{ "ticker": { "symbol": "LGQG", "name": "Amundi MSCI EMU ESG Broad Transition UCITS ETF ACC", "exchange": "GER" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-31", "latest_close": 368.899994, "latest_open": 370.350006, "latest_high": 371.899994, "latest_low": 363.049988, "bar_count": 128, "analysis_bar_count": 128, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-31", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 57, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 290.100006, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 59, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 263.649994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.117549621836277, "weeks": 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0.12494190114527126 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.4306340022380324 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.7823242418645504 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.835610411555495 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.8446507812348084 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.9205390308199333 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.9196245998375767 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.1290098828483166 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.2944516712731169 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.365175970717188 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.4680469846455568 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.5878128243734582 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.554882226636455 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.6209501093776348 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.5350790926462965 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.3848076588196094 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.3064301950427086 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.2701850626454416 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 78, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 263.65; Wave B 314.80.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 87.75; C length 54.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.62\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 59, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 263.649994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.117549621836277, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 351.399994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.28276199391835, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 314.799988, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.415482818704888, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 127, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 368.899994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.18551717352671, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 368.899994, "confirmation": 314.799988, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 18 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 263.65; Wave 2 314.80.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 351.40; Wave 3 368.90.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.62\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 59, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 263.649994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.117549621836277, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 351.399994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.28276199391835, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 314.799988, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.415482818704888, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 127, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 368.899994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.18551717352671, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 314.799988, "confirmation": 368.899994, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 8 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 263.40; Wave 2 263.65.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 296.75; Wave 3 351.40.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 296.75; Wave 4 314.80.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 33.35, 87.75, 54.10.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 351.40; Wave 5 368.90.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 99% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.63\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 8w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 38, "date": "2024-11-15", "price": 263.399994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.234760702222967, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 51, "date": "2025-02-14", "price": 296.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.661354122885822, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 59, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 263.649994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.154172198820559, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 351.399994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.28276199391835, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 314.799988, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.415482818704888, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 127, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 368.899994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.18551717352671, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 314.799988, "confirmation": 368.899994, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 74 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 78, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 263.65; Wave B 314.80.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 87.75; C length 54.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.62\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 59, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 263.649994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.117549621836277, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 351.399994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.28276199391835, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 314.799988, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.415482818704888, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 127, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 368.899994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.18551717352671, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 368.899994, "confirmation": 314.799988, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 18 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 263.40; Wave 2 263.65.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 296.75; Wave 3 351.40.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 296.75; Wave 4 314.80.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 33.35, 87.75, 54.10.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 351.40; Wave 5 368.90.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 99% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.63\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 8w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 38, "date": "2024-11-15", "price": 263.399994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.234760702222967, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 51, "date": "2025-02-14", "price": 296.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.661354122885822, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 59, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 263.649994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.154172198820559, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 351.399994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.28276199391835, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 314.799988, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.415482818704888, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 127, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 368.899994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.18551717352671, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 314.799988, "confirmation": 368.899994, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 74 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 60, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 59, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 263.649994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.117549621836277, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 351.399994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.28276199391835, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 314.799988, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.415482818704888, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 127, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 368.899994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.18551717352671, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 6.012344975406739, "fair_value_gap": 22.880219251624606, "market_activity": 46.563279, "market_dynamics": 0.76185, "relative_strength": 4.455565, "roc30": 11.047555892321874, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as bearish a/b/c rebound may be completing. Price is 6.0% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -1.6791092213504573 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 7.960193457646111 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 8.61180642329115 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 24.54421980239487 } ], "range": { "high_52": 375.399994, "low_52": 297.899994, "position_52": 91.61290322580645, "drawdown": -1.7314864421654732 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 17.22743094168189, "average_weekly_range": 2.166699932049959, "active_drawdown": -1.6791092213504573 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 314.799988, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.415482818704888, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 347.978336, "fair_value": 300.211048, "trend_gap": 6.012344975406739, "fair_value_gap": 22.880219251624606 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 314.799988, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.415482818704888, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 127, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 368.899994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.18551717352671, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 17.18551717352671, "weeks": 19, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "6.0% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+4.5", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+46.6", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.8", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+11.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 1, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 76, "history_score": 49, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 128, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 127.3208464894802, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 46, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 45, "positive_rate": 75.6, "median_return": 1.54, "bar_width": 7.7, "average_return": 1.01, "best_return": 5.31, "worst_return": -10.33 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 39, "positive_rate": 89.7, "median_return": 4.39, "bar_width": 21.95, "average_return": 4.27, "best_return": 14.39, "worst_return": -3.89 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 30, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 10.16, "bar_width": 50.8, "average_return": 9.25, "best_return": 14.67, "worst_return": 1.19 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "setup", "label": "Setup in timing window", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 314.80, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 368.90; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 12, "constructive_percent": 55, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 495, "positive_rate": 53.9, "median_return": 0.39, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.25, "excess_observations": 495, "p10": -3.77, "p90": 4.86 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 177, "positive_rate": 60.5, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 177, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 9.15 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 93, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 2.47, "average_return": 3.45, "median_excess_return": -0.78, "excess_observations": 93, "p10": -10.55, "p90": 15.89 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 38, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 6.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 10, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 66, "explanation": "Price is 92% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 92% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-28", "2025-04-04", 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254.899994, 258.450012, 259.799988, 262.299988, 265.049988, 261.200012, 259.100006, 256.850006, 263.100006, 261.649994, 271.200012, 272.049988, 271.600006, 269.100006, 272.700012, 261.950012, 264.899994, 264.299988, 268.899994, 272.899994, 263.549988, 265.399994, 254.25, 255.449997, 263.399994, 267.5, 271.149994, 261.75, 267.049988, 267.350006, 277.950012, 271.149994, 273.5, 274.450012, 271.549988, 267.700012, 264.149994, 263.399994, 264.25, 264.649994, 273.049988, 272.600006, 267.100006, 269.25, 268.899994, 273.25, 280.549988, 284.799988, 284.950012, 289.399994, 296.75, 295.700012, 295.700012, 296.149994, 293.75, 294.0, 290.100006, 267.0, 263.649994, 273.350006, 286.850006, 295.100006, 296.549988, 303.600006, 299.799988, 303.5, 306.899994, 299.75, 297.0, 302.299988, 300.549988, 304.649994, 304.450012, 304.799988, 296.200012, 307.549988, 312.850006, 314.899994, 306.049988, 304.149994, 307.899994, 310.049988, 311.399994, 320.299988, 313.799988, 318.049988, 322.064301, 321.549988, 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