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1.2869406024275065 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.8163116280899206 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.6043572961536812 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.6132374054332865 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.7631146597979523 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.9571268334776988 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.8991163437791447 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.754215256302663 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.8058947721310785 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.7721583007498296 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.7291590365757241 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.8211054307909396 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.6879673681065265 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.6431608818820198 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.553530250083427 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.28668759568385177 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.13055770110982207 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.020550294097774147 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.2060340812168338 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.1801157321189565 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.12150317806905558 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.15876078141089497 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11.48; Wave 2 10.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 62% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 98, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 11.48, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.196538246789505, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 8.79, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.432055749128928, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.456, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.95335608646189, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 11.48, "confirmation": 8.79, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11.48; Wave 2 10.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 62% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 98, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 11.48, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.196538246789505, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 8.79, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.432055749128928, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.456, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.95335608646189, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 11.48, "confirmation": 8.79, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11.25; Wave 2 10.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 68% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 11.254, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.67130166087292, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 8.79, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.89443753332149, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.456, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.95335608646189, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 11.254, "confirmation": 8.79, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 15.305776510797465, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11.48; Wave 2 10.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 62% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 98, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 11.48, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.196538246789505, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 8.79, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.432055749128928, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.456, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.95335608646189, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 11.48, "confirmation": 8.79, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 15.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 9.566110319248414, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11.48; Wave 2 10.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 62% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 98, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 11.48, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.196538246789505, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 8.79, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.432055749128928, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.456, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.95335608646189, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 11.48, "confirmation": 8.79, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 9.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 6.696277223473889, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11.25; Wave 2 10.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 68% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 11.254, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.67130166087292, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 8.79, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.89443753332149, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.456, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.95335608646189, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 11.254, "confirmation": 8.79, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 55, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 98, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 11.48, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.196538246789505, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 8.79, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.432055749128928, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.456, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.95335608646189, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 0.9870772083679408, "fair_value_gap": 49.797366683782, "market_activity": -11.980159, "market_dynamics": -0.777133, "relative_strength": 3.155485, "roc30": 5.8192490638599255, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 1.0% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 12.623869021973272 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -5.818771392541891 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -0.9473285335354268 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 76.32377740303541 } ], "range": { "high_52": 12.112, "low_52": 5.917, "position_52": 73.26876513317191, "drawdown": -13.672391017173055 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 45.76326773610914, "average_weekly_range": 5.454669530660037, "active_drawdown": -12.516733601070955 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 111, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 8.79, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.432055749128928, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 98, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 11.48, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.196538246789505, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 98, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 11.48, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.196538246789505, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 10.3538, "fair_value": 6.980096, "trend_gap": 0.9870772083679408, "fair_value_gap": 49.797366683782 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 111, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 8.79, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.432055749128928, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 114, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.456, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.95335608646189, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 18.95335608646189, "weeks": 3, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "1.0% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+3.2", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-12.0", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.8", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+5.8", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 2, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 44, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 115, "confirmed_pivots": 6 }, "volume_ratio": 136.33444209302212, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 13, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 13, "positive_rate": 30.8, "median_return": -2.35, "bar_width": 11.75, "average_return": -3.2, "best_return": 13.26, "worst_return": -15.53 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 6, "positive_rate": 16.7, "median_return": -11.13, "bar_width": 55.650000000000006, "average_return": -10.81, "best_return": 0.56, "worst_return": -23.43 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 8.79, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 11.48; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 138, "positive_rate": 55.8, "median_return": 0.97, "average_return": -1.24, "median_excess_return": -0.31, "excess_observations": 138, "p10": -13.34, "p90": 5.33 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 93, "positive_rate": 62.4, "median_return": 3.39, "average_return": 2.0, "median_excess_return": 4.56, "excess_observations": 93, "p10": -18.84, "p90": 10.7 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 71, "positive_rate": 71.8, "median_return": 9.02, "average_return": 7.37, "median_excess_return": 7.79, "excess_observations": 71, "p10": -28.7, "p90": 22.61 } ], "benchmark": "^SSMI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 9.793420045906666, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 14, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 1.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 73% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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