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            "index": 126,
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "price": 320000.0,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -28.88888888888889,
            "weeks": 14,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 130,
            "date": "2026-08-28",
            "price": 461500.0,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 44.21875,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 134,
            "date": "2026-09-25",
            "price": 368500.0,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -20.151679306608884,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 320000.0,
        "confirmation": 461500.0,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 50
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 24.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 16.0,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 320,000.00; Wave 2 368,500.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 66% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 126,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 320000.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -28.88888888888889,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 130,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 461500.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 44.21875,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 134,
              "date": "2026-09-25",
              "price": 368500.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -20.151679306608884,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 320000.0,
          "confirmation": 461500.0,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 50
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 11.2,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 320,000.00; Wave 2 368,500.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 66% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 126,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 320000.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -28.88888888888889,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 130,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 461500.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 44.21875,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 134,
              "date": "2026-09-25",
              "price": 368500.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -20.151679306608884,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 320000.0,
          "confirmation": 461500.0,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 50
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 36,
      "changes": 4,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Low"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave2_trough",
    "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 57,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 126,
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "price": 320000.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -28.88888888888889,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 130,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 461500.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 44.21875,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 134,
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "price": 368500.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -20.151679306608884,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Market Activity is positive.",
      "30-week price rate of change is positive."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -3.2939934031118514,
      "fair_value_gap": 107.7358650293363,
      "market_activity": 0.682661,
      "market_dynamics": -0.192552,
      "relative_strength": -7.76157,
      "roc30": 18.46341537902667,
      "hurst_alignment": 0,
      "hurst_risk": 100
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 3.3% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -20.151679306608884
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 2.327277378512608
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 13.210445468509985
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 64.53251355436343
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 475000.0,
      "low_52": 203064.219491,
      "position_52": 60.8363416536592,
      "drawdown": -22.42105263157895
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 62.00993271785724,
      "average_weekly_range": 9.36494713099715,
      "active_drawdown": -20.151679306608884
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    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 126,
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "price": 320000.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -28.88888888888889,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 130,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 461500.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 44.21875,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 126,
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "price": 320000.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -28.88888888888889,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
      "trend": 381051.821875,
      "fair_value": 177388.723872,
      "trend_gap": -3.2939934031118514,
      "fair_value_gap": 107.7358650293363
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 130,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 461500.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 44.21875,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 134,
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "price": 368500.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -20.151679306608884,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -20.151679306608884,
      "weeks": 4,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "3.3% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-7.8",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.7",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.2",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+18.5",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 2,
      "negative": 5,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 71,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 83,
      "history_score": 52,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 135,
      "confirmed_pivots": 7
    },
    "volume_ratio": 75.2309471101952,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 13,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 13,
          "positive_rate": 61.5,
          "median_return": 1.14,
          "bar_width": 5.699999999999999,
          "average_return": 4.09,
          "best_return": 44.22,
          "worst_return": -15.67
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 4,
          "positive_rate": 50.0,
          "median_return": 33.99,
          "bar_width": 100.0,
          "average_return": 34.41,
          "best_return": 75.23,
          "worst_return": -5.58
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 2,
          "positive_rate": 100.0,
          "median_return": 63.21,
          "bar_width": 100.0,
          "average_return": 63.21,
          "best_return": 63.56,
          "worst_return": 62.86
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close above 461,500.00, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 320000.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 11,
      "constructive_percent": 46,
      "rising_cycle_count": 6,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 25,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 61,
          "positive_rate": 50.8,
          "median_return": 0.37,
          "average_return": 2.41,
          "median_excess_return": -2.43,
          "excess_observations": 61,
          "p10": -7.03,
          "p90": 14.71
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 55,
          "positive_rate": 61.8,
          "median_return": 1.68,
          "average_return": 5.14,
          "median_excess_return": -4.79,
          "excess_observations": 55,
          "p10": -11.59,
          "p90": 20.9
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 44,
          "positive_rate": 61.4,
          "median_return": 6.14,
          "average_return": 12.02,
          "median_excess_return": -10.69,
          "excess_observations": 44,
          "p10": -19.97,
          "p90": 53.99
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^KS11",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 13.16146540027137,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 32,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 3.3% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 61% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 6,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 64,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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