{ "ticker": { "symbol": "PBJA", "name": "PGIM S&P 500 BUFFER 20 ETF - JANUARY", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-31", "latest_close": 32.43, "latest_open": 32.35, "latest_high": 32.51, "latest_low": 32.19, "bar_count": 135, "analysis_bar_count": 135, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-31", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 0, "date": "2024-01-05", "price": 24.8601, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 134, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.43, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.449998189870517, "weeks": 134, "confirmed": false } ], "cycle": { 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0.8264948749345205 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.9445921265101213 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.047238965815573 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.106332230370164 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.152536773775405 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.2003509943853365 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.163904402249839 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.116583322308919 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.087787603415115 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.0055052111101141 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.9890854394467101 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.0062139089806301 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.9716512609017081 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.9371943142317997 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.9293574145060349 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": null, "alternates": [], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 65, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": null, "labels": [], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 2.953907284911177, "fair_value_gap": 13.155122099366316, "market_activity": 50.373152, "market_dynamics": 0.48245, "relative_strength": -3.744433, "roc30": 4.9854321786986056, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 3.0% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.3403465346534636 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 2.0665084630540043 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 4.343629343629348 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 11.04909376680033 } ], "range": { "high_52": 32.51, "low_52": 29.3344, "position_52": 97.48079103161614, "drawdown": -0.24607812980620825 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 5.25193584473756, "average_weekly_range": 0.5898146351509026, "active_drawdown": -0.05855342229344002 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 31.499533, "fair_value": 28.659772, "trend_gap": 2.953907284911177, "fair_value_gap": 13.155122099366316 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 0, "date": "2024-01-05", "price": 24.8601, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 134, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.43, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.449998189870517, "weeks": 134, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 30.449998189870517, "weeks": 134, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "3.0% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-3.7", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+50.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+5.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 67, "history_score": 52, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 17, "weekly_observations": 135, "confirmed_pivots": 1 }, "volume_ratio": 132.7231664151982, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 55, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 54, "positive_rate": 75.9, "median_return": 0.81, "bar_width": 4.050000000000001, "average_return": 0.53, "best_return": 3.89, "worst_return": -5.54 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 45, "positive_rate": 91.1, "median_return": 2.62, "bar_width": 13.100000000000001, "average_return": 2.5, "best_return": 5.67, "worst_return": -2.57 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 36, "positive_rate": 97.2, "median_return": 4.69, "bar_width": 23.450000000000003, "average_return": 4.74, "best_return": 7.8, "worst_return": -0.05 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "observing", "label": "Observing", "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.", "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.", "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.", "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 59, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 480, "positive_rate": 64.4, "median_return": 0.68, "average_return": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 480, "p10": -4.89, "p90": 6.14 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 167, "positive_rate": 69.5, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.26, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 167, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 12.5 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 90, "positive_rate": 67.8, "median_return": 3.24, "average_return": 2.98, "median_excess_return": -2.62, "excess_observations": 90, "p10": -11.29, "p90": 16.2 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": null, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 39, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 13, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 90, "explanation": "Price is 97% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 97% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", 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