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"date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.046438436726628445 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -0.7216521150903178 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -1.5529647996870055 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.381600726797373 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.6643836418438878 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.8125098863758266 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 1.7292426264111675 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.5898057977061522 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.7642249010576552 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.9769282672475845 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 2.0837220374516945 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 2.127769017813522 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 2.0625499681474566 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.8454499378773903 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.7891963093489223 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.5992258296655881 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.5545531484527804 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.5739192539391047 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.4330640136381316 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.2938718788082155 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": null, "alternates": [], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 0, "changes": null, "observations": 0, "label": "Unavailable" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "warming", "title": "Needs more weekly history", "direction": "neutral", "confidence": 20, "labels": [], "notes": [ "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context." ], "metrics": {} }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 7.3% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.1852634757662692 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 7.395833333333334 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 11.724252907097915 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": null } ], "range": { "high_52": 13.5585, "low_52": 10.953, "position_52": 94.03185568988678, "drawdown": -1.1468820297230518 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 10.867854289104733, "average_weekly_range": 1.346566566591622, "active_drawdown": -0.9532958912208067 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 0, "date": "2025-08-01", "price": 10.953, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 0, "date": "2025-08-01", "price": 10.953, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level", "trend": 12.488917, "fair_value": 12.104019, "trend_gap": 7.319153454218646, "fair_value_gap": 10.731815606039623 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 0, "date": "2025-08-01", "price": 10.953, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 51, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 13.403, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.368300922121804, "weeks": 51, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 22.368300922121804, "weeks": 51, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "7.3% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+7.0", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+56.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+12.4", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "neutral" }, "evidence": { "score": 32, "history_score": 20, "indicator_coverage": 47, "structure_score": 17, "weekly_observations": 52, "confirmed_pivots": 1 }, "volume_ratio": 129.41639884803206, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 0, "horizons": [], "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "observing", "label": "Observing", "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.", "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.", "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.", "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 490, "positive_rate": 54.7, "median_return": 0.47, "average_return": 0.51, "median_excess_return": -0.13, "excess_observations": 490, "p10": -3.81, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 1.4, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -5.45, "p90": 9.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 2.41, "average_return": 3.48, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -8.06, "p90": 16.04 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": null, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 51, "label": "Elevated vulnerability", "tone": "elevated", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 2, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 10, "explanation": "Price is 7.3% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 76, "explanation": "Price is 94% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 13, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 88, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 88/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 94% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 88/100.", "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2025-08-01", "2025-08-08", "2025-08-15", "2025-08-22", "2025-08-29", "2025-09-05", "2025-09-12", "2025-09-19", "2025-09-26", "2025-10-03", "2025-10-10", "2025-10-17", "2025-10-24", "2025-10-31", "2025-11-07", "2025-11-14", "2025-11-21", "2025-11-28", "2025-12-05", "2025-12-12", "2025-12-19", "2025-12-26", "2026-01-02", "2026-01-09", "2026-01-16", "2026-01-23", "2026-01-30", "2026-02-06", "2026-02-13", "2026-02-20", "2026-02-27", "2026-03-06", "2026-03-13", "2026-03-20", "2026-03-27", "2026-04-03", "2026-04-10", "2026-04-17", "2026-04-24", "2026-05-01", "2026-05-08", "2026-05-15", "2026-05-22", "2026-05-29", "2026-06-05", "2026-06-12", "2026-06-19", "2026-06-26", "2026-07-03", "2026-07-10", "2026-07-17", "2026-07-24" ], "close": [ 10.953, 11.0885, 11.188, 11.22, 11.205, 11.1955, 11.4195, 11.48, 11.5085, 11.6765, 11.5995, 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