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      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave4",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
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          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 24.20; Wave 2 11.65.",
          "hard": true
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          "detail": "Wave 1 10.19; Wave 3 9.31.",
          "hard": true
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          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 10.19; Wave 4 9.50.",
          "hard": true
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          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Retraced 10% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
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        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.17\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
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          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Retraced 8% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
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        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 5w.",
          "hard": false
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      "labels": [
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        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 10.19,
      "confirmation": 9.31,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 15
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 11.65; Wave 2 9.50.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Retraced 8% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 267,
            "date": "2026-08-14",
            "price": 11.65,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 14.327772325809626,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 270,
            "date": "2026-09-04",
            "price": 9.31,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -20.085836909871244,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 9.5,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 2.040816326530607,
            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 11.65,
        "confirmation": 9.31,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 4
      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-wave5",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave5",
        "title": "Five-wave decline mature",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 95,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 22.15; Wave 2 16.79.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 15.32; Wave 3 10.19.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 15.32; Wave 4 11.65.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Motive lengths: 6.83, 6.60, 2.15.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 10.19; Wave 5 9.50.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.97\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 3.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 245,
            "date": "2026-03-13",
            "price": 22.15,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 9.490855165595642,
            "weeks": 1,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 254,
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "price": 15.32,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -30.835214446952588,
            "weeks": 9,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 255,
            "date": "2026-05-22",
            "price": 16.790001,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 9.595306788511747,
            "weeks": 1,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 263,
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "price": 10.19,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -39.30911618170839,
            "weeks": 8,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "3"
          },
          {
            "index": 267,
            "date": "2026-08-14",
            "price": 11.65,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 14.327772325809626,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "4"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 9.5,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -18.4549356223176,
            "weeks": 8,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "5"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 11.65,
        "confirmation": 9.5,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 81
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 18.296312893892356,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 18.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 11.435195558682722,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 75,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 24.20; Wave 2 11.65.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 10.19; Wave 3 9.31.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 10.19; Wave 4 9.50.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 10% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.17\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 8% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 5w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 241,
              "date": "2026-02-06",
              "price": 24.200001,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 85.2986294027565,
              "weeks": 11,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 263,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 10.19,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -57.89256372344778,
              "weeks": 22,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 267,
              "date": "2026-08-14",
              "price": 11.65,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 14.327772325809626,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 270,
              "date": "2026-09-04",
              "price": 9.31,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -20.085836909871244,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 9.5,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 2.040816326530607,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 10.19,
          "confirmation": 9.31,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 15
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 11.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 8.004636891077904,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave5",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave decline mature",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 22.15; Wave 2 16.79.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 15.32; Wave 3 10.19.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 15.32; Wave 4 11.65.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 6.83, 6.60, 2.15.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 10.19; Wave 5 9.50.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.97\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 245,
              "date": "2026-03-13",
              "price": 22.15,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 9.490855165595642,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 254,
              "date": "2026-05-15",
              "price": 15.32,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -30.835214446952588,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 255,
              "date": "2026-05-22",
              "price": 16.790001,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 9.595306788511747,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 263,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 10.19,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -39.30911618170839,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 267,
              "date": "2026-08-14",
              "price": 11.65,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 14.327772325809626,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 9.5,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -18.4549356223176,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 11.65,
          "confirmation": 9.5,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 81
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 52,
      "changes": 3,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Moderate"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "cycle_rollover",
    "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
    "direction": "bearish",
    "confidence": 62,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 241,
        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "price": 24.200001,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 85.2986294027565,
        "weeks": 11,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 263,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 10.19,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -57.89256372344778,
        "weeks": 22,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 267,
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "price": 11.65,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 14.327772325809626,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 270,
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "price": 9.31,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -20.085836909871244,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "3"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 9.5,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 2.040816326530607,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "4"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Market Activity has fallen below zero.",
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -26.954868411886583,
      "fair_value_gap": -22.003783555409086,
      "market_activity": -42.614951,
      "market_dynamics": 0.069141,
      "relative_strength": -33.100777,
      "roc30": -57.110609480812634,
      "hurst_alignment": 75,
      "hurst_risk": 25
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 4 crest. Price is 27.0% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -1.656314699792962
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -16.446789797713276
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -42.59818384279057
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": -41.21287128712871
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 26.9,
      "low_52": 9.22,
      "position_52": 1.5837104072398154,
      "drawdown": -64.68401486988847
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 45.839186745370256,
      "average_weekly_range": 4.517815368965198,
      "active_drawdown": -70.55346102840457
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 270,
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "price": 9.31,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -20.085836909871244,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 267,
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "price": 11.65,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 14.327772325809626,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 267,
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "price": 11.65,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 14.327772325809626,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 13.005658,
      "fair_value": 12.180078,
      "trend_gap": -26.954868411886583,
      "fair_value_gap": -22.003783555409086
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 270,
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "price": 9.31,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -20.085836909871244,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 9.5,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 2.040816326530607,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 2.040816326530607,
      "weeks": 5,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "27.0% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Troughing",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-33.1",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-42.6",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.1",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-57.1",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 3,
      "negative": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "bearish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 16
    },
    "volume_ratio": 54.59646280199524,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 69,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 69,
          "positive_rate": 33.3,
          "median_return": -4.64,
          "bar_width": 23.2,
          "average_return": -3.43,
          "best_return": 19.12,
          "worst_return": -26.29
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 62,
          "positive_rate": 40.3,
          "median_return": -9.46,
          "bar_width": 47.300000000000004,
          "average_return": -2.84,
          "best_return": 47.93,
          "worst_return": -37.89
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 62,
          "positive_rate": 48.4,
          "median_return": -8.9,
          "bar_width": 44.5,
          "average_return": -1.37,
          "best_return": 75.24,
          "worst_return": -51.23
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 9.31, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 10.19; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 10,
      "constructive_percent": 42,
      "rising_cycle_count": 2,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 8,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 570,
          "positive_rate": 49.1,
          "median_return": -0.01,
          "average_return": 1.02,
          "median_excess_return": -0.29,
          "excess_observations": 570,
          "p10": -8.82,
          "p90": 12.49
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 218,
          "positive_rate": 50.0,
          "median_return": 0.08,
          "average_return": 3.92,
          "median_excess_return": -0.53,
          "excess_observations": 218,
          "p10": -16.67,
          "p90": 25.52
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 123,
          "positive_rate": 56.9,
          "median_return": 2.69,
          "average_return": 7.77,
          "median_excess_return": 0.48,
          "excess_observations": 123,
          "p10": -14.64,
          "p90": 32.87
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "000001.SS",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 7.263157894736836,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 9,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 27.0% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 2% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 25,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 5,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 48,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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