
              "date": "2026-07-10",
              "price": 3190.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 19.252336448598133,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 274,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 1428.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -55.23510971786834,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 1525.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 6.792717086834734,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 3190.0,
          "confirmation": 1428.0,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 50
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.5,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 3,190.00; Wave 2 1,525.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 6% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 262,
              "date": "2026-07-10",
              "price": 3190.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 19.252336448598133,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 274,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 1428.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -55.23510971786834,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 1525.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 6.792717086834734,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 3190.0,
          "confirmation": 1428.0,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 50
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 84,
      "changes": 1,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "hurst_crest_risk",
    "title": "Hurst crest risk",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 82,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 262,
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "price": 3190.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 19.252336448598133,
        "weeks": 2,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 1428.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -55.23510971786834,
        "weeks": 12,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 1525.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 6.792717086834734,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.",
      "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.",
      "Market Activity has fallen below zero.",
      "Market Dynamics is negative.",
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -49.181912093038754,
      "fair_value_gap": -72.33276967480668,
      "market_activity": -66.787411,
      "market_dynamics": -1.52383,
      "relative_strength": -63.206407,
      "roc30": -60.796915167095115,
      "hurst_alignment": 0,
      "hurst_risk": 100
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 49.2% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -11.696583671105964
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -52.19435736677116
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -60.74646074646075
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": -64.11764705882354
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 5000.0,
      "low_52": 1347.0,
      "position_52": 4.872707363810567,
      "drawdown": -69.5
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 68.65934058132643,
      "average_weekly_range": 13.09252376486064,
      "active_drawdown": -95.05672609400324
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 1428.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -55.23510971786834,
        "weeks": 12,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 262,
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "price": 3190.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 19.252336448598133,
        "weeks": 2,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 262,
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "price": 3190.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 19.252336448598133,
        "weeks": 2,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 3000.9,
      "fair_value": 5511.935897,
      "trend_gap": -49.181912093038754,
      "fair_value_gap": -72.33276967480668
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 1428.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -55.23510971786834,
        "weeks": 12,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 1525.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 6.792717086834734,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 6.792717086834734,
      "weeks": 1,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "49.2% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Troughing",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-63.2",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-66.8",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-1.5",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-60.8",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 1,
      "negative": 6,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 86,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 48
    },
    "volume_ratio": 125.9356469823735,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 157,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 156,
          "positive_rate": 26.9,
          "median_return": -3.31,
          "bar_width": 16.55,
          "average_return": -3.46,
          "best_return": 27.57,
          "worst_return": -38.44
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 147,
          "positive_rate": 21.8,
          "median_return": -9.25,
          "bar_width": 46.25,
          "average_return": -7.9,
          "best_return": 30.8,
          "worst_return": -51.01
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 141,
          "positive_rate": 14.9,
          "median_return": -13.61,
          "bar_width": 68.05,
          "average_return": -14.25,
          "best_return": 20.26,
          "worst_return": -41.2
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "setup",
      "label": "Setup in timing window",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 1,428.00, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 3190.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 7,
      "constructive_percent": 29,
      "rising_cycle_count": 7,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 29,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 704,
          "positive_rate": 48.3,
          "median_return": -0.22,
          "average_return": 0.54,
          "median_excess_return": -1.25,
          "excess_observations": 704,
          "p10": -12.56,
          "p90": 13.39
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 264,
          "positive_rate": 48.1,
          "median_return": -0.54,
          "average_return": 0.98,
          "median_excess_return": -3.7,
          "excess_observations": 264,
          "p10": -19.71,
          "p90": 23.71
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 145,
          "positive_rate": 44.1,
          "median_return": -4.23,
          "average_return": 1.52,
          "median_excess_return": -8.82,
          "excess_observations": 145,
          "p10": -26.77,
          "p90": 29.53
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^KS11",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 109.18032786885246,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 17,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 49.2% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 5% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 2,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 16,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
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