{ "ticker": { "symbol": "INDU", "name": "Amundi STOXX Europe 600 Industrials UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "GER" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 213.949997, "latest_open": 210.75, "latest_high": 216.050003, "latest_low": 209.649994, "bar_count": 111, "analysis_bar_count": 111, "reversal_percent": 5.198103674571069, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 39, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 167.079102, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 41, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 148.901657, "kind": "low", "move_percent": 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0.21731217604708666 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.5715324416017254 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.5902517760499715 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.5836973374580636 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.6185479041182318 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.5168226964400122 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.5683010326180316 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.7151725013754171 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.7050206752327828 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.6509169393455992 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.7513092256624079 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.7305548199699252 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.9186702753142297 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.8527164931999439 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.7233950895996285 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.6871432980494783 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.783162632566916 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.9831592978618328 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 179.70; Wave 2 194.12.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 205.20; Wave 3 213.95.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 43% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.78\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 91, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 179.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.104451453997322, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 205.199997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.190317432225667, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 194.119995, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.399611190052799, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 213.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.215332016673507, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 194.119995, "confirmation": 213.949997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 65, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 179.70; Wave B 194.12.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 25.50; C length 19.83.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.78\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 91, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 179.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.104451453997322, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 205.199997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.190317432225667, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 194.119995, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.399611190052799, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 213.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.215332016673507, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 213.949997, "confirmation": 194.119995, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 18 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 148.90; Wave B 179.70.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 57.90; C length 34.25.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.59\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 41, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 148.901657, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.879544348999438, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 86, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 206.800003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 38.88361430390261, "weeks": 45, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 179.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.104451453997322, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 213.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.059544002107025, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 213.949997, "confirmation": 179.699997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 45 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.316965879313711, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 148.90; Wave B 179.70.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 57.90; C length 34.25.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.59\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 41, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 148.901657, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.879544348999438, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 86, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 206.800003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 38.88361430390261, "weeks": 45, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 179.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.104451453997322, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 213.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.059544002107025, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 213.949997, "confirmation": 179.699997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 45 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.198103674571069, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 179.70; Wave 2 194.12.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 205.20; Wave 3 213.95.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 43% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.78\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 91, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 179.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.104451453997322, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 205.199997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.190317432225667, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 194.119995, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.399611190052799, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 213.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.215332016673507, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 194.119995, "confirmation": 213.949997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.638672572199748, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 194.12; Wave 2 201.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 211.90; Wave 3 213.95.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 60% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.71\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 98, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 194.119995, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.399611190052799, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 211.899994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.159282638555602, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 201.300003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.002355497943048, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 213.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.284149931185044, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 201.300003, "confirmation": 213.949997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 4, "changes": 6, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 91, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 179.699997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.104451453997322, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 205.199997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.190317432225667, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 194.119995, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.399611190052799, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 213.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.215332016673507, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 7.153229681526165, "fair_value_gap": 21.287335234100624, "market_activity": 31.244815, "market_dynamics": 0.464321, "relative_strength": 2.106552, "roc30": 7.135703662529349, "hurst_alignment": 100, "hurst_risk": 0 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 7.2% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 5.264451168511683 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 7.275368458931325 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 6.708227930174561 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 17.573524545530233 } ], "range": { "high_52": 216.050003, "low_52": 176.559998, "position_52": 94.68218350440824, "drawdown": -0.9719999865031279 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 21.844232411103327, "average_weekly_range": 2.2556018886468436, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 98, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 194.119995, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.399611190052799, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 98, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 194.119995, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.399611190052799, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 199.667334, "fair_value": 176.399289, "trend_gap": 7.153229681526165, "fair_value_gap": 21.287335234100624 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 98, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 194.119995, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.399611190052799, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 213.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.215332016673507, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 10.215332016673507, "weeks": 12, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "7.2% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+2.1", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+31.2", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+7.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 1, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 111, "confirmed_pivots": 8 }, "volume_ratio": 117.90727350063803, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 37, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 36, "positive_rate": 61.1, "median_return": 0.41, "bar_width": 2.05, "average_return": -0.02, "best_return": 6.91, "worst_return": -13.04 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 28, "positive_rate": 53.6, "median_return": 0.91, "bar_width": 4.55, "average_return": 1.25, "best_return": 9.67, "worst_return": -4.36 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 19, "positive_rate": 84.2, "median_return": 5.16, "bar_width": 25.8, "average_return": 5.12, "best_return": 14.82, "worst_return": -2.9 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 213.95, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 194.12; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 45, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 500, "positive_rate": 54.0, "median_return": 0.4, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.27, "excess_observations": 500, "p10": -3.84, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.6, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.54, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -6.45, "p90": 9.17 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 92, "positive_rate": 68.5, "median_return": 2.89, "average_return": 3.93, "median_excess_return": -0.91, "excess_observations": 92, "p10": -7.88, "p90": 15.96 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 9.268521747163197, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 39, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 2, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 9, "explanation": "Price is 7.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 12, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 79, "explanation": "Price is 95% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 96, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 95% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-28", "2025-04-04", "2025-04-11", "2025-04-18", "2025-04-25", "2025-05-02", "2025-05-09", "2025-05-16", "2025-05-23", "2025-05-30", "2025-06-06", "2025-06-13", "2025-06-20", "2025-06-27", "2025-07-04", "2025-07-11", "2025-07-18", "2025-07-25", "2025-08-01", "2025-08-08", 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