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"date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.6526031748149475 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.45126063787774695 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.3561947375722334 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.36135923352110033 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.21150144663494713 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.1828445559470544 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.27885609663445177 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.45395372405138307 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.514045279852764 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.55441206614644 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.7777379087565941 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.1817440439335947 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.3649120901059413 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -1.2405332877785398 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -1.0001077894046024 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.7401139908074117 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.32917611746294906 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.0774000029821307 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 186.95; Wave 2 164.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 48% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 75, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 186.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.856177075067198, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 142.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.66943070879001, "weeks": 38, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 164.100006, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.996502767971334, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 186.949997, "confirmation": 142.699997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 170.36; Wave 2 164.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 77% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 170.357529, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.517207906792345, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 142.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.23499246693112, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 164.100006, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.996502767971334, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 170.357529, "confirmation": 142.699997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 10.350369757514523, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 10.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 6.4689810984465765, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 186.95; Wave 2 164.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 48% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 75, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 186.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.856177075067198, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 142.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.66943070879001, "weeks": 38, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 164.100006, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.996502767971334, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 186.949997, "confirmation": 142.699997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.528286768912603, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 170.36; Wave 2 164.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 77% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 170.357529, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.517207906792345, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 142.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.23499246693112, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 164.100006, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.996502767971334, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 170.357529, "confirmation": 142.699997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 55, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 75, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 186.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.856177075067198, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 142.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.66943070879001, "weeks": 38, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 164.100006, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.996502767971334, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -0.4207100448520571, "fair_value_gap": 7.090679176110515, "market_activity": -18.99615, "market_dynamics": 0.070573, "relative_strength": -3.592578, "roc30": -7.7571604639851675, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 0.4% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 7.289970067799355 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -3.6731707936430515 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -6.708350427800461 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -4.063137607778935 } ], "range": { "high_52": 188.949997, "low_52": 142.699997, "position_52": 46.27028972972975, "drawdown": -13.15162286030626 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 18.626797755217993, "average_weekly_range": 2.0889894070861628, "active_drawdown": -12.222514772225427 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 142.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.66943070879001, "weeks": 38, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 75, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 186.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.856177075067198, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 75, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 186.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.856177075067198, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 164.793308, "fair_value": 153.23463, "trend_gap": -0.4207100448520571, "fair_value_gap": 7.090679176110515 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 142.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.66943070879001, "weeks": 38, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 164.100006, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.996502767971334, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 14.996502767971334, "weeks": 6, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "0.4% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-3.6", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-19.0", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-7.8", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 46, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 120, "confirmed_pivots": 6 }, "volume_ratio": 10.925123883101175, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 3, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 3, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -4.11, "bar_width": 20.55, "average_return": -4.32, "best_return": -3.4, "worst_return": -5.45 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 1, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 0.34, "bar_width": 1.7000000000000002, "average_return": 0.34, "best_return": 0.34, "worst_return": 0.34 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 142.70, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 186.95; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 427, "positive_rate": 42.9, "median_return": -1.12, "average_return": 0.54, "median_excess_return": -0.2, "excess_observations": 427, "p10": -8.23, "p90": 11.24 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 159, "positive_rate": 46.5, "median_return": -1.58, "average_return": 0.27, "median_excess_return": -0.04, "excess_observations": 159, "p10": -14.52, "p90": 16.37 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 88, "positive_rate": 44.3, "median_return": -1.05, "average_return": 0.47, "median_excess_return": -1.19, "excess_observations": 88, "p10": -20.39, "p90": 23.91 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 13.92443032573685, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 9, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.4% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 46% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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