{ "ticker": { "symbol": "NXTI", "name": "SIMPLIFY NEXT INTANGIBLE CORE INDEX ETF", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-24", "latest_close": 34.0771, "latest_open": 34.0406, "latest_high": 34.2892, "latest_low": 33.65, "bar_count": 119, "analysis_bar_count": 119, "reversal_percent": 5.009711415134506, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-24", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 49, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 27.335293, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 50, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.919369, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.838112691896152, "weeks": 1, 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"date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.2237933931004528 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.3110025192676669 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.3211798756925675 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.2902714801466573 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.212074142311769 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.2118177946074977 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.2435459598424 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.0696461942601554 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.8996011573519666 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 77, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.92; Wave B 29.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 8.15; C length 4.93.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.60\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 50, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.919369, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.838112691896152, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2025-12-26", "price": 33.072604, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.71846490173968, "weeks": 38, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.15, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.8605840652886, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 34.0771, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.902572898799324, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 34.0771, "confirmation": 29.15, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 66 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.92; Wave 2 29.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 33.07; Wave 3 34.08.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 48% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.60\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 50, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.919369, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.838112691896152, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2025-12-26", "price": 33.072604, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.71846490173968, "weeks": 38, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.15, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.8605840652886, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 34.0771, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.902572898799324, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 29.15, "confirmation": 34.0771, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 34 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.015538264215209, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 77, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.92; Wave B 29.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 8.15; C length 4.93.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.60\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 50, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.919369, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.838112691896152, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2025-12-26", "price": 33.072604, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.71846490173968, "weeks": 38, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.15, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.8605840652886, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 34.0771, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.902572898799324, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 34.0771, "confirmation": 29.15, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 66 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.009711415134506, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5067979905941535, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 60, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 50, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.919369, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.838112691896152, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2025-12-26", "price": 33.072604, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.71846490173968, "weeks": 38, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.15, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.8605840652886, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 34.0771, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.902572898799324, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 5.920640909224566, "fair_value_gap": 15.5862614851575, "market_activity": 54.718425, "market_dynamics": 0.837926, "relative_strength": -1.692716, "roc30": 3.037244965651943, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as bearish a/b/c rebound may be completing. Price is 5.9% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.33837533047892193 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 9.50507847310709 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 6.472291539944078 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 10.562630965654373 } ], "range": { "high_52": 35.36108, "low_52": 29.097, "position_52": 79.50249677526469, "drawdown": -3.6310542551302154 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 13.621457676710506, "average_weekly_range": 2.2183044878335263, "active_drawdown": -3.0699957902401738 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 101, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.15, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.8605840652886, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 32.172294, "fair_value": 29.481964, "trend_gap": 5.920640909224566, "fair_value_gap": 15.5862614851575 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 101, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.15, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.8605840652886, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 34.0771, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.902572898799324, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 16.902572898799324, "weeks": 17, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "5.9% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.7", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+54.7", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.8", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+3.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 2, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 46, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 119, "confirmed_pivots": 6 }, "volume_ratio": 174.16345921826604, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 40, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 39, "positive_rate": 61.5, "median_return": 1.53, "bar_width": 7.65, "average_return": 0.78, "best_return": 5.99, "worst_return": -5.67 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 32, "positive_rate": 56.2, "median_return": 0.79, "bar_width": 3.95, "average_return": 0.27, "best_return": 10.25, "worst_return": -11.86 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 31, "positive_rate": 61.3, "median_return": 3.36, "bar_width": 16.8, "average_return": 1.61, "best_return": 11.4, "worst_return": -10.21 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible strategic count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 29.15, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 34.08; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 8, "constructive_percent": 47, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 480, "positive_rate": 64.8, "median_return": 0.68, "average_return": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.46, "excess_observations": 480, "p10": -4.89, "p90": 6.14 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 167, "positive_rate": 69.5, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.25, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 167, "p10": -6.3, "p90": 12.5 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 90, "positive_rate": 67.8, "median_return": 3.24, "average_return": 2.99, "median_excess_return": -2.62, "excess_observations": 90, "p10": -11.23, "p90": 16.2 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 31, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 5.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 3, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 18, "explanation": "Price is 80% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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