{ "ticker": { "symbol": "7515", "name": "CSOP Leveraged and Inverse Series - CSOP Nikkei 225 Daily (-2x) Inverse Product", "exchange": "HKG" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 13.98, "latest_open": 14.72, "latest_high": 15.59, "latest_low": 13.82, "bar_count": 114, "analysis_bar_count": 114, "reversal_percent": 12.385055383795512, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 9, "date": "2024-08-09", "price": 89.300003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 12, "date": "2024-08-30", "price": 73.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": 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-1.577062629656198 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -1.4421114179091927 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -1.1529122571063148 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.9985728684726202 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.8333730799080122 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.7819105397325854 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 32.40; Wave 2 24.88.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 21.12; Wave 3 12.31.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 21.12; Wave 4 14.69.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 11.28, 12.57, 0.71.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 12.31; Wave 5 13.98.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.11\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 2w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 76, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 32.400002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.406786723163844, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.120001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.814815752171874, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 24.879999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.803019990387327, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.31, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -50.52250604993995, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 14.69, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.33387489845653, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.833219877467659, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 14.69, "confirmation": 13.98, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 90 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 12.31; Wave 2 13.98.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.31, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -50.52250604993995, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 14.69, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.33387489845653, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.833219877467659, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 12.31, "confirmation": 14.69, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 6 }, { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.88; Wave B 14.69.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 12.57; C length 0.71.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.06\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 24.879999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.803019990387327, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.31, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -50.52250604993995, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 14.69, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.33387489845653, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.833219877467659, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 13.98, "confirmation": 14.69, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 4 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 19.81608861407282, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 19.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 12.385055383795512, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 32.40; Wave 2 24.88.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 21.12; Wave 3 12.31.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 21.12; Wave 4 14.69.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 11.28, 12.57, 0.71.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 12.31; Wave 5 13.98.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.11\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 2w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 76, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 32.400002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.406786723163844, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.120001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.814815752171874, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 24.879999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.803019990387327, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.31, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -50.52250604993995, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 14.69, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.33387489845653, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.833219877467659, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 14.69, "confirmation": 13.98, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 90 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 12.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 8.669538768656858, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 32.40; Wave 2 24.88.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 21.12; Wave 3 12.31.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 21.12; Wave 4 14.69.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 11.28, 12.57, 0.71.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 12.31; Wave 5 13.98.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.11\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 2w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 76, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 32.400002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.406786723163844, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.120001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.814815752171874, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 24.879999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.803019990387327, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.31, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -50.52250604993995, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 14.69, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.33387489845653, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.833219877467659, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 14.69, "confirmation": 13.98, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 8.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave5_risk", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 73, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave5", "labels": [ { "index": 76, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 32.400002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.406786723163844, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.120001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.814815752171874, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 24.879999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.803019990387327, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.31, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -50.52250604993995, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 14.69, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.33387489845653, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.833219877467659, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -26.653957200013238, "fair_value_gap": -71.48710008490848, "market_activity": -90.578973, "market_dynamics": 0.790896, "relative_strength": -46.184998, "roc30": -49.42112696892644, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave decline mature. Price is 26.7% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 8.120649651972164 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -17.180089880337086 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -44.43561208267091 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -71.99519118570478 } ], "range": { "high_52": 49.299999, "low_52": 12.3, "position_52": 4.540540663257855, "drawdown": -71.64300145320489 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 48.88590987539441, "average_weekly_range": 9.09064737418898, "active_drawdown": -85.17182843839444 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 12.31, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -50.52250604993995, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 14.69, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.33387489845653, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 14.69, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.33387489845653, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 19.060333, "fair_value": 49.030439, "trend_gap": -26.653957200013238, "fair_value_gap": -71.48710008490848 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 14.69, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.33387489845653, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 13.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.833219877467659, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -4.833219877467659, "weeks": 3, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "26.7% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-46.2", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-90.6", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.8", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-49.4", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 44, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 114, "confirmed_pivots": 11 }, "volume_ratio": 86.38266631956833, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 28, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 28, "positive_rate": 14.3, "median_return": -12.68, "bar_width": 63.4, "average_return": -10.86, "best_return": 17.61, "worst_return": -25.04 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -27.21, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -29.47, "best_return": -15.72, "worst_return": -50.28 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 12, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -51.24, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -49.69, "best_return": -40.77, "worst_return": -59.61 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "mature", "label": "Mature / manage risk", "now": "Five-wave decline mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 14.69; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 427, "positive_rate": 42.9, "median_return": -1.12, "average_return": 0.54, "median_excess_return": -0.2, "excess_observations": 427, "p10": -8.23, "p90": 11.24 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 159, "positive_rate": 46.5, "median_return": -1.58, "average_return": 0.27, "median_excess_return": -0.04, "excess_observations": 159, "p10": -14.52, "p90": 16.37 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 88, "positive_rate": 44.3, "median_return": -1.05, "average_return": 0.47, "median_excess_return": -1.19, "excess_observations": 88, "p10": -20.39, "p90": 23.91 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 5.078683834048634, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 32, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 25, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 26.7% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 5% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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