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"value": 0.8671200133092543 }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "value": 0.865796503514209 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "value": 0.9340933890272887 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "value": 1.030578008705838 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": 1.0846605994335827 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": 1.1644210813786535 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": 1.1898133036023777 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": 1.163878211329175 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": 1.244594666360001 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": 1.3907373850395046 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": 1.3015362770462855 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": 1.249070678297974 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": 1.1167755581256917 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": 1.1487035602450963 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 1.2109979355242328 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 1.1371697493860038 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 1.0994302142954238 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 1.0924750848141251 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 1.0648898255434842 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 1.1180329545717727 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 1.1371773530361866 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 1.097266050793268 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 1.034159960302564 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.8839750574792207 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.7246874957462257 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.6638750160019753 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.608543358625159 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.616160756972693 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.6269114900297506 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.5284923003811134 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.33867992935486196 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.2903029229841223 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.3818940741694955 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.6523372412653088 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.9348306719606507 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.1000780960588568 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.3324641129510866 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.5463717455710226 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.7437098585556319 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.9150855889922307 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.957356566018 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.9268234828544764 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.9955577735231342 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.919313366967195 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.8720363029392424 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.8462640630673333 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.6703291791672092 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.5172890352276225 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.3353150578287885 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 143.45; Wave 2 173.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 129, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 143.451004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.443210391945197, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 141, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 187.940002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.013375131205063, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 173.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.842931171193665, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 143.451004, "confirmation": 187.940002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 16 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 113.71; Wave B 143.45.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 45.45; C length 29.75.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.65\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 80, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 113.710587, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.083510171083205, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 159.164719, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 39.97352682736568, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 129, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 143.451004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.872611907165167, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 173.199997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.738086294606887, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 173.199997, "confirmation": 143.451004, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 44 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 113.71; Wave 2 143.45.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 159.16; Wave 3 173.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.65\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 80, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 113.710587, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.083510171083205, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 159.164719, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 39.97352682736568, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 129, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 143.451004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.872611907165167, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 173.199997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.738086294606887, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 143.451004, "confirmation": 173.199997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 40 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 113.71; Wave B 143.45.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 45.45; C length 29.75.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.65\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 80, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 113.710587, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.083510171083205, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 159.164719, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 39.97352682736568, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 129, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 143.451004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.872611907165167, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 173.199997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.738086294606887, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 173.199997, "confirmation": 143.451004, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 44 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 143.45; Wave 2 173.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 129, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 143.451004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.443210391945197, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 141, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 187.940002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.013375131205063, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 173.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.842931171193665, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 143.451004, "confirmation": 187.940002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 16 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 143.45; Wave 2 173.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 129, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 143.451004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.443210391945197, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 141, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 187.940002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.013375131205063, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 173.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.842931171193665, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 143.451004, "confirmation": 187.940002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave2_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 84, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 129, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 143.451004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.443210391945197, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 141, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 187.940002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.013375131205063, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 173.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.842931171193665, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup.", "30-week price rate of change is positive.", "Relative Strength is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 4.872258018795168, "fair_value_gap": 26.468006989036937, "market_activity": 32.793582, "market_dynamics": 0.250968, "relative_strength": 3.570488, "roc30": 13.155305365309204, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 4.9% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -5.879799350509744 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 5.034813553044898 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 12.860710117645489 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 23.903277665969537 } ], "range": { "high_52": 188.0, "low_52": 139.24796, "position_52": 69.64228984058923, "drawdown": -7.872342021276598 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 18.188428458511964, "average_weekly_range": 2.7617046757088515, "active_drawdown": -7.842931171193665 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 129, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 143.451004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.443210391945197, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 141, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 187.940002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.013375131205063, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 129, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 143.451004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.443210391945197, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 165.153302, "fair_value": 136.95163, "trend_gap": 4.872258018795168, "fair_value_gap": 26.468006989036937 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 141, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 187.940002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.013375131205063, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 147, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 173.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.842931171193665, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -7.842931171193665, "weeks": 6, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "4.9% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+3.6", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+32.8", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+13.2", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 85, "history_score": 57, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 148, "confirmed_pivots": 13 }, "volume_ratio": 270.2248586414973, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 46, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 45, "positive_rate": 57.8, "median_return": 0.66, "bar_width": 3.3000000000000003, "average_return": -0.27, "best_return": 15.1, "worst_return": -14.01 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 36, "positive_rate": 33.3, "median_return": -3.4, "bar_width": 17.0, "average_return": -2.97, "best_return": 21.39, "worst_return": -22.89 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 30, "positive_rate": 53.3, "median_return": 2.27, "bar_width": 11.35, "average_return": 5.35, "best_return": 22.67, "worst_return": -9.01 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 187.94, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 143.45; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 12, "constructive_percent": 55, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 495, "positive_rate": 53.9, "median_return": 0.39, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.25, "excess_observations": 495, "p10": -3.77, "p90": 4.86 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 177, "positive_rate": 60.5, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 177, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 9.15 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 93, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 2.47, "average_return": 3.45, "median_excess_return": -0.78, "excess_observations": 93, "p10": -10.55, "p90": 15.89 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 17.17609325362747, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 31, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 4.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 70% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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