{ "ticker": { "symbol": "SFEB", "name": "FT VEST U.S. SMALL CAP MODERATE BUFFER ETF - FEBRUARY", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-31", "latest_close": 26.1388, "latest_open": 26.15, "latest_high": 26.3, "latest_low": 25.9812, "bar_count": 128, "analysis_bar_count": 128, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-31", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 57, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 20.4266, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 19.22, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.907003612936082, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true 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] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 19.22; Wave B 23.36.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 5.33; C length 2.77.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.52\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 19.22, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.907003612936082, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 24.55, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.731529656607712, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 23.3649, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.827291242362533, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 127, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 26.1388, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.87208162671358, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 26.1388, "confirmation": 23.3649, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 60 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 19.22; Wave 2 23.36.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 24.55; Wave 3 26.14.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.52\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 19.22, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.907003612936082, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 24.55, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.731529656607712, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 23.3649, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.827291242362533, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 127, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 26.1388, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.87208162671358, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 23.3649, "confirmation": 26.1388, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 40 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 19.22; Wave B 23.36.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 5.33; C length 2.77.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.52\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 19.22, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.907003612936082, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 24.55, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.731529656607712, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 23.3649, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.827291242362533, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 127, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 26.1388, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.87208162671358, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 26.1388, "confirmation": 23.3649, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 60 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 77, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 19.22, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.907003612936082, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 24.55, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.731529656607712, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 23.3649, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.827291242362533, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 127, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 26.1388, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.87208162671358, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 4.681055939935462, "fair_value_gap": 17.915832650534433, "market_activity": 52.687411, "market_dynamics": 0.801155, "relative_strength": -0.174244, "roc30": 10.566478291766781, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 4.7% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.14745543866082522 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 3.519999999999999 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 8.03210527620953 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 22.468983095318418 } ], "range": { "high_52": 26.35, "low_52": 21.46, "position_52": 95.68098159509199, "drawdown": -0.801518026565471 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 8.047879056092164, "average_weekly_range": 1.4636187319401968, "active_drawdown": -0.14745543866082522 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 19.22, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.907003612936082, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 24.969943, "fair_value": 22.167337, "trend_gap": 4.681055939935462, "fair_value_gap": 17.915832650534433 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 19.22, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.907003612936082, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 127, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 26.1388, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.997918834547356, "weeks": 69, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 35.997918834547356, "weeks": 69, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "4.7% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.2", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+52.7", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.8", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+10.6", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 69, "history_score": 49, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 33, "weekly_observations": 128, "confirmed_pivots": 2 }, "volume_ratio": 90.37663028153098, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 42, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 42, "positive_rate": 83.3, "median_return": 1.52, "bar_width": 7.6, "average_return": 1.11, "best_return": 4.39, "worst_return": -4.83 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 34, "positive_rate": 91.2, "median_return": 4.3, "bar_width": 21.5, "average_return": 4.18, "best_return": 9.36, "worst_return": -1.18 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 27, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 9.48, "bar_width": 47.400000000000006, "average_return": 8.9, "best_return": 12.98, "worst_return": 2.36 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "setup", "label": "Setup in timing window", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 23.36, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 26.14; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 59, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 480, "positive_rate": 64.4, "median_return": 0.68, "average_return": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 480, "p10": -4.89, "p90": 6.14 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 167, "positive_rate": 69.5, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.26, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 167, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 12.5 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 90, "positive_rate": 67.8, "median_return": 3.24, "average_return": 2.98, "median_excess_return": -2.62, "excess_observations": 90, "p10": -11.29, "p90": 16.2 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 40, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 4.7% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 12, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 83, "explanation": "Price is 96% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 96% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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