{ "ticker": { "symbol": "7709", "name": "Csop Leveraged And Inverse Series - Csop Sk Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product", "exchange": "HKG" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 31.059999, "latest_open": 36.880001, "latest_high": 41.5, "latest_low": 28.040001, "bar_count": 39, "analysis_bar_count": 39, "reversal_percent": 16.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 0, "date": "2025-11-14", "price": 12.9, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 1, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 10.57, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.06201550387597, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 15, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 39.740002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 275.96974456007564, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 17, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 26.4, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -33.56819659948684, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 18, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 31.76, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.30303030303032, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 20, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 21.24, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -33.12342569269522, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 28, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 137.649994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 548.0696516007533, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 30, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 106.550003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.593528772692856, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 31, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 161.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 51.10276439879593, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 35, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 44.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -72.17391366459627, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 36, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 52.740002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.72322137775047, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 38, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 31.059999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.107323052433706, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false } ], "cycle": { "phase": "falling", "trend_bias": "bearish", "oscillator": -43.07275348425121, "slope": -141.0726453586802, "dominant_period_weeks": 12, "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing", "weeks_since_turn": 2, "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 4, "series": [ { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": null }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 5.137113023466026 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 4.108942358929877 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 11.726800629415994 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 24.611793533259892 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 35.552639532805 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 54.521719146904445 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 85.10142734244315 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 112.31179873413139 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 133.5956414195002 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 167.5894146234807 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 158.9566072957814 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 143.9223231073146 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 148.89073211545337 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 131.08708735381654 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 117.74314287452823 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 97.999891874429 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 45.810544920454966 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 4.232359760358996 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -22.987243147145342 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -43.07275348425121 } ] }, "hurst": { "status": "mixed", "phase": "falling", "alignment_score": 46, "risk_score": 64, "trough_alignment": 46, "crest_alignment": 0, "nearest_trough_window": 2, "nearest_crest_window": 10, "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. 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Wave 2 52.74.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 44.80; Wave 3 31.06.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 7% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.19\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 31, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 161.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 51.10276439879593, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 35, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 44.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -72.17391366459627, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 36, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 52.740002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.72322137775047, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 38, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 31.059999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.107323052433706, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 52.740002, "confirmation": 31.059999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 161.00; Wave B 52.74.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 116.20; C length 21.68.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.19\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 31, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 161.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 51.10276439879593, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 35, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 44.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -72.17391366459627, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 36, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 52.740002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.72322137775047, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 38, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 31.059999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.107323052433706, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 31.059999, "confirmation": 52.740002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 23 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 161.00; Wave 2 52.74.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 44.80; Wave 3 31.06.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 7% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.19\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 31, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 161.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 51.10276439879593, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 35, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 44.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -72.17391366459627, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 36, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 52.740002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.72322137775047, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 38, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 31.059999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.107323052433706, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 52.740002, "confirmation": 31.059999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 24.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.24; Wave 2 31.06.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 93% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 20, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 21.24, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.552594536859864, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 31, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 161.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 658.0037664783428, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 38, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 31.059999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -80.7080751552795, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 21.24, "confirmation": 161.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 16.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 161.00; Wave 2 52.74.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 44.80; Wave 3 31.06.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 7% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.19\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 31, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 161.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 51.10276439879593, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 35, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 44.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -72.17391366459627, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 36, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 52.740002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.72322137775047, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 38, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 31.059999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.107323052433706, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 52.740002, "confirmation": 31.059999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 11.2, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 161.00; Wave 2 52.74.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 44.80; Wave 3 31.06.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 7% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.19\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 31, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 161.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 51.10276439879593, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 35, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 44.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -72.17391366459627, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 36, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 52.740002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.72322137775047, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 38, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 31.059999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.107323052433706, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 52.740002, "confirmation": 31.059999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 0, "changes": null, "observations": 0, "label": "Unavailable" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "warming", "title": "Needs more weekly history", "direction": "neutral", "confidence": 20, "labels": [], "notes": [ "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context." ], "metrics": {} }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 48.3% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 6 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -65.25727258932275 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -60.423040503706396 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 24.041524598980647 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": null } ], "range": { "high_52": 169.449997, "low_52": 10.31, "position_52": 13.038833348727538, "drawdown": -81.67010944237431 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 196.97896083398638, "average_weekly_range": 43.2020234695825, "active_drawdown": -80.7080751552795 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 20, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 21.24, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -33.12342569269522, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 36, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 52.740002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.72322137775047, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 20, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 21.24, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -33.12342569269522, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level", "trend": 60.112, "fair_value": 49.390257, "trend_gap": -48.329786066010115, "fair_value_gap": -37.1131051211173 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 36, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 52.740002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.72322137775047, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 38, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 31.059999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.107323052433706, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -41.107323052433706, "weeks": 2, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "48.3% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+6.9", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+48.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 2, "negative": 3, "neutral": 1, "observed": 6, "agreement": 50, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "neutral" }, "evidence": { "score": 41, "history_score": 15, "indicator_coverage": 36, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 39, "confirmed_pivots": 11 }, "volume_ratio": 228.53820311235776, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 0, "horizons": [], "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 31.06, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 52.74; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 132, "positive_rate": 53.8, "median_return": 1.17, "average_return": 1.96, "median_excess_return": 0.44, "excess_observations": 132, "p10": -6.66, "p90": 11.72 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 79, "positive_rate": 59.5, "median_return": 2.85, "average_return": 5.03, "median_excess_return": 0.52, "excess_observations": 79, "p10": -6.7, "p90": 18.63 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 58, "positive_rate": 50.0, "median_return": 0.42, "average_return": 3.01, "median_excess_return": 1.27, "excess_observations": 58, "p10": -14.8, "p90": 28.21 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 69.80039825500315, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 31, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 48.3% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 13% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 10, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 64/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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