{ "ticker": { "symbol": "7761", "name": "Power Win", "exchange": "TWO" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-14", "latest_close": 39.150002, "latest_open": 40.099998, "latest_high": 40.200001, "latest_low": 37.0, "bar_count": 102, "analysis_bar_count": 102, "reversal_percent": 7.42369578805353, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-14", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 32, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 37.755554, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.05917021624599, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 35, "date": "2025-05-02", "price": 42.027893, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.315789459744128, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, 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"value": -1.0681453382931878 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.42213247865698694 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.020153687589868186 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.00343692065146034 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.2720356466760435 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.25126970626405154 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.2706169905626278 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.23890771587124765 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.30359143446202763 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.3587968763675745 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.5505870038848414 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.45862243993196306 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.3512549830766504 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.3794512335082395 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.4453326998247364 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.4437704988161859 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.33887092256966417 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": -0.3732876167034758 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 41.78; Wave 2 39.15.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 34% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 85, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 41.779503, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.61777530936809, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 37.805233, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.512487498953726, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 39.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.5570975055225804, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 41.779503, "confirmation": 37.805233, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 35.22; Wave B 37.81.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.56; C length 1.34.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.21\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 83, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 35.221958, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -49.35714322070607, "weeks": 23, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 41.779503, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.61777530936809, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 37.805233, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.512487498953726, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 39.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.5570975055225804, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 39.150002, "confirmation": 37.805233, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 25 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 35.22; Wave 2 39.15.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 83, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 35.221958, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -49.35714322070607, "weeks": 23, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 41.779503, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.61777530936809, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 39.150002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.2937584489695775, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 35.221958, "confirmation": 41.779503, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 11.877913260885649, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 35.22; Wave 2 39.15.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 83, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 35.221958, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -49.35714322070607, "weeks": 23, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 41.779503, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.61777530936809, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 39.150002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.2937584489695775, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 35.221958, "confirmation": 41.779503, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 11.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 7.42369578805353, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 41.78; Wave 2 39.15.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 34% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 85, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 41.779503, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.61777530936809, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 37.805233, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.512487498953726, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 39.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.5570975055225804, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 41.779503, "confirmation": 37.805233, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 7.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 5.196587051637471, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 37.81; Wave 2 39.15.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 88, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 37.805233, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.512487498953726, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 39.792366, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.256237939335012, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 39.150002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.6142895348318835, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 37.805233, "confirmation": 39.792366, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 60, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 85, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 41.779503, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.61777530936809, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 37.805233, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.512487498953726, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 39.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.5570975055225804, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 0.7131208892842165, "fair_value_gap": -6.004481437194532, "market_activity": 6.840144, "market_dynamics": 0.289733, "relative_strength": -35.806893, "roc30": -5.620413761049227, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 0.7% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.1275484661339669 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 3.5570975055225804 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -1.4913157239402839 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -10.851866276804326 } ], "range": { "high_52": 70.642628, "low_52": 32.787719, "position_52": 16.807022307199308, "drawdown": -44.580201631230366 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 26.397578120617617, "average_weekly_range": 6.267330598171475, "active_drawdown": -43.709320640406446 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 88, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 37.805233, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.512487498953726, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 85, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 41.779503, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.61777530936809, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 85, "date": "2026-04-24", "price": 41.779503, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.61777530936809, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 38.872792, "fair_value": 41.650924, "trend_gap": 0.7131208892842165, "fair_value_gap": -6.004481437194532 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 88, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 37.805233, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.512487498953726, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 39.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.5570975055225804, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 3.5570975055225804, "weeks": 13, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "0.7% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-35.8", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+6.8", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-5.6", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 79, "history_score": 39, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 102, "confirmed_pivots": 12 }, "volume_ratio": 50.26968830800851, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 11, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 10, "positive_rate": 50.0, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": 0.25, "best_return": 3.42, "worst_return": -3.29 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 1, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -0.22, "bar_width": 1.1, "average_return": -0.22, "best_return": -0.22, "worst_return": -0.22 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 37.81, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 41.78; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 15, "constructive_percent": 62, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 158, "positive_rate": 45.6, "median_return": -1.47, "average_return": 1.15, "median_excess_return": -1.69, "excess_observations": 158, "p10": -10.45, "p90": 16.18 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 97, "positive_rate": 51.5, "median_return": 0.5, "average_return": 6.33, "median_excess_return": -2.8, "excess_observations": 97, "p10": -14.24, "p90": 21.61 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 79, "positive_rate": 54.4, "median_return": 2.52, "average_return": 14.04, "median_excess_return": -2.24, "excess_observations": 79, "p10": -22.78, "p90": 63.53 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 6.716477306948791, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 15, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.7% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 17% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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