{ "ticker": { "symbol": "3439", "name": "Harvest Bitcoin Spot ETF", "exchange": "HKG" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 7.885, "latest_open": 7.825, "latest_high": 7.945, "latest_low": 7.66, "bar_count": 102, "analysis_bar_count": 102, "reversal_percent": 9.245585874799389, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 25, "date": "2025-02-21", "price": 12.2, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 26, "date": "2025-02-28", "price": 9.805, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.6311475409836, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 46, 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}, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.7756680171791842 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11.74; Wave 2 9.87.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 7.95; Wave 3 7.71.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 7.95; Wave 4 7.88.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.57\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 8% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 14w; Wave 4 lasted 9w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 72, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 11.74, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.870029097963139, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 75, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 7.945, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.325383304940374, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 9.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.229074889867825, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 7.71, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.884498480243153, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.885, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.2697795071335904, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 9.87, "confirmation": 7.71, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 55 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.87; Wave 2 7.88.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 8% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 89, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 9.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.229074889867825, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 7.71, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.884498480243153, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.885, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.2697795071335904, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 9.87, "confirmation": 7.71, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 9 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 14.87; Wave 2 9.87.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 7.95; Wave 3 7.71.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 7.95; Wave 4 7.88.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.31\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 8% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 14w; Wave 4 lasted 9w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-10-10", "price": 14.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 51.65731769505354, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 75, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 7.945, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.570275722932074, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 9.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.229074889867825, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 7.71, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.884498480243153, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.885, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.2697795071335904, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 9.87, "confirmation": 7.71, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 36 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 14.792937399679023, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 14.87; Wave 2 9.87.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 7.95; Wave 3 7.71.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 7.95; Wave 4 7.88.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.31\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 8% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 14w; Wave 4 lasted 9w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-10-10", "price": 14.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 51.65731769505354, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 75, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 7.945, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.570275722932074, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 9.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.229074889867825, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 7.71, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.884498480243153, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.885, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.2697795071335904, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 9.87, "confirmation": 7.71, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 36 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 14.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 9.245585874799389, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11.74; Wave 2 9.87.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 7.95; Wave 3 7.71.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 7.95; Wave 4 7.88.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.57\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 8% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 14w; Wave 4 lasted 9w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 72, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 11.74, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.870029097963139, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 75, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 7.945, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.325383304940374, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 9.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.229074889867825, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 7.71, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.884498480243153, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.885, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.2697795071335904, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 9.87, "confirmation": 7.71, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 55 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 9.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 6.471910112359572, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.41; Wave 2 7.88.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 95, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 7.41, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.924012158054705, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 8.055, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.704453441295541, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.885, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.1104903786468023, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 7.41, "confirmation": 8.055, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 4, "changes": 6, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 72, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "labels": [ { "index": 72, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 11.74, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.870029097963139, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 75, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 7.945, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.325383304940374, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 9.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.229074889867825, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 7.71, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.884498480243153, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.885, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.2697795071335904, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -9.348716804356595, "fair_value_gap": -27.432101387800095, "market_activity": -32.266647, "market_dynamics": -0.110971, "relative_strength": -23.858347, "roc30": -29.155435759209354, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 4 crest. Price is 9.3% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.6381620931716634 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -18.961973278520045 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -0.7551919446192636 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -45.80756013745705 } ], "range": { "high_52": 15.4, "low_52": 7.17, "position_52": 8.687727825030375, "drawdown": -48.798701298701296 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 32.286703369774756, "average_weekly_range": 3.566213109167505, "active_drawdown": -46.97377269670478 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 92, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 7.71, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.884498480243153, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 89, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 9.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.229074889867825, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 89, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 9.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.229074889867825, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 8.698167, "fair_value": 10.865686, "trend_gap": -9.348716804356595, "fair_value_gap": -27.432101387800095 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 92, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 7.71, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.884498480243153, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.885, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.2697795071335904, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 2.2697795071335904, "weeks": 9, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "9.3% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-23.9", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-32.3", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-29.2", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 2, "negative": 5, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 79, "history_score": 39, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 102, "confirmed_pivots": 10 }, "volume_ratio": 182.7234294422416, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 31, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 30, "positive_rate": 46.7, "median_return": -0.34, "bar_width": 1.7000000000000002, "average_return": -3.42, "best_return": 13.54, "worst_return": -30.75 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 24, "positive_rate": 16.7, "median_return": -14.22, "bar_width": 71.10000000000001, "average_return": -11.03, "best_return": 22.47, "worst_return": -25.6 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 11, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -29.6, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -26.59, "best_return": -8.15, "worst_return": -34.37 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 7.71, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 9.87; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 427, "positive_rate": 42.9, "median_return": -1.12, "average_return": 0.54, "median_excess_return": -0.2, "excess_observations": 427, "p10": -8.23, "p90": 11.24 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 159, "positive_rate": 46.5, "median_return": -1.58, "average_return": 0.27, "median_excess_return": -0.04, "excess_observations": 159, "p10": -14.52, "p90": 16.37 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 88, "positive_rate": 44.3, "median_return": -1.05, "average_return": 0.47, "median_excess_return": -1.19, "excess_observations": 88, "p10": -20.39, "p90": 23.91 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 25.174381737476214, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 14, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 9.3% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 9% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 96, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-28", "2025-04-04", "2025-04-11", "2025-04-18", "2025-04-25", "2025-05-02", "2025-05-09", "2025-05-16", "2025-05-23", "2025-05-30", "2025-06-06", "2025-06-13", "2025-06-20", "2025-06-27", "2025-07-04", "2025-07-11", "2025-07-18", "2025-07-25", "2025-08-01", "2025-08-08", "2025-08-15", "2025-08-22", "2025-08-29", "2025-09-05", "2025-09-12", "2025-09-19", "2025-09-26", "2025-10-03", "2025-10-10", 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