{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "TOS",
    "name": "Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF",
    "exchange": "CBOE"
  },
  "latest_week": "2026-08-07",
  "latest_close": 29.6062,
  "latest_open": 28.32,
  "latest_high": 29.8,
  "latest_low": 28.32,
  "bar_count": 28,
  "analysis_bar_count": 28,
  "reversal_percent": 7.04236061549951,
  "model": {
    "version": "ewc-2.1.0",
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "index": 0,
      "date": "2026-01-30",
      "price": 24.9769,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": null,
      "weeks": 0,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 27,
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "price": 29.6062,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 18.534325716962474,
      "weeks": 27,
      "confirmed": false
    }
  ],
  "cycle": {
    "phase": "falling",
    "trend_bias": "bearish",
    "oscillator": 1.5855177441971664,
    "slope": -7.512877116609865,
    "dominant_period_weeks": 40,
    "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing",
    "weeks_since_turn": 27,
    "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 0,
    "series": [
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        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "value": null
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "value": null
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "value": null
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-20",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 2.860751304252069
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": 6.244612549380524
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": 8.58622117194352
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": 10.132717166636663
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": 9.098394860807032
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        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": 5.955789501433104
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": 4.146886651591817
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": 2.4425981911601773
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      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": 1.5855177441971664
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    ]
  },
  "hurst": {
    "status": "mixed",
    "phase": "falling",
    "alignment_score": 25,
    "risk_score": 75,
    "trough_alignment": 0,
    "crest_alignment": 0,
    "nearest_trough_window": 19,
    "nearest_crest_window": 13,
    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
    "cycles": [
      {
        "period": 10,
        "label": "10w",
        "estimated_period": 10,
        "period_range": [
          8,
          12
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        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "falling",
        "value": -0.35246433602919947,
        "slope": -0.061873422906926046,
        "amplitude": 4.175,
        "weeks_since_trough": 1,
        "weeks_since_crest": 7,
        "projected_trough_window": 9,
        "projected_crest_window": 3,
        "trough_window": {
          "start": 7,
          "midpoint": 9,
          "end": 11
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        "crest_window": {
          "start": 1,
          "midpoint": 3,
          "end": 5
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        "fld": {
          "value": 30.05655,
          "state": "crossed down",
          "weeks_since_cross": 3,
          "displacement": 5,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": true,
          "value": 25.987642857142855,
          "state": "price above",
          "slope": -0.3234571428571427,
          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
        },
        "trough_indexes": [
          13,
          19,
          26
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            "value": 1.18234361809338
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            "value": 1.232523234899229
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            "value": 1.1608434414985644
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            "value": 1.0533747304342422
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            "date": "2026-06-12",
            "value": 0.6448065849611054
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            "date": "2026-06-19",
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            "value": 0.583052353696993
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            "value": 0.3051711046910311
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            "date": "2026-07-10",
            "value": 0.21046195030934461
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            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "value": -0.2905909131222734
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            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "value": -0.5013576809001299
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          {
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "value": -0.7525562013679138
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          {
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "value": -0.35246433602919947
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        ]
      },
      {
        "period": 20,
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        "estimated_period": 20,
        "period_range": [
          15,
          25
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        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "falling",
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        "slope": -0.2548130308845757,
        "amplitude": 7.931,
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        "weeks_since_crest": 7,
        "projected_trough_window": 19,
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        "trough_window": {
          "start": 14,
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          "end": 24
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        "crest_window": {
          "start": 8,
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        "fld": {
          "value": 29.74495,
          "state": "crossed down",
          "weeks_since_cross": 3,
          "displacement": 10,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": false,
          "value": null,
          "state": "unavailable"
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      {
        "period": 40,
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        "estimated_period": 40,
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          30,
          50
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        "period_strength": 0,
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        "fld": {
          "value": 24.7217,
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          "displacement": 20,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": false,
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          "state": "unavailable"
        },
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      {
        "period": 80,
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          "displacement": 40,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "vtl": {
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  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
      "degree": "tactical",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave2",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 63,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 29.83; Wave 2 29.61.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 87% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
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      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 23,
          "date": "2026-07-10",
          "price": 29.8335,
          "kind": "high",
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          "weeks": 0,
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        {
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          "weeks": 3,
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          "label": "1"
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        {
          "index": 27,
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "price": 29.6062,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 5.531772312978759,
          "weeks": 1,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "2"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 29.8335,
      "confirmation": 28.0543,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 100
    },
    "alternates": [],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 11.267776984799218,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 11.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 7.04236061549951,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 7.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 4.929652430849657,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 29.83; Wave 2 29.61.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 87% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 23,
              "date": "2026-07-10",
              "price": 29.8335,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": null,
              "weeks": 0,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 26,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 28.0543,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -5.963765565555498,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 27,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 29.6062,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 5.531772312978759,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 29.8335,
          "confirmation": 28.0543,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 100
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. 0 of 3 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -0.7618951849430996
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 2.524482983114716
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 17.952988047808763
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 31.32,
      "low_52": 23.6698,
      "position_52": 77.59797129486812,
      "drawdown": -5.471902937420176
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 22.104883695609885,
      "average_weekly_range": 5.315691507205265,
      "active_drawdown": -4.035188372537763
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 0,
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "price": 24.9769,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": {
        "index": 0,
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "price": 24.9769,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": null,
      "fair_value": 27.574196,
      "trend_gap": null,
      "fair_value_gap": 7.369223022858039
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 0,
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "price": 24.9769,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 27,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 29.6062,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 18.534325716962474,
        "weeks": 27,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 18.534325716962474,
      "weeks": 27,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The 30-week trend line is not available."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "+0.0",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        }
      ],
      "positive": 0,
      "negative": 1,
      "neutral": 2,
      "observed": 3,
      "agreement": 33,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 24,
      "history_score": 11,
      "indicator_coverage": 38,
      "structure_score": 17,
      "weekly_observations": 28,
      "confirmed_pivots": 1
    },
    "volume_ratio": 28.334817111052757,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "triggered",
      "label": "Triggered",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close through 28.05, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 29.83; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 16,
      "constructive_count": 3,
      "constructive_percent": 19,
      "rising_cycle_count": 3,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 19,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "SPY",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 0.767744594037734,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 34,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 0.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 2,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 10,
          "explanation": "Price is 78% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 75,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.",
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
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      "2026-02-06",
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      "2026-02-20",
      "2026-02-27",
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      "2026-04-03",
      "2026-04-10",
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      "2026-05-01",
      "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-01-30",
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        "date": "2026-02-06",
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        "date": "2026-02-13",
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        "date": "2026-02-20",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "date": "2026-07-31",
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        "date": "2026-08-07",
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    "hurstComposite": [
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        "date": "2026-01-30",
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        "date": "2026-02-06",
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        "date": "2026-03-27",
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        "date": "2026-04-03",
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        "date": "2026-04-10",
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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