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}, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": 0.12203499303135913 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": 0.12291851828405145 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": 0.16067127870609843 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": 0.06245233059084471 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": -0.06343616621424893 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": -0.10383915237892949 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": -0.2903295882584753 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": -0.6014336059195338 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": -0.6685147943055446 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": -0.7726183551805687 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": -0.6975009518990963 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": -0.6991568945904302 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": -0.7342034385946832 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": -0.7362136978356345 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": -0.5967600378124686 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": -0.563647590821351 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": -0.5686264275723 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": -0.6020308902197641 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": -0.6352245165942191 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": -0.659529878381584 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -0.5915644058405856 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -0.6341119995003024 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.7382379807067347 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -0.716846374600625 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.8376799499424539 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.9787477148416669 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -1.0311174703256194 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -1.040103719156627 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -1.0765393439954094 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -1.1044372557378583 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.8281003584184699 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.6816222942694111 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.8171812183587768 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.954628419676911 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.899630980299046 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.8941442226049892 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.8628034141186396 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.9372244237054909 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.8806834535587942 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.8552913108073301 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.9889615457390747 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.9093330073771206 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.9757285645665816 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -1.0498005676460103 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": -1.0698545535448436 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 90.21; Wave 2 73.03.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 67.18; Wave 3 64.60.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 25% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.37\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 98, "date": "2025-09-12", "price": 90.212944, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 38.58401043108281, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 130, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 67.179855, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.531911473812443, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 73.034096, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.714280493758139, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 145, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 64.599998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.54816512002833, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 73.034096, "confirmation": 64.599998, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 7 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 90.21; Wave B 73.03.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 23.03; C length 8.43.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.37\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 98, "date": "2025-09-12", "price": 90.212944, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 38.58401043108281, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 130, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 67.179855, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.531911473812443, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 73.034096, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.714280493758139, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 145, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 64.599998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.54816512002833, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 64.599998, "confirmation": 73.034096, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 4 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave5", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 129.91; Wave 2 114.08.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 96.39; Wave 3 65.10.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 96.39; Wave 4 90.21.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 33.53, 48.99, 25.61.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 65.10; Wave 5 64.60.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 53% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.46\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 22w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 53, "date": "2024-10-25", "price": 129.91304, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 55.000013899683665, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 58, "date": "2024-11-29", "price": 96.3871, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.806447143412235, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 59, "date": "2024-12-06", "price": 114.081345, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.357482484689335, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 76, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 65.096214, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -42.93877408265128, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2025-09-12", "price": 90.212944, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 38.58401043108281, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 145, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 64.599998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -28.391652976096196, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 90.212944, "confirmation": 64.599998, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 89 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 13.781539982779819, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave5", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 129.91; Wave 2 114.08.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 96.39; Wave 3 65.10.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 96.39; Wave 4 90.21.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 33.53, 48.99, 25.61.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 65.10; Wave 5 64.60.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 53% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.46\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 22w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 53, "date": "2024-10-25", "price": 129.91304, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 55.000013899683665, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 58, "date": "2024-11-29", "price": 96.3871, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.806447143412235, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 59, "date": "2024-12-06", "price": 114.081345, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.357482484689335, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 76, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 65.096214, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -42.93877408265128, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2025-09-12", "price": 90.212944, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 38.58401043108281, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 145, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 64.599998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -28.391652976096196, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 90.212944, "confirmation": 64.599998, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 89 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 13.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 8.613462489237387, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 90.21; Wave 2 73.03.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 67.18; Wave 3 64.60.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 25% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.37\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 98, "date": "2025-09-12", "price": 90.212944, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 38.58401043108281, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 130, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 67.179855, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.531911473812443, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 73.034096, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.714280493758139, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 145, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 64.599998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.54816512002833, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 73.034096, "confirmation": 64.599998, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 7 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 8.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 6.029423742466171, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 90.21; Wave 2 73.03.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 67.18; Wave 3 64.60.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 25% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.37\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 98, "date": "2025-09-12", "price": 90.212944, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 29.505657106567934, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 130, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 67.179855, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.531911473812443, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 73.034096, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.714280493758139, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 145, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 64.599998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.54816512002833, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 73.034096, "confirmation": 64.599998, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 85, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 98, "date": "2025-09-12", "price": 90.212944, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 38.58401043108281, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 130, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 67.179855, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.531911473812443, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 73.034096, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.714280493758139, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 145, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 64.599998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.54816512002833, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -7.585337111462322, "fair_value_gap": -19.682687923617888, "market_activity": -21.648254, "market_dynamics": -0.309318, "relative_strength": -40.713252, "roc30": -17.30731884653947, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 3 declining. Price is 7.6% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -10.131052023466204 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -13.369564256806784 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -22.182839831584392 } ], "range": { "high_52": 93.092081, "low_52": 63.0, "position_52": 5.317006823157228, "drawdown": -30.606344485950416 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 22.79560081166067, "average_weekly_range": 5.84616917234799, "active_drawdown": -50.274431265714355 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": { "index": 131, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 73.034096, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.714280493758139, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 131, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 73.034096, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.714280493758139, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 69.902325, "fair_value": 80.430976, "trend_gap": -7.585337111462322, "fair_value_gap": -19.682687923617888 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 131, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 73.034096, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.714280493758139, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 145, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 64.599998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.54816512002833, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -11.54816512002833, "weeks": 14, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "7.6% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-40.7", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-21.6", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-17.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 6, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 85, "history_score": 56, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 146, "confirmed_pivots": 13 }, "volume_ratio": 33.977861670629515, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 47, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 46, "positive_rate": 37.0, "median_return": -0.85, "bar_width": 4.25, "average_return": -0.44, "best_return": 19.56, "worst_return": -19.93 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 37, "positive_rate": 45.9, "median_return": -2.18, "bar_width": 10.9, "average_return": 3.11, "best_return": 28.13, "worst_return": -19.48 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 24, "positive_rate": 83.3, "median_return": 5.64, "bar_width": 28.2, "average_return": 6.78, "best_return": 36.52, "worst_return": -14.59 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 64.60, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 73.03; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 14, "constructive_percent": 58, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 38, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 338, "positive_rate": 53.3, "median_return": 0.99, "average_return": 2.37, "median_excess_return": 0.7, "excess_observations": 338, "p10": -11.73, "p90": 19.31 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 141, "positive_rate": 62.4, "median_return": 7.39, "average_return": 8.96, "median_excess_return": 3.33, "excess_observations": 141, "p10": -15.34, "p90": 32.27 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 92, "positive_rate": 63.0, "median_return": 9.51, "average_return": 17.05, "median_excess_return": 6.31, "excess_observations": 92, "p10": -18.63, "p90": 64.32 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 13.055879661172755, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 19, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 7.6% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 5% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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