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0.3191251253915687 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": 0.17934440343919314 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": 0.16597133461964597 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": -0.031127231847038764 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": 0.01909169921829106 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 0.11893662649209336 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 0.22105855432670798 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 0.30983009089696517 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 0.5394609393090452 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 0.6093779540987061 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 0.8009579666712183 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 0.9269275741097793 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.9028477027823274 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.7847784941184681 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.7250035833056838 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.7143798586540996 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.7795170793665258 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.818909587850375 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.44472423447874987 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.1249282212294118 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -0.2732454568867946 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.5177589725695583 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.5329172407372991 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.3376824318651004 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.01619934470010187 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.11366746863587637 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.17548761203455662 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.2231661990482392 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.17089403181729773 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.3622735559754522 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.5524369504540645 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.5775500379662437 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.5245382857285225 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.5512641744941278 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.5046192563561928 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.722022022766318 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.7310541903944103 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.6523338827680044 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.6570124912893228 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.7958820993368819 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 153.13; Wave 2 166.60.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 189.02; Wave 3 190.88.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 62% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.68\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 42, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 153.127823, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.202874039980767, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 82, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 189.020004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.439359547350183, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 166.600006, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.861177402154743, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 190.880005, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.57382840670486, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 166.600006, "confirmation": 190.880005, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 43 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 73, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 153.13; Wave B 166.60.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 35.89; C length 24.28.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.68\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 42, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 153.127823, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.202874039980767, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 82, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 189.020004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.439359547350183, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 166.600006, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.861177402154743, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 190.880005, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.57382840670486, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 190.880005, "confirmation": 166.600006, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 40 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 192.08; Wave 2 190.88.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 192.080002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.294114695289986, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 184.880005, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.7484365498913292, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 190.880005, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.2453482462854755, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 192.080002, "confirmation": 184.880005, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 17 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 153.13; Wave 2 166.60.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 189.02; Wave 3 190.88.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 62% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.68\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 42, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 153.127823, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.202874039980767, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 82, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 189.020004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.439359547350183, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 166.600006, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.861177402154743, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 190.880005, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.57382840670486, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 166.600006, "confirmation": 190.880005, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 43 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 192.08; Wave 2 190.88.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 192.080002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.294114695289986, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 184.880005, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.7484365498913292, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 190.880005, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.2453482462854755, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 192.080002, "confirmation": 184.880005, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 17 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 42, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 153.127823, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.202874039980767, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 82, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 189.020004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.439359547350183, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 166.600006, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.861177402154743, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 190.880005, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.57382840670486, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 4.3215957732178465, "fair_value_gap": 13.363959418625603, "market_activity": 23.551821, "market_dynamics": 0.67481, "relative_strength": -0.264128, "roc30": 4.067172108463342, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 4.3% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.6247381234408755 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 5.377059762487921 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 3.953823220613868 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 8.965947776860684 } ], "range": { "high_52": 192.800003, "low_52": 163.5, "position_52": 93.44710647299253, "drawdown": -0.9958495695666522 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 18.415732746828276, "average_weekly_range": 2.5333577991380727, "active_drawdown": -0.6247381234408755 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 166.600006, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.861177402154743, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 166.600006, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.861177402154743, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 182.972666, "fair_value": 168.378033, "trend_gap": 4.3215957732178465, "fair_value_gap": 13.363959418625603 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 166.600006, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.861177402154743, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 190.880005, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.57382840670486, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 14.57382840670486, "weeks": 18, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "4.3% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.3", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+23.6", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.7", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+4.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 1, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 111, "confirmed_pivots": 6 }, "volume_ratio": 77.07419457579411, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 23, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 22, "positive_rate": 50.0, "median_return": -0.19, "bar_width": 0.95, "average_return": -1.22, "best_return": 4.15, "worst_return": -11.81 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 15, "positive_rate": 20.0, "median_return": -2.03, "bar_width": 10.149999999999999, "average_return": -2.29, "best_return": 6.1, "worst_return": -8.4 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 10, "positive_rate": 70.0, "median_return": 1.06, "bar_width": 5.300000000000001, "average_return": 1.16, "best_return": 4.72, "worst_return": -2.19 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible strategic count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 190.88, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 166.60; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 12, "constructive_percent": 55, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 495, "positive_rate": 53.9, "median_return": 0.39, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.25, "excess_observations": 495, "p10": -3.77, "p90": 4.86 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 177, "positive_rate": 60.5, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 177, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 9.15 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 93, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 2.47, "average_return": 3.45, "median_excess_return": -0.78, "excess_observations": 93, "p10": -10.55, "p90": 15.89 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 12.720032671834852, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 20, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 4.3% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 74, "explanation": "Price is 93% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 93% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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