{ "ticker": { "symbol": "PAUD", "name": "IMII-MSCI W.ESG Cl.Par.Al.ETF R", "exchange": "GER" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-24", "latest_close": 5.823, "latest_open": 5.77, "latest_high": 5.829, "latest_low": 5.761, "bar_count": 113, "analysis_bar_count": 113, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-24", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 39, "date": "2025-02-28", "price": 5.16, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 45, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.369, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.329457364341092, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 85, "date": 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"value": 1.2661063385846638 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": 1.2293684814309003 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": 1.3209026804282424 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": 1.3555670677017497 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": 1.3297253230692656 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": 1.4317753799865582 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": 1.5087336630131187 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": 1.340813476783268 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": 1.2334359324290378 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": 1.0107062640962403 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": 0.9820881054516697 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 0.9982455261101055 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 0.922061848205425 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 0.8729053056519096 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 0.8570599497146866 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 0.8368419639241711 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 0.9660167491669045 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 1.09467895147811 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 1.0838456791523543 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.9692539943458762 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.8019555770284339 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.6739519133359161 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.6451876154432824 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.618459913673402 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.5430865004379639 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.42723730603092636 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.17521002985519277 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.09781985675386623 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.13976232846949688 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.02424640116647034 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.3213359755105105 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.6273635772428245 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.8247302715231482 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.0569412942324954 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.2673708300396813 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.479328162229568 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.6636244690879747 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.816357755775095 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.8614775870498605 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.933767528740594 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.919469190359651 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.9673935841578265 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 2.0083479117349494 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.9670799040380134 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.9647411773149894 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.37; Wave 2 4.92.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 5.38; Wave 3 5.82.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 46% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.89\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 45, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.369, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.329457364341092, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 5.385, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.254749370565346, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 4.9175, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.681522748375105, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 5.823, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.41382816471784, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 4.9175, "confirmation": 5.823, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 54 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 72, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.37; Wave B 4.92.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.02; C length 0.91.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.89\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 45, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.369, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.329457364341092, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 5.385, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.254749370565346, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 4.9175, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.681522748375105, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 5.823, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.41382816471784, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 5.823, "confirmation": 4.9175, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 46 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.37; Wave 2 4.92.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 5.38; Wave 3 5.82.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 46% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.89\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 45, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.369, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.329457364341092, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 5.385, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.254749370565346, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 4.9175, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.681522748375105, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 5.823, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.41382816471784, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 4.9175, "confirmation": 5.823, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 54 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 90, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 45, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 4.369, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.329457364341092, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 5.385, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.254749370565346, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 4.9175, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.681522748375105, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 5.823, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.41382816471784, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup.", "30-week price rate of change is positive.", "Relative Strength is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 7.457233017771144, "fair_value_gap": 13.746397688895108, "market_activity": 69.439872, "market_dynamics": 1.143077, "relative_strength": 5.671293, "roc30": 11.338432122370936, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 7.5% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.8363064008394618 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 7.2375690607734935 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 10.388625592417062 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 14.13171305370443 } ], "range": { "high_52": 5.845, "low_52": 4.9025, "position_52": 97.66578249336877, "drawdown": -0.37639007698886834 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 11.127250010050126, "average_weekly_range": 1.5509470452483016, "active_drawdown": -0.06864595846918757 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 95, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 4.9175, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.681522748375105, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 95, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 4.9175, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.681522748375105, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 5.4189, "fair_value": 5.119283, "trend_gap": 7.457233017771144, "fair_value_gap": 13.746397688895108 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 95, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 4.9175, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.681522748375105, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 112, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 5.823, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.41382816471784, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 18.41382816471784, "weeks": 17, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "7.5% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+5.7", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+69.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+11.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 1, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 73, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 113, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 62.17229572329741, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 21, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 20, "positive_rate": 70.0, "median_return": 1.57, "bar_width": 7.8500000000000005, "average_return": 1.49, "best_return": 5.37, "worst_return": -1.41 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 12, "positive_rate": 25.0, "median_return": -0.89, "bar_width": 4.45, "average_return": -1.05, "best_return": 2.23, "worst_return": -5.98 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 12, "positive_rate": 75.0, "median_return": 8.84, "bar_width": 44.2, "average_return": 6.08, "best_return": 11.32, "worst_return": -4.77 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 5.82, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 4.92; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 490, "positive_rate": 54.7, "median_return": 0.47, "average_return": 0.51, "median_excess_return": -0.13, "excess_observations": 490, "p10": -3.81, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 1.4, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -5.45, "p90": 9.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 2.41, "average_return": 3.48, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -8.06, "p90": 16.04 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 15.550403572041901, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 39, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 2, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 11, "explanation": "Price is 7.5% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 14, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 91, "explanation": "Price is 98% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 98% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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