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Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.", "cycles": [ { "period": 10, "label": "10w", "estimated_period": 11, "period_range": [ 9, 13 ], "period_strength": 10, "phase": "falling", "value": -1.1801323310175924, "slope": -1.1099764054719015, "amplitude": 4.279, "weeks_since_trough": 1, "weeks_since_crest": 9, "projected_trough_window": 10, "projected_crest_window": 2, "trough_window": { "start": 8, "midpoint": 10, "end": 12 }, "crest_window": { "start": 0, "midpoint": 2, "end": 4 }, "fld": { "value": 37.049999, "state": "crossed down", "weeks_since_cross": 4, "displacement": 6, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": true, "value": 31.26923076923077, "state": "price above", "slope": 0.2692307692307692, "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two 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9.66258341488242, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 38.150002, "confirmation": 32.599998, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 38.15; Wave 2 35.75.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 57% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 271, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 38.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.942365707712804, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.599998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.547847205879572, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.66258341488242, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 38.150002, "confirmation": 32.599998, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 42.30; Wave 2 35.75.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 14% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 266, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 42.299999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 73.71662833675563, "weeks": 27, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 267, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 34.700001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.966898769903043, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.0259336303765516, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 42.299999, "confirmation": 34.700001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 25 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 10.469854828946612, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 42.30; Wave 2 35.75.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 14% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 266, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 42.299999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 73.71662833675563, "weeks": 27, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 267, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 34.700001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.966898769903043, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.0259336303765516, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 42.299999, "confirmation": 34.700001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 25 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 10.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 6.543659268091632, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 38.15; Wave 2 35.75.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 57% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 271, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 38.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.942365707712804, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.599998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.547847205879572, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.66258341488242, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 38.150002, "confirmation": 32.599998, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.580561487664142, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 38.15; Wave 2 35.75.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 57% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 271, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 38.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.942365707712804, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.599998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.547847205879572, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.66258341488242, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 38.150002, "confirmation": 32.599998, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 82, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 271, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 38.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.942365707712804, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.599998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.547847205879572, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.66258341488242, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 12.669398046013235, "fair_value_gap": -8.05198655804918, "market_activity": 9.577498, "market_dynamics": -0.582412, "relative_strength": -9.096237, "roc30": 45.62118719434571, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 12.7% above its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -6.290961662334908 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -7.741935483870968 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 35.41666666666667 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 27.45098493586399 } ], "range": { "high_52": 44.75, "low_52": 24.200001, "position_52": 56.20437743086995, "drawdown": -20.11173184357542 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 66.1757765624204, "average_weekly_range": 10.53914839336845, "active_drawdown": -62.304972782819625 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.599998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.547847205879572, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 271, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 38.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.942365707712804, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 271, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 38.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.942365707712804, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 31.73, "fair_value": 38.880666, "trend_gap": 12.669398046013235, "fair_value_gap": -8.05198655804918 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.599998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.547847205879572, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.66258341488242, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 9.66258341488242, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "12.7% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-9.1", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+9.6", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.6", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+45.6", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 38 }, "volume_ratio": 61.700904124098244, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 17, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 16, "positive_rate": 31.2, "median_return": -9.97, "bar_width": 49.85, "average_return": -2.14, "best_return": 38.23, "worst_return": -18.45 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 13, "positive_rate": 38.5, "median_return": -24.41, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -2.6, "best_return": 57.5, "worst_return": -35.07 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 11, "positive_rate": 27.3, "median_return": -31.36, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -18.96, "best_return": 27.65, "worst_return": -36.83 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 32.60, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 38.15; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 5, "constructive_percent": 23, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 164, "positive_rate": 54.3, "median_return": 0.38, "average_return": 3.77, "median_excess_return": 0.27, "excess_observations": 164, "p10": -8.17, "p90": 13.93 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 95, "positive_rate": 56.8, "median_return": 1.49, "average_return": 10.95, "median_excess_return": -1.0, "excess_observations": 95, "p10": -13.46, "p90": 36.18 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 71, "positive_rate": 53.5, "median_return": 0.6, "average_return": 20.04, "median_excess_return": -3.11, "excess_observations": 71, "p10": -20.86, "p90": 68.81 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 6.71329230769231, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 48, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 10, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 52, "explanation": "Price is 12.7% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 56% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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