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"2025-08-15", "value": 1.8064071026056858 }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "value": 1.7426253731039572 }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "value": 1.6078721355023544 }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "value": 1.482734984471847 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "value": 1.4584141591255935 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "value": 1.4445749958836476 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": 1.3812425925975214 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": 1.4048193287441737 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": 1.28122350376066 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": 1.1315395314799144 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": 1.2009601784494732 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": 1.2630811666016382 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": 1.0843037352875207 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": 1.0303387821151175 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": 0.8109299874982984 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": 0.8907380836843021 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 0.9762918088029661 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 0.9469957218275241 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 0.9149864141940279 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 0.9293963001407772 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 0.889630946667686 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 0.9219940412399139 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 0.9357018445262606 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.9030710056975404 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.8660627611673648 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.8052752279133228 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.7195706029491733 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.6785087510438128 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.6381194543959887 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.5033031849560273 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.3272240416500294 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.1480591064901672 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.062358075354978504 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.046905429459180026 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.19265437385021214 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.5914570003849461 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.8240295280548029 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.9446522629118415 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.1569121524125312 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.3001810539594063 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.3981786834685772 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.4864708524776284 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.42408066897206 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.2984843784257454 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.2116788945811625 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.0398447171889824 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.9803538043945647 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.9554217218353153 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.8535474803378589 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.7438886568495129 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 18.55; Wave B 23.17.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.54; C length 3.81.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.58\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 44, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 18.55072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.4571109041822785, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 25.095375, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.279789679322434, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 23.17318, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.65955878324194, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 26.98, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.427697881775405, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 26.98, "confirmation": 23.17318, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 71 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 18.55; Wave 2 23.17.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 25.10; Wave 3 26.98.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 29% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.58\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 44, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 18.55072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.4571109041822785, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 25.095375, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.279789679322434, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 23.17318, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.65955878324194, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 26.98, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.427697881775405, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 23.17318, "confirmation": 26.98, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 29 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 18.55; Wave B 23.17.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.54; C length 3.81.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.58\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 44, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 18.55072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.4571109041822785, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 25.095375, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.279789679322434, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 23.17318, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.65955878324194, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 26.98, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.427697881775405, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 26.98, "confirmation": 23.17318, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 71 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 80, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 44, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 18.55072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.4571109041822785, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 25.095375, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.279789679322434, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 23.17318, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.65955878324194, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 26.98, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.427697881775405, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 5.074858631864584, "fair_value_gap": 19.221949954089823, "market_activity": 36.182698, "market_dynamics": 0.920476, "relative_strength": 4.557066, "roc30": 8.45902835584515, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 5.1% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.9843957399556706 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 4.482508745085302 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 7.9823490083173985 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 17.58730377891077 } ], "range": { "high_52": 27.468, "low_52": 22.431211, "position_52": 90.31128760803759, "drawdown": -1.7766127857870961 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 12.2369231951324, "average_weekly_range": 1.6243391254258852, "active_drawdown": -1.7766127857870961 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 95, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 23.17318, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.65955878324194, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 25.676932, "fair_value": 22.630061, "trend_gap": 5.074858631864584, "fair_value_gap": 19.221949954089823 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 95, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 23.17318, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.65955878324194, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 26.98, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.427697881775405, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 16.427697881775405, "weeks": 17, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "5.1% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+4.6", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+36.2", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.9", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+8.5", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 73, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 113, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 234.29874991643825, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 40, "positive_rate": 65.0, "median_return": 0.63, "bar_width": 3.15, "average_return": 0.54, "best_return": 8.25, "worst_return": -6.65 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 33, "positive_rate": 81.8, "median_return": 3.63, "bar_width": 18.15, "average_return": 3.59, "best_return": 11.2, "worst_return": -6.84 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 88.0, "median_return": 7.86, "bar_width": 39.300000000000004, "average_return": 6.94, "best_return": 14.24, "worst_return": -2.87 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 23.17, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 26.98; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 490, "positive_rate": 54.7, "median_return": 0.47, "average_return": 0.51, "median_excess_return": -0.13, "excess_observations": 490, "p10": -3.81, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 1.4, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -5.45, "p90": 9.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 2.41, "average_return": 3.48, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -8.06, "p90": 16.04 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": "2026-08-12", "earnings_weeks": 3, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [ "Earnings are due in about 3 weeks." ], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 40, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 5.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 9, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 61, "explanation": "Price is 90% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Earnings are about 3 week(s) away." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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