{ "ticker": { "symbol": "2828", "name": "Hang Seng China Enterprises Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 87.980003, "latest_open": 88.699997, "latest_high": 89.599998, "latest_low": 86.839996, "bar_count": 120, "analysis_bar_count": 120, "reversal_percent": 5.534176287028441, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 11, "date": "2024-07-12", "price": 64.862556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 14, "date": "2024-08-02", "price": 59.39291, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.432671077593671, "weeks": 3, 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"value": -0.6597768002359187 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.5626166946813381 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.35203702135386095 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.2619380906793779 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.27032793375723807 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.14537571860752435 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.15868932199717692 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.2606504707201732 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.41183778238315 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.4652184186986438 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.5080646271763165 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.7837596164219675 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.1912102426089264 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.360911375394636 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -1.2012855733559271 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.9467331970858447 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.6659611860105401 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.23466524757214208 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.02901812628713235 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 98.62; Wave 2 87.98.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 52% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 75, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 98.620003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.931074280777725, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 76.379997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.551212049750184, "weeks": 38, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 87.980003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.187230237780703, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 98.620003, "confirmation": 76.379997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 90.50; Wave 2 87.98.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 82% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 103, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 90.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.696897161108341, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 76.379997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.602213259668504, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 87.980003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.187230237780703, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 90.5, "confirmation": 76.379997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.854682059245507, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.534176287028441, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 98.62; Wave 2 87.98.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 52% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 75, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 98.620003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.931074280777725, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 76.379997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.551212049750184, "weeks": 38, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 87.980003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.187230237780703, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 98.620003, "confirmation": 76.379997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.873923400919909, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 90.50; Wave 2 87.98.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 82% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 103, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 90.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.696897161108341, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 76.379997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.602213259668504, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 87.980003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.187230237780703, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 90.5, "confirmation": 76.379997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 55, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 75, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 98.620003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.931074280777725, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 76.379997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.551212049750184, "weeks": 38, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 87.980003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.187230237780703, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 0.20152030688861325, "fair_value_gap": 7.980131558284695, "market_activity": -13.270951, "market_dynamics": 0.208728, "relative_strength": -2.427114, "roc30": -5.132623574134651, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 0.2% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 6.436001382240431 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -2.575156238249955 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -4.886483243243247 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -2.985287495504201 } ], "range": { "high_52": 99.860001, "low_52": 75.860001, "position_52": 50.500008333333334, "drawdown": -11.896653195507179 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 18.014027004497873, "average_weekly_range": 3.727081890754804, "active_drawdown": -10.788886307375188 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 76.379997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.551212049750184, "weeks": 38, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 75, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 98.620003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.931074280777725, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 75, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 98.620003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.931074280777725, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 87.803062, "fair_value": 81.477955, "trend_gap": 0.20152030688861325, "fair_value_gap": 7.980131558284695 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 76.379997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.551212049750184, "weeks": 38, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 87.980003, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.187230237780703, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 15.187230237780703, "weeks": 6, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "0.2% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-2.4", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-13.3", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-5.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 46, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 120, "confirmed_pivots": 8 }, "volume_ratio": 85.94521923736018, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 3, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 3, "positive_rate": 33.3, "median_return": -0.94, "bar_width": 4.699999999999999, "average_return": -1.74, "best_return": 0.73, "worst_return": -5.01 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 3, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -3.85, "bar_width": 19.25, "average_return": -3.86, "best_return": -2.99, "worst_return": -4.73 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 3, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -8.97, "bar_width": 44.85, "average_return": -9.51, "best_return": -7.36, "worst_return": -12.21 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 76.38, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 98.62; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 32, "positive_rate": 46.9, "median_return": -0.39, "average_return": -0.69, "median_excess_return": -0.8, "excess_observations": 32, "p10": -6.1, "p90": 5.32 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 40.0, "median_return": -4.83, "average_return": -3.68, "median_excess_return": -0.91, "excess_observations": 25, "p10": -12.57, "p90": 7.28 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 18, "positive_rate": 22.2, "median_return": -3.35, "average_return": -2.9, "median_excess_return": 0.01, "excess_observations": 18, "p10": -17.86, "p90": 12.17 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 12.093657237088296, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 9, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 51% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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