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"2025-08-22", "value": 0.9832341232527628 }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "value": 1.090206974869425 }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "value": 1.1732748335905363 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "value": 1.208403358489901 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "value": 1.22396348712256 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": 1.2458448754370095 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": 1.2265817196000854 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": 1.0473533308263085 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": 0.945502384190004 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": 0.9351145918488208 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": 0.8813343884867695 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": 0.8793750876794026 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": 0.8597144235181347 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": 0.8049024432222329 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": 0.8356324859266527 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 0.8953216057391958 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 1.0091832941507113 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 1.0733144704560593 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 1.1302094490885721 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 1.110406207313993 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 1.1953530285946483 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 1.288727636165274 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 1.3316144716177034 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 1.3735902773557727 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 1.55795595274678 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 1.6878842168440011 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 1.7817266266286371 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 1.7740588376064341 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 1.6069301155888578 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 1.3787004447550828 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 1.135133373632387 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.9573727710761317 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.911414994480785 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 1.0059251814422943 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 1.146308510487355 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 1.2222387133931092 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.2584717334371778 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.2327274553432779 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.115950085551831 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.0676086137097742 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.000642358714624 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.9438235231329241 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.9640654862454564 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.9332520434779314 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.9788460395061869 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.0227975027280574 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.025779665978362 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.118075930563062 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.1638881192638493 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.1916035664274813 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 16.26; Wave 2 20.95.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 22.90; Wave 3 23.43.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 29% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.37\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 86, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 16.26072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.43481637786464, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 132, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 22.898907, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 40.823450622112695, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 136, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 20.949856, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.51154598776265, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.43, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.838477553258596, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 20.949856, "confirmation": 23.43, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 26 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 16.26; Wave B 20.95.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.64; C length 2.48.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.37\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 86, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 16.26072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.43481637786464, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 132, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 22.898907, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 40.823450622112695, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 136, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 20.949856, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.51154598776265, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.43, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.838477553258596, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 23.43, "confirmation": 20.949856, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 16 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 20.95; Wave 2 21.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 22.72; Wave 3 23.43.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 46% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.87\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 136, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 20.949856, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.51154598776265, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 140, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 22.715421, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.427575826774172, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 144, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 21.899419, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.5922820888945775, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.43, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.989139757543329, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 21.899419, "confirmation": 23.43, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 59 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 16.26; Wave 2 20.95.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 22.90; Wave 3 23.43.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 29% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.37\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 86, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 16.26072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.013090903312277, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 132, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 22.898907, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 40.823450622112695, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 136, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 20.949856, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.51154598776265, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.43, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.838477553258596, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 20.949856, "confirmation": 23.43, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 16.26; Wave 2 20.95.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 22.90; Wave 3 23.43.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 29% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.37\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 86, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 16.26072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.43481637786464, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 132, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 22.898907, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 40.823450622112695, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 136, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 20.949856, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.51154598776265, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.43, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.838477553258596, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 20.949856, "confirmation": 23.43, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 26 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 20.95; Wave 2 21.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 22.72; Wave 3 23.43.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 46% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.87\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 136, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 20.949856, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.51154598776265, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 140, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 22.715421, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.427575826774172, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 144, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 21.899419, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.5922820888945775, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.43, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.989139757543329, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 21.899419, "confirmation": 23.43, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 59 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 86, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 16.26072, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.43481637786464, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 132, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 22.898907, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 40.823450622112695, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 136, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 20.949856, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.51154598776265, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.43, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.838477553258596, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 5.072551183965405, "fair_value_gap": 24.088324194331527, "market_activity": 54.390269, "market_dynamics": 0.920284, "relative_strength": 0.532756, "roc30": 12.706696288212047, "hurst_alignment": 100, "hurst_risk": 0 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 5.1% above its 30-week trend. 7 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.8847726271490908 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 3.5378755070837022 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 7.7758653912100675 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 23.514329006430806 } ], "range": { "high_52": 23.61, "low_52": 19.066715, "position_52": 96.03810898942066, "drawdown": -0.7623888182973304 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 13.476937865138483, "average_weekly_range": 2.5934469849508175, "active_drawdown": -0.22615829956757083 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 136, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 20.949856, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.51154598776265, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 136, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 20.949856, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.51154598776265, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 22.298878, "fair_value": 18.881712, "trend_gap": 5.072551183965405, "fair_value_gap": 24.088324194331527 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 136, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 20.949856, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.51154598776265, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.43, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.838477553258596, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 11.838477553258596, "weeks": 19, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "5.1% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.5", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+54.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.9", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+12.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 7, "negative": 0, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 100, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 86, "history_score": 60, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 156, "confirmed_pivots": 10 }, "volume_ratio": 96.34793385818435, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 46, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 45, "positive_rate": 55.6, "median_return": 0.71, "bar_width": 3.55, "average_return": 0.4, "best_return": 11.28, "worst_return": -9.24 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 42, "positive_rate": 69.0, "median_return": 1.67, "bar_width": 8.35, "average_return": 0.79, "best_return": 11.02, "worst_return": -11.23 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 32, "positive_rate": 65.6, "median_return": 6.42, "bar_width": 32.1, "average_return": 2.27, "best_return": 17.1, "worst_return": -14.16 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 23.43, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 20.95; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 59, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 480, "positive_rate": 64.4, "median_return": 0.68, "average_return": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 480, "p10": -4.89, "p90": 6.14 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 167, "positive_rate": 69.5, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.26, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 167, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 12.5 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 90, "positive_rate": 67.8, "median_return": 3.24, "average_return": 2.98, "median_excess_return": -2.62, "excess_observations": 90, "p10": -11.29, "p90": 16.2 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 10.585335040546305, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 19, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 5.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 13, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 84, "explanation": "Price is 96% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 96% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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