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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave2",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 58,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 0.9438; Wave 2 0.2429.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 215,
          "date": "2025-08-15",
          "price": 0.943836,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 68.91496230966919,
          "weeks": 7,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 260,
          "date": "2026-06-26",
          "price": 0.148206,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -84.29748388491221,
          "weeks": 45,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-10-09",
          "price": 0.242917,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 63.90497010917237,
          "weeks": 15,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "2"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 0.943836,
      "confirmation": 0.148206,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 6
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "tactical-bullish-wave4",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave4",
        "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 90,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 0.1482; Wave 2 0.2031.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 0.2292; Wave 3 0.2585.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 0.2292; Wave 4 0.2429.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.68\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 3.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 2w.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 260,
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "price": 0.148206,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -62.53014911486749,
            "weeks": 23,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 268,
            "date": "2026-08-21",
            "price": 0.229211,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 54.65703142922689,
            "weeks": 8,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 269,
            "date": "2026-08-28",
            "price": 0.203063,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -11.407829467172172,
            "weeks": 1,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 273,
            "date": "2026-09-25",
            "price": 0.258472,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 27.286605634704497,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "3"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 0.242917,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -6.018059983286386,
            "weeks": 2,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "4"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 0.229211,
        "confirmation": 0.258472,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 88
      },
      {
        "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "strategic",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 0.9438; Wave 2 0.2429.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 215,
            "date": "2025-08-15",
            "price": 0.943836,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 68.91496230966919,
            "weeks": 7,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 260,
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "price": 0.148206,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -84.29748388491221,
            "weeks": 45,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 0.242917,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 63.90497010917237,
            "weeks": 15,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 0.943836,
        "confirmation": 0.148206,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 6
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 24.0,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 0.9438; Wave 2 0.2429.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 215,
              "date": "2025-08-15",
              "price": 0.943836,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 68.91496230966919,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 260,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 0.148206,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -84.29748388491221,
              "weeks": 45,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 0.242917,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 63.90497010917237,
              "weeks": 15,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 0.943836,
          "confirmation": 0.148206,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 6
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 16.0,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 0.9438; Wave 2 0.2429.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 215,
              "date": "2025-08-15",
              "price": 0.943836,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 68.91496230966919,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 260,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 0.148206,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -84.29748388491221,
              "weeks": 45,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 0.242917,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 63.90497010917237,
              "weeks": 15,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 0.943836,
          "confirmation": 0.148206,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 6
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 11.2,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave4",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 90,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 0.1482; Wave 2 0.2031.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 0.2292; Wave 3 0.2585.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 0.2292; Wave 4 0.2429.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.68\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 2w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 260,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 0.148206,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -62.53014911486749,
              "weeks": 23,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 268,
              "date": "2026-08-21",
              "price": 0.229211,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 54.65703142922689,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 0.203063,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -11.407829467172172,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 273,
              "date": "2026-09-25",
              "price": 0.258472,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 27.286605634704497,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 0.242917,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -6.018059983286386,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 0.229211,
          "confirmation": 0.258472,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 88
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 84,
      "changes": 1,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "cycle_rollover",
    "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
    "direction": "bearish",
    "confidence": 42,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 215,
        "date": "2025-08-15",
        "price": 0.943836,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 68.91496230966919,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 260,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 0.148206,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -84.29748388491221,
        "weeks": 45,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 0.242917,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 63.90497010917237,
        "weeks": 15,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 12.768031641544383,
      "fair_value_gap": -52.305248607936925,
      "market_activity": 24.028596,
      "market_dynamics": 1.78129,
      "relative_strength": -3.019447,
      "roc30": -8.572643717961261,
      "hurst_alignment": 100,
      "hurst_risk": 0
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 12.8% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 17.827069711491827
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 45.88032525012311
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -4.4608057138587105
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": -61.735411563634656
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 0.735054,
      "low_52": 0.138695,
      "position_52": 17.476385868243792,
      "drawdown": -66.95249600709607
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 85.98229397412508,
      "average_weekly_range": 10.042957003973786,
      "active_drawdown": -91.81612397114924
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 260,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 0.148206,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -84.29748388491221,
        "weeks": 45,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 215,
        "date": "2025-08-15",
        "price": 0.943836,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 68.91496230966919,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 215,
        "date": "2025-08-15",
        "price": 0.943836,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 68.91496230966919,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 0.215413,
      "fair_value": 0.509316,
      "trend_gap": 12.768031641544383,
      "fair_value_gap": -52.305248607936925
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 260,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 0.148206,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -84.29748388491221,
        "weeks": 45,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 0.242917,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 63.90497010917237,
        "weeks": 15,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 63.90497010917237,
      "weeks": 15,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "12.8% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-3.0",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+24.0",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+1.8",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-8.6",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 5,
      "negative": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 71,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bearish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 38
    },
    "volume_ratio": 321.99532091731476,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 58,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 57,
          "positive_rate": 42.1,
          "median_return": -2.04,
          "bar_width": 10.2,
          "average_return": 5.02,
          "best_return": 177.39,
          "worst_return": -42.68
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 53,
          "positive_rate": 32.1,
          "median_return": -17.66,
          "bar_width": 88.3,
          "average_return": -2.11,
          "best_return": 223.66,
          "worst_return": -56.0
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 49,
          "positive_rate": 20.4,
          "median_return": -28.63,
          "bar_width": 100.0,
          "average_return": -22.14,
          "best_return": 78.91,
          "worst_return": -71.11
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 0.1482, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 0.94; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": false,
      "peers": 0,
      "constructive_count": 0,
      "constructive_percent": null,
      "rising_cycle_count": 0,
      "rising_cycle_percent": null,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "COIN",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 288.5425886208047,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 12,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 52,
          "explanation": "Price is 12.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 17% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 2,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 16,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
    "dates": [
      "2023-10-20",
      "2023-10-27",
      "2023-11-03",
      "2023-11-10",
      "2023-11-17",
      "2023-11-24",
      "2023-12-01",
      "2023-12-08",
      "2023-12-15",
      "2023-12-22",
      "2023-12-29",
      "2024-01-05",
      "2024-01-12",
      "2024-01-19",
      "2024-01-26",
      "2024-02-02",
      "2024-02-09",
      "2024-02-16",
      "2024-02-23",
      "2024-03-01",
      "2024-03-08",
      "2024-03-15",
      "2024-03-22",
      "2024-03-29",
      "2024-04-05",
      "2024-04-12",
      "2024-04-19",
      "2024-04-26",
      "2024-05-03",
      "2024-05-10",
      "2024-05-17",
      "2024-05-24",
      "2024-05-31",
      "2024-06-07",
      "2024-06-14",
      "2024-06-21",
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