{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "TEND",
    "name": "US Large Cap Mod Buffer Dec",
    "exchange": "EBS"
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  "latest_week": "2026-08-07",
  "latest_close": 5.43,
  "latest_open": 5.38,
  "latest_high": 5.442,
  "latest_low": 5.38,
  "bar_count": 31,
  "analysis_bar_count": 31,
  "reversal_percent": 5.0,
  "model": {
    "version": "ewc-2.1.0",
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
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      "date": "2026-01-09",
      "price": 5.017,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": null,
      "weeks": 0,
      "confirmed": true
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    {
      "index": 30,
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "price": 5.43,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 8.232011162049021,
      "weeks": 30,
      "confirmed": false
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    "trend_bias": "bearish",
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    "slope": -0.6080484094138279,
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    "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing",
    "weeks_since_turn": 30,
    "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 0,
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        "date": "2026-01-30",
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        "date": "2026-02-06",
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        "date": "2026-02-13",
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        "date": "2026-02-20",
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        "date": "2026-02-27",
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        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-04-10",
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": 3.759100279981074
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        "date": "2026-07-31",
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  "hurst": {
    "status": "mixed",
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    "alignment_score": 50,
    "risk_score": 50,
    "trough_alignment": 0,
    "crest_alignment": 0,
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    "nearest_crest_window": 10,
    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
    "cycles": [
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          15
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        "slope": 0.1930315382959315,
        "amplitude": 2.017,
        "weeks_since_trough": 1,
        "weeks_since_crest": 4,
        "projected_trough_window": 9,
        "projected_crest_window": 6,
        "trough_window": {
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          "midpoint": 9,
          "end": 14
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        "crest_window": {
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        "fld": {
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          "state": "crossed up",
          "weeks_since_cross": 17,
          "displacement": 5,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "vtl": {
          "available": true,
          "value": 5.2976,
          "state": "price above",
          "slope": 0.006600000000000073,
          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
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            "date": "2026-06-19",
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            "value": 0.35095812158727957
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            "date": "2026-07-03",
            "value": 0.36619887504191123
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            "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "period": 20,
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": 0.5297855147884434
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": 0.7363067853002294
      }
    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": null,
    "alternates": [],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.5,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 5.8% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 6 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 1.7616191904047867
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 3.804243930414832
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 8.828539933861112
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 5.442,
      "low_52": 4.764,
      "position_52": 98.23008849557516,
      "drawdown": -0.22050716648291904
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 8.544033643689001,
      "average_weekly_range": 0.3924018220513837,
      "active_drawdown": 0.0
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 0,
        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "price": 5.017,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": {
        "index": 0,
        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "price": 5.017,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": 5.130717,
      "fair_value": 5.127048,
      "trend_gap": 5.833161330083105,
      "fair_value_gap": 5.908897283583056
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 0,
        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "price": 5.017,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 30,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 5.43,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 8.232011162049021,
        "weeks": 30,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 8.232011162049021,
      "weeks": 30,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "5.8% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Cresting",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+56.7",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.5",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+8.2",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 4,
      "negative": 1,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 6,
      "agreement": 67,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 24,
      "history_score": 12,
      "indicator_coverage": 37,
      "structure_score": 17,
      "weekly_observations": 31,
      "confirmed_pivots": 1
    },
    "volume_ratio": 9.18203382049124,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "observing",
      "label": "Observing",
      "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.",
      "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.",
      "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.",
      "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 13,
      "constructive_percent": 54,
      "rising_cycle_count": 8,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 33,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 696,
          "positive_rate": 62.4,
          "median_return": 0.89,
          "average_return": 0.74,
          "median_excess_return": 0.03,
          "excess_observations": 696,
          "p10": -6.54,
          "p90": 6.54
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 244,
          "positive_rate": 71.3,
          "median_return": 3.44,
          "average_return": 3.37,
          "median_excess_return": 1.44,
          "excess_observations": 244,
          "p10": -11.5,
          "p90": 17.53
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 133,
          "positive_rate": 76.7,
          "median_return": 5.49,
          "average_return": 4.99,
          "median_excess_return": 3.54,
          "excess_observations": 133,
          "p10": -16.93,
          "p90": 26.25
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^SSMI",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": null,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 47,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 5.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 14,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 93,
          "explanation": "Price is 98% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 8,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Price is 98% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.",
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.",
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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