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Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.", "cycles": [ { "period": 10, "label": "10w", "estimated_period": 12, "period_range": [ 8, 16 ], "period_strength": 20, "phase": "rising", "value": 1.3517143949420862, "slope": 0.6457560409456996, "amplitude": 3.894, "weeks_since_trough": 2, "weeks_since_crest": 3, "projected_trough_window": 10, "projected_crest_window": 9, "trough_window": { "start": 6, "midpoint": 10, "end": 14 }, "crest_window": { "start": 5, "midpoint": 9, "end": 13 }, "fld": { "value": 45.8050005, "state": "crossed up", "weeks_since_cross": 5, "displacement": 6, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": true, "value": 48.6299985, "state": "price above", "slope": 0.29999974999999957, "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased 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"2026-08-07", "value": 0.37476785672548285 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": null, "alternates": [], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 9.932816463727079, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 9.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 6.208010289829424, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.345607202880597, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_rising_stack", "title": "Hurst rising stack", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 82, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": null, "labels": [], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 9.216931425547594, "fair_value_gap": 17.168698054534364, "market_activity": 31.752904, "market_dynamics": 1.529464, "relative_strength": -10.136542, "roc30": -4.326480797181637, "hurst_alignment": 100, "hurst_risk": 0 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst rising stack. Price is 9.2% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 6.787056913868324 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 13.341229388581256 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 9.429254404215516 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -10.992727701797266 } ], "range": { "high_52": 63.790001, "low_52": 45.450001, "position_52": 39.149400218102514, "drawdown": -17.494904883290403 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 20.115330100861392, "average_weekly_range": 2.1149968119323317, "active_drawdown": -16.486827991113934 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 267, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 46.150002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.729987873888432, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 231, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 63.02, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.570260396950694, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 267, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 46.150002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.729987873888432, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 48.1885, "fair_value": 44.918141, "trend_gap": 9.216931425547594, "fair_value_gap": 17.168698054534364 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 267, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 46.150002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.729987873888432, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 52.630001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.041167322159595, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 14.041167322159595, "weeks": 8, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "9.2% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-10.1", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+31.8", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-4.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 26 }, "volume_ratio": 230.84257590795647, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 26, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 56.0, "median_return": 1.47, "bar_width": 7.35, "average_return": -0.05, "best_return": 9.23, "worst_return": -14.29 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 16, "positive_rate": 56.2, "median_return": 3.7, "bar_width": 18.5, "average_return": 0.7, "best_return": 20.47, "worst_return": -16.97 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 16, "positive_rate": 68.8, "median_return": 5.55, "bar_width": 27.75, "average_return": 6.61, "best_return": 25.43, "worst_return": -7.14 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "observing", "label": "Observing", "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.", "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.", "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.", "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 111, "positive_rate": 55.9, "median_return": 1.49, "average_return": 6.01, "median_excess_return": 0.13, "excess_observations": 111, "p10": -15.48, "p90": 25.86 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 71, "positive_rate": 59.2, "median_return": 1.37, "average_return": 6.95, "median_excess_return": 1.1, "excess_observations": 71, "p10": -29.93, "p90": 56.04 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 60, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 3.42, "average_return": 4.28, "median_excess_return": 1.09, "excess_observations": 60, "p10": -40.79, "p90": 40.83 } ], "benchmark": "^SSMI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": true, "options_direction": "mixed", "options_conviction": 26.5, "expected_move": 4.22016634, "invalidation_distance": null, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 13, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 5, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Price is 9.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 39% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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