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        "label": "10w",
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  "structure": {
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      "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave2",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 63,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 1,934.84; Wave 2 1,725.00.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
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          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 68% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
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      ],
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          "weeks": 12,
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      "invalidation": 1934.844727,
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      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 12
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4",
        "degree": "strategic",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave4",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 85,
        "rules": [
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            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 2,689.39; Wave 2 2,399.61.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 1,829.71; Wave 3 1,274.90.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
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            "hard": true
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            "detail": "Retraced 66% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.31\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 3.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 12w; Wave 4 lasted 12w.",
            "hard": false
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            "label": "3"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 1725.0,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 35.3044939629888,
            "weeks": 12,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "4"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 1829.705444,
        "confirmation": 1274.902222,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 76
      },
      {
        "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "strategic",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 2,399.61; Wave 2 1,725.00.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 243,
            "date": "2026-02-27",
            "price": 2399.61377,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 31.1475449706319,
            "weeks": 12,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 263,
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "price": 1274.902222,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -46.870524001035385,
            "weeks": 20,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 1725.0,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 35.3044939629888,
            "weeks": 12,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 2399.61377,
        "confirmation": 1274.902222,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 12
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 20.51723763098346,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 85,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 2,689.39; Wave 2 2,399.61.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 1,829.71; Wave 3 1,274.90.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 1,829.71; Wave 4 1,725.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 66% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.31\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 12w; Wave 4 lasted 12w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 222,
              "date": "2025-10-03",
              "price": 2689.392822,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 258.7929618096785,
              "weeks": 38,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 231,
              "date": "2025-12-05",
              "price": 1829.705444,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -31.965853815311476,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 243,
              "date": "2026-02-27",
              "price": 2399.61377,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 31.1475449706319,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 263,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 1274.902222,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -46.870524001035385,
              "weeks": 20,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 1725.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 35.3044939629888,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 1829.705444,
          "confirmation": 1274.902222,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 76
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 20.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 12.823273519364662,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 1,934.84; Wave 2 1,725.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 68% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 250,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 1934.844727,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 17.99732565987735,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 263,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 1274.902222,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -34.10829281496137,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 1725.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 35.3044939629888,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 1934.844727,
          "confirmation": 1274.902222,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 12
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 12.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 8.976291463555263,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 1,274.90; Wave 2 1,725.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 263,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 1274.902222,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -34.10829281496137,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 1900.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 49.03103682879926,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 1725.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -9.210526315789474,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 1274.902222,
          "confirmation": 1900.0,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 9.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 100,
      "changes": 0,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "cycle_rollover",
    "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
    "direction": "bearish",
    "confidence": 60,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 250,
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "price": 1934.844727,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 17.99732565987735,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 263,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 1274.902222,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -34.10829281496137,
        "weeks": 13,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 1725.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 35.3044939629888,
        "weeks": 12,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 2.6726705612896597,
      "fair_value_gap": 28.82345994066633,
      "market_activity": 14.219712,
      "market_dynamics": 1.025223,
      "relative_strength": -10.066276,
      "roc30": -11.52422732929332,
      "hurst_alignment": 71,
      "hurst_risk": 38
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 2.7% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -8.24468085106383
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 24.100719424460433
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -7.250626116074056
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": -35.61979524766004
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 2839.359145,
      "low_52": 1249.904139,
      "position_52": 29.890488199198515,
      "drawdown": -39.24685424041346
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 41.46956871260709,
      "average_weekly_range": 7.638635496337463,
      "active_drawdown": -35.85912828021967
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 263,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 1274.902222,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -34.10829281496137,
        "weeks": 13,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 250,
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "price": 1934.844727,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 17.99732565987735,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 250,
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "price": 1934.844727,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 17.99732565987735,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 1680.096554,
      "fair_value": 1339.041818,
      "trend_gap": 2.6726705612896597,
      "fair_value_gap": 28.82345994066633
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 263,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 1274.902222,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -34.10829281496137,
        "weeks": 13,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 1725.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 35.3044939629888,
        "weeks": 12,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 35.3044939629888,
      "weeks": 12,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "2.7% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Cresting",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Trough Cluster",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-10.1",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+14.2",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+1.0",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-11.5",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 4,
      "negative": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bearish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 10
    },
    "volume_ratio": 224.88611843682568,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 29,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 28,
          "positive_rate": 53.6,
          "median_return": 4.36,
          "bar_width": 21.8,
          "average_return": 2.81,
          "best_return": 27.09,
          "worst_return": -12.77
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 25,
          "positive_rate": 56.0,
          "median_return": 4.11,
          "bar_width": 20.55,
          "average_return": 10.29,
          "best_return": 66.14,
          "worst_return": -14.66
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 25,
          "positive_rate": 32.0,
          "median_return": -4.01,
          "bar_width": 20.049999999999997,
          "average_return": 10.21,
          "best_return": 194.05,
          "worst_return": -19.87
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is trough cluster.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 1,274.90, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 1934.84; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 16,
      "constructive_percent": 67,
      "rising_cycle_count": 4,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 17,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 171,
          "positive_rate": 42.1,
          "median_return": -2.68,
          "average_return": -0.9,
          "median_excess_return": -2.41,
          "excess_observations": 171,
          "p10": -12.96,
          "p90": 12.04
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 101,
          "positive_rate": 47.5,
          "median_return": -1.4,
          "average_return": 0.69,
          "median_excess_return": -2.36,
          "excess_observations": 101,
          "p10": -18.08,
          "p90": 17.39
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 84,
          "positive_rate": 53.6,
          "median_return": 1.94,
          "average_return": 3.17,
          "median_excess_return": -4.45,
          "excess_observations": 84,
          "p10": -23.32,
          "p90": 36.73
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^FTSE",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": "2026-11-09",
      "earnings_weeks": 5,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "bullish",
      "options_conviction": 22.27,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 12.164911710144922,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [
        "Stored options pressure is bullish with 22/100 conviction."
      ],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 21,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 2.7% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 30% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 6,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 38,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 38/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Earnings are about 5 week(s) away."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
    "dates": [
      "2023-10-06",
      "2023-10-13",
      "2023-10-20",
      "2023-10-27",
      "2023-11-03",
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      "2023-11-17",
      "2023-11-24",
      "2023-12-01",
      "2023-12-08",
      "2023-12-15",
      "2023-12-22",
      "2023-12-29",
      "2024-01-05",
      "2024-01-12",
      "2024-01-19",
      "2024-01-26",
      "2024-02-02",
      "2024-02-09",
      "2024-02-16",
      "2024-03-01",
      "2024-03-08",
      "2024-03-15",
      "2024-03-22",
      "2024-03-29",
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      "2024-04-19",
      "2024-04-26",
      "2024-05-03",
      "2024-05-10",
      "2024-05-17",
      "2024-05-24",
      "2024-05-31",
      "2024-06-07",
      "2024-06-14",
      "2024-06-21",
      "2024-06-28",
      "2024-07-05",
      "2024-07-12",
      "2024-07-19",
      "2024-07-26",
      "2024-08-02",
      "2024-08-09",
      "2024-08-16",
      "2024-08-23",
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      "2024-10-25",
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      "2024-12-06",
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      "2024-12-20",
      "2024-12-27",
      "2025-01-03",
      "2025-01-10",
      "2025-01-17",
      "2025-01-24",
      "2025-01-31",
      "2025-02-07",
      "2025-02-14",
      "2025-02-21",
      "2025-02-28",
      "2025-03-07",
      "2025-03-14",
      "2025-03-21",
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