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    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
    "cycles": [
      {
        "period": 10,
        "label": "10w",
        "estimated_period": 8,
        "period_range": [
          5,
          11
        ],
        "period_strength": 0,
        "timing_available": false,
        "timing_note": "No measurable positive repeat",
        "history_cycles": 22.8,
        "phase": "cresting",
        "value": 2.1372692375055324,
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        "amplitude": 3.812,
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        "weeks_since_crest": 2,
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        "trough_window": null,
        "crest_window": null,
        "fld": {
          "value": 2851.0,
          "state": "crossed up",
          "weeks_since_cross": 10,
          "displacement": 4,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": true,
          "value": 2308.5,
          "state": "price above",
          "slope": 23.5,
          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
        },
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          131,
          137,
          149,
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            "date": "2023-05-05",
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            "date": "2023-05-19",
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      {
        "period": 20,
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          21
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        "period_strength": 0,
        "timing_available": false,
        "timing_note": "No measurable positive repeat",
        "history_cycles": 12.1,
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        "fld": {
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          "state": "crossed up",
          "weeks_since_cross": 6,
          "displacement": 8,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": true,
          "value": 2308.5,
          "state": "price above",
          "slope": 23.5,
          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
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      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-31",
        "value": 1.2283348908896432
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-07",
        "value": 1.1195249389749355
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-14",
        "value": 0.9458210765977099
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-21",
        "value": 0.7566417379266399
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-28",
        "value": 0.7300442757220886
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-05",
        "value": 0.7769233981016239
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-12",
        "value": 1.0084146404725391
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-19",
        "value": 1.0725547604631644
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-26",
        "value": 1.091198460403733
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-02",
        "value": 1.1047701379101962
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "value": 1.1286349212560884
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-16",
        "value": 1.0659480923034113
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "value": 0.8873120652575281
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "value": 0.9194186756822227
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "value": 0.8797502323555595
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "value": 0.8326463740525567
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-20",
        "value": 0.8750383615524395
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "value": 0.8231103883839515
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "value": 0.9693598180399245
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "value": 0.9443604605738241
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": 0.916372877339134
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "value": 1.3823534537594975
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "value": 1.466989590587041
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "value": 1.5258557679600586
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "value": 1.4086835962515716
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "value": 1.152224321204283
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "value": 1.023966484119612
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": 0.7465958472212189
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "value": 0.6176544494487395
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": 0.6629882964390273
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": 0.8134692277635267
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": 1.1595651321464484
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 1.346707273647626
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": 1.0199531620938453
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": 0.808469505767622
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": 0.8117443303071876
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": 0.6352718241903795
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": 0.6990712515299112
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": 0.7295988217935585
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": 0.8186176626656724
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": 0.8105413635475478
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "value": 1.2828300405770843
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-21",
        "value": 1.5599957591254427
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "value": 1.7011958079676384
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "value": 1.7801611586545496
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-11",
        "value": 1.8172200617752823
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "value": 1.7135131985538512
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "value": 1.6729206617433947
      }
    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bullish-wave3",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave3",
      "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
      "direction": "bullish",
      "score": 74,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 1,869.00; Wave 2 2,044.00.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 2,320.00; Wave 3 3,036.00.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 61% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.20\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 161,
          "date": "2026-05-08",
          "price": 1869.0,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -12.335834896810507,
          "weeks": 6,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 166,
          "date": "2026-06-12",
          "price": 2320.0,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 24.13055109684323,
          "weeks": 5,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 167,
          "date": "2026-06-19",
          "price": 2044.0,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -11.89655172413793,
          "weeks": 1,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 181,
          "date": "2026-09-25",
          "price": 3036.0,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 48.53228962818004,
          "weeks": 14,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "3"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 2044.0,
      "confirmation": 3036.0,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 44
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-abc",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 1,869.00; Wave B 2,044.00.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 451.00; C length 992.00.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave C is 2.20\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 161,
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "price": 1869.0,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -12.335834896810507,
            "weeks": 6,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 166,
            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "price": 2320.0,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 24.13055109684323,
            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 167,
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "price": 2044.0,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -11.89655172413793,
            "weeks": 1,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 181,
            "date": "2026-09-25",
            "price": 3036.0,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 48.53228962818004,
            "weeks": 14,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 3036.0,
        "confirmation": 2044.0,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 12
      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave3",
        "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 74,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 1,869.00; Wave 2 2,044.00.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 2,320.00; Wave 3 3,036.00.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 61% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.20\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 161,
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "price": 1869.0,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -12.335834896810507,
            "weeks": 6,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 166,
            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "price": 2320.0,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 24.13055109684323,
            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 167,
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "price": 2044.0,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -11.89655172413793,
            "weeks": 1,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 181,
            "date": "2026-09-25",
            "price": 3036.0,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 48.53228962818004,
            "weeks": 14,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "3"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 2044.0,
        "confirmation": 3036.0,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 44
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 16.821428836417127,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 16.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 10.513393022760704,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bullish-wave3",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave3",
          "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 74,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 1,869.00; Wave 2 2,044.00.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 2,320.00; Wave 3 3,036.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 61% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.20\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 161,
              "date": "2026-05-08",
              "price": 1869.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -12.335834896810507,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 166,
              "date": "2026-06-12",
              "price": 2320.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 24.13055109684323,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 167,
              "date": "2026-06-19",
              "price": 2044.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -11.89655172413793,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 181,
              "date": "2026-09-25",
              "price": 3036.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 48.53228962818004,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "3"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 2044.0,
          "confirmation": 3036.0,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 44
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 10.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 7.359375115932492,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave3",
          "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 74,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 1,869.00; Wave 2 2,044.00.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 2,320.00; Wave 3 3,036.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 61% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.20\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 161,
              "date": "2026-05-08",
              "price": 1869.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -12.335834896810507,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 166,
              "date": "2026-06-12",
              "price": 2320.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 24.13055109684323,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 167,
              "date": "2026-06-19",
              "price": 2044.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -11.89655172413793,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 181,
              "date": "2026-09-25",
              "price": 3036.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 48.53228962818004,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "3"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 2044.0,
          "confirmation": 3036.0,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 44
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 7.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 36,
      "changes": 4,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Low"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave3_continuation",
    "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 90,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 161,
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "price": 1869.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -12.335834896810507,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 166,
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "price": 2320.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 24.13055109684323,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 167,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 2044.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -11.89655172413793,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 181,
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "price": 3036.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 48.53228962818004,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "3"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Price is above the 30-week trend line.",
      "Market Activity is positive.",
      "Market Dynamics supports the setup.",
      "30-week price rate of change is positive.",
      "Relative Strength is positive."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 35.17049158286135,
      "fair_value_gap": 195.2155345961558,
      "market_activity": 69.756304,
      "market_dynamics": 1.649915,
      "relative_strength": 53.941502,
      "roc30": 85.7836567564991,
      "hurst_alignment": 50,
      "hurst_risk": 50
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 35.2% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 7.052186177715091
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 45.68138195777351
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 42.4015009380863
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 126.23741049077255
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 3084.0,
      "low_52": 1248.72925,
      "position_52": 97.38458208414208,
      "drawdown": -1.556420233463035
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 42.410363628357956,
      "average_weekly_range": 2.511260135967846,
      "active_drawdown": 0.0
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 167,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 2044.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -11.89655172413793,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": {
        "index": 167,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 2044.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -11.89655172413793,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
      "trend": 2246.052348,
      "fair_value": 1028.401166,
      "trend_gap": 35.17049158286135,
      "fair_value_gap": 195.2155345961558
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 167,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 2044.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -11.89655172413793,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 181,
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "price": 3036.0,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 48.53228962818004,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 48.53228962818004,
      "weeks": 14,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "35.2% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+53.9",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+69.8",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+1.6",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+85.8",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 6,
      "negative": 0,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 86,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 90,
      "history_score": 70,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 182,
      "confirmed_pivots": 16
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    "volume_ratio": 374.9222797927461,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 76,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 75,
          "positive_rate": 58.7,
          "median_return": 2.08,
          "bar_width": 10.4,
          "average_return": 11.64,
          "best_return": 190.81,
          "worst_return": -13.91
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 71,
          "positive_rate": 77.5,
          "median_return": 13.56,
          "bar_width": 67.8,
          "average_return": 30.23,
          "best_return": 220.94,
          "worst_return": -21.08
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 58,
          "positive_rate": 91.4,
          "median_return": 36.69,
          "bar_width": 100.0,
          "average_return": 72.42,
          "best_return": 240.26,
          "worst_return": -4.65
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      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close above 3,036.00, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 2044.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 18,
      "constructive_percent": 75,
      "rising_cycle_count": 1,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 4,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 895,
          "positive_rate": 51.8,
          "median_return": 0.51,
          "average_return": 1.47,
          "median_excess_return": 0.31,
          "excess_observations": 873,
          "p10": -7.59,
          "p90": 10.68
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 311,
          "positive_rate": 56.9,
          "median_return": 2.7,
          "average_return": 5.11,
          "median_excess_return": 1.13,
          "excess_observations": 303,
          "p10": -10.16,
          "p90": 22.2
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        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 170,
          "positive_rate": 68.2,
          "median_return": 8.05,
          "average_return": 11.82,
          "median_excess_return": 3.05,
          "excess_observations": 166,
          "p10": -11.81,
          "p90": 40.31
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      ],
      "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 32.674571805006586,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 47,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 20,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Price is 35.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 13,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 90,
          "explanation": "Price is 97% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 8,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 6,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 64,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Price is 35.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.",
        "Price is 97% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
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