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Wave 2 45.92.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 49.35; Wave 3 55.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.83\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 55, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 37.869999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.514673013875237, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 49.345001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.301035920280864, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 45.919998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.9409320713156, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 55.459999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.77526440658818, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 45.919998, "confirmation": 55.459999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 62 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 68, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 37.87; Wave B 45.92.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 11.48; C length 9.54.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.83\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 55, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 37.869999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.514673013875237, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 49.345001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.301035920280864, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 45.919998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.9409320713156, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 55.459999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.77526440658818, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 55.459999, "confirmation": 45.919998, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 37.87; Wave 2 45.92.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 49.35; Wave 3 55.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.83\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 55, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 37.869999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.514673013875237, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 49.345001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.301035920280864, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 45.919998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.9409320713156, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 55.459999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.77526440658818, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 45.919998, "confirmation": 55.459999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 62 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 55, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 37.869999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.514673013875237, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 49.345001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.301035920280864, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 45.919998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.9409320713156, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 55.459999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.77526440658818, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 10.408440365087646, "fair_value_gap": 21.37477175206763, "market_activity": 78.353283, "market_dynamics": 1.347069, "relative_strength": 2.475144, "roc30": 15.217619828300396, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 10.4% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 2.932438698358605 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 9.604745438922754 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 16.831678600554486 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 21.8901076923077 } ], "range": { "high_52": 55.68, "low_52": 44.259998, "position_52": 98.07354674718974, "drawdown": -0.39511673850574053 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 9.966296135882182, "average_weekly_range": 0.8082467007416052, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 45.919998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.9409320713156, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 45.919998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.9409320713156, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 50.231666, "fair_value": 45.693185, "trend_gap": 10.408440365087646, "fair_value_gap": 21.37477175206763 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 45.919998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.9409320713156, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 123, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 55.459999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.77526440658818, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 20.77526440658818, "weeks": 18, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "10.4% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+2.5", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+78.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+15.2", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 1, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 75, "history_score": 48, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 124, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 125.29173033314194, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 38, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 37, "positive_rate": 73.0, "median_return": 1.24, "bar_width": 6.2, "average_return": 1.12, "best_return": 4.46, "worst_return": -3.76 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 28, "positive_rate": 78.6, "median_return": 2.79, "bar_width": 13.95, "average_return": 2.78, "best_return": 8.39, "worst_return": -4.18 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 88.0, "median_return": 6.29, "bar_width": 31.45, "average_return": 6.63, "best_return": 12.87, "worst_return": -0.44 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 55.46, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 45.92; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 696, "positive_rate": 62.4, "median_return": 0.89, "average_return": 0.74, "median_excess_return": 0.03, "excess_observations": 696, "p10": -6.54, "p90": 6.54 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 244, "positive_rate": 71.3, "median_return": 3.44, "average_return": 3.37, "median_excess_return": 1.44, "excess_observations": 244, "p10": -11.5, "p90": 17.53 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 133, "positive_rate": 76.7, "median_return": 5.49, "average_return": 4.99, "median_excess_return": 3.54, "excess_observations": 133, "p10": -16.93, "p90": 26.25 } ], "benchmark": "^SSMI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 17.201588842437598, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 45, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 7, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 34, "explanation": "Price is 10.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 14, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 92, "explanation": "Price is 98% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 98% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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