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"value": 1.4692010386959184 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 1.2393283367697228 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 1.341284021359451 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 1.5916005478243203 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 1.7902944303262265 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 1.7570966619317083 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.6348643700742365 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.7031910081143404 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.6981033565555133 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.7357387967213398 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.8141393172558886 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.7328799192069244 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.6659633943509211 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.4143635731269129 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.043731206775669 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.8348870258464125 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.6091726067897574 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.4090769238371178 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.386163669792213 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 144.02; Wave 2 130.92.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 4% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 109, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 144.020004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.930608300924774, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 130.360001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.484795598255912, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 130.919998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.42957732103728763, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 144.020004, "confirmation": 130.360001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 115.28; Wave B 130.36.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 28.74; C length 0.56.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.02\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 115.279999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.746340668936982, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 144.020004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.930608300924774, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 130.360001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.484795598255912, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 130.919998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.42957732103728763, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 130.919998, "confirmation": 130.360001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 115.28; Wave 2 130.92.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 46% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 115.279999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.746340668936982, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 144.020004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.930608300924774, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 130.919998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.095962808055475, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 115.279999, "confirmation": 144.020004, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 43 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 10.746807992672633, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 144.02; Wave 2 130.92.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 109, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 144.020004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.930608300924774, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 116, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 127.18, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.692822894241827, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 130.919998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.940712376159762, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 144.020004, "confirmation": 127.18, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 10.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 6.716754995420395, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 144.02; Wave 2 130.92.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 4% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 109, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 144.020004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.930608300924774, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 130.360001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.484795598255912, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 130.919998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.42957732103728763, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 144.020004, "confirmation": 130.360001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.701728496794276, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 115.28; Wave 2 130.92.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 46% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 115.279999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.746340668936982, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 144.020004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.930608300924774, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 130.919998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.095962808055475, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 115.279999, "confirmation": 144.020004, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 43 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 89, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 109, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 144.020004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.930608300924774, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 130.360001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.484795598255912, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 130.919998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.42957732103728763, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 0.7924595536952511, "fair_value_gap": 32.5912080826516, "market_activity": -8.351757, "market_dynamics": -0.805369, "relative_strength": 10.709527, "roc30": 20.53028391096619, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 0.8% above its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.42957732103728763 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -2.0353195303451 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 5.122849645713419 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 55.91282177071785 } ], "range": { "high_52": 146.179993, "low_52": 78.980003, "position_52": 77.2916707279272, "drawdown": -10.43918164642408 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 24.681001755335423, "average_weekly_range": 4.60595345079416, "active_drawdown": -9.095962808055475 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 130.360001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.484795598255912, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 109, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 144.020004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.930608300924774, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 109, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 144.020004, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.930608300924774, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 129.890667, "fair_value": 98.739577, "trend_gap": 0.7924595536952511, "fair_value_gap": 32.5912080826516 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 130.360001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.484795598255912, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 130.919998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.42957732103728763, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 0.42957732103728763, "weeks": 4, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "0.8% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+10.7", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-8.4", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.8", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+20.5", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 45, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 118, "confirmed_pivots": 10 }, "volume_ratio": 52.28751757742241, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 13, "positive_rate": 69.2, "median_return": 3.74, "bar_width": 18.700000000000003, "average_return": 1.85, "best_return": 12.25, "worst_return": -9.48 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 5, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 4.32, "bar_width": 21.6, "average_return": 13.59, "best_return": 38.86, "worst_return": -6.69 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 2, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 45.6, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 45.6, "best_return": 47.69, "worst_return": 43.5 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 130.36, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 144.02; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 122, "positive_rate": 74.6, "median_return": 1.49, "average_return": 1.27, "median_excess_return": -0.06, "excess_observations": 122, "p10": -4.39, "p90": 6.07 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 68, "positive_rate": 64.7, "median_return": 2.06, "average_return": 2.93, "median_excess_return": 1.68, "excess_observations": 68, "p10": -6.7, "p90": 12.66 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 46, "positive_rate": 80.4, "median_return": 7.5, "average_return": 8.7, "median_excess_return": -0.36, "excess_observations": 46, "p10": -3.79, "p90": 19.36 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 10.006115337704182, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 33, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 1, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 9, "explanation": "Price is 77% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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